Forecasting the instability of railway lines based on climate changes with emphasis on temperature (Case study: Kerman-Zahedan route)

The existence of climate variability (especially temperature) and more importantly its fluctuations and changes in different regions of the country can have different effects on its railway lines. Fluctuations and temperature changes can affect many different aspects of the rail transportation system, especially rail instabilities; Therefore, evaluating the effect of climatic conditions, especially fluctuations and temperature changes on railway instabilities, requires a more accurate analysis of the relationship between these two variables, which is the goal of this research. In this research, the General Circulation Model has been used in order to predict long-term temperature and analyze its effects on railway lines. For local and regional forecasts SDSM statistical microscale exponential method was used. The data used in this research includes the monthly average data of the synoptic stations of Kerman, Bam and Zahedan with the base period of 1961-1990 and Hadcm3 model data (data of the third generation of the global climate model under scenario A2 and B2). The temperature was predicted for three periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 and compared with the base period. The SDSM model works correctly in the microscale rotation of HadCM3 model output temperature in all three stations with a small difference and has acceptable accuracy for temperature prediction. Except in Zahedan area in some cold months of the year, we see an increase in temperature in all months of the year in the stations and this increase in temperature will reach its peak in 2099.