Determinants of Economic Resilience of Middle East Oil and Non-oil Countries

In the present study, the effective factors on the index of economic resilience in the countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2020 were experimentally evaluated. Firstly, the economic resilience index was calculated based on several sub-indices, and then the effect of factors affecting this index was examined for the oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East. The factors affecting economic resilience included technological variables, oil production, economic openness, political globalization, cultural globalization, and government spending. A dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration approach was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results of the cointegration analysis indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. Based on the results obtained, except for the variable of government expenditure, the other variables mentioned had a positive effect on the economic resilience of the Middle East oil countries in the long run. However, no significant effect was found between the variable of oil production and the economic resilience of oil countries. The variable coefficient of political globalization has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of oil countries. The variables of economic openness and cultural globalization are also in the next ranks in this respect. This is despite the fact that the cultural globalization variable has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of non-oil countries in the long run. Similarly, no significant effect was observed between the government expenditure variable and the resilience of non-oil countries. According to the results, it is expected that as a result of globalization and increasing political, commercial, and cultural communication, the flow of financial, economic, social, commercial, and technological information exchange between countries will be strengthened and economic resilience will be improved by increasing the number of countries with a high level of cultural globalization.