Modeling and scenario analysis of coping strategies for the ripple effect in Iran's food products supply chain: Fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

The supply chain of the food industry is crucial for countries, yet it is vulnerable to disruptions caused by natural disasters like floods, frost, and heatwaves, as well as operational shutdowns. These disruptions can trigger a ripple effect throughout the food supply chain, posing significant challenges for the country. Therefore, it is imperative to identify and analyze strategies to mitigate the ripple effect. This research has been conducted in two stages: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative stage aimed to identify coping strategies, employing thematic analysis. The quantitative stage involved scenario modeling and analysis using fuzzy cognitive maps. The findings revealed 84 primary codes grouped into 21 sub-categories and 4 main categories: "Strategic Management," "Operations Management," "Compilation and Correct Implementation of Laws," and "Supply Chain Management." Analysis of backward scenarios underscored the importance of "supplier relationship management," "cooperation and coordination in the supply chain," and "contingency plans." Conversely, analysis of forward scenarios highlighted the significance of "monitoring environmental changes" and "strategic planning." Focusing on short-term plans, enhancing managers' decision-making and problem-solving skills, refining supplier selection criteria, optimizing supply network design with backup locations, and maintaining safety stock for critical goods are recommended actions for industry stakeholders.