Business targeting in Iran: a hybrid simulation-optimization approach

In order to calculate the employment trend in Iran, the aim of the article is to optimize the employment trend in Iran for the years of implementation of the sixth economic, social and cultural development program (1396-1400). For this purpose, firstly, using the Gauss-Seidel algorithm, the system of dynamic and non-linear macrometric equations and the quantitative goals of the sixth development program, the employment process in the country was simulated. Then, the optimal trend of the working population was calculated from the minimization of the welfare loss function of the policymaker by programming and implementing an open-loop algorithm and solving the Bellman equations. The obtained results showed that achieving higher employment requires controlling inflation at lower rates as well as achieving a higher economic growth rate. The findings of this research are compatible with the theory of new Keynesians such as Gerish, Clarida, Gertler, Menkiu, Walsh and Taylor regarding the necessity of simultaneously reducing inflation and increasing production. Therefore, the jump in production and curbing inflation can be the optimal control of employment and business at the level Make the goal possible. Based on this, the targeting of macroeconomic indicators in the available (possible) territory, complete monetary and financial discipline, independence of the central bank and the use of stochastic optimal control theory in the targeting of development programs are among the policy recommendations of this article.