Financial, monetary, commercial dynamics and macroeconomic imbalance with emphasis on the quality index of good governance in oil countries by using dynamic systems approach in order to improve social development

In this study, financial, monetary, commercial dynamics and macroeconomic imbalances have been investigated with an emphasis on the quality index of good governance in oil-rich countries in order to improve social development during the time period of 2000-2022 and by using the system of simultaneous equations model. According to the results, one unit increase in the volume of liquidity, quality of governance, trade volume and oil revenues, the dynamism of the financial sector increases by 0.37, 0.18, 0.41 and 0.01 units, respectively, and one unit increase in the production gap, rate Interest of the facility and public debt reduces the dynamics of the financial sector by 0.12, 0.12 and 0.17 units, respectively. The effectiveness of macroeconomic, financial and investment indicators depends on the inflationary conditions of countries, which leads to an increase in the interest rate of facilities and an increase in investment costs. Therefore, with the increase in the interest rate of the facility, the effect of macroeconomic indicators on the production gap increases. Also, the dynamics of the financial sector, the monetary sector and the macroeconomic imbalance in all three models have a significant effect on each other. According to the results obtained, considering the financial dynamics and institutional quality, the optimal monetary policy during business cycles is still anti-cyclical monetary policy. It is suggested that the central bank of the oil-rich countries should provide the necessary measures to apply anti-cyclical monetary policy, so that in times of recession and boom, it can reduce economic fluctuations by applying appropriate policy.