Identification and analysis of effective variables and criteria in passive defense by the cross impact method

The five goals defined in passive defense - with the priority of the principle of deterrence - express the need for a comprehensive and specialized knowledge of the variables and their nature in this science. The recent events and happenings in the country and the political geographic region, with an emphasis on people-oriented threats and social unrest, show the more dynamic, ambiguous and unpredictable nature of a wide range of threats. It seems that with the passage of time and the occurrence of developments in different fields, the definition, role and behavior of variables on the one hand and their mutual influence on the other hand have made solving equations in passive defense more difficult.

Variables interact with each other in passive defense, Therefore, in this research, the cross impact analysis method has been used. This study is a descriptive-analytical method and in the field survey process, first with the tools of library study and interviews to define the variables and then to evaluate the effective, influential, key and strategic criteria in passive defense as a system and its stability or instability using The MIC MAC method pays.In the research process, by reviewing the sources and the opinion of experts, the variables were classified into fourteen groups (macro criteria) and forty nine criteria, and then structural analysis was performed according to MIC MAC method.

Based on the analysis in this method, in the matrix of direct influences, the macro criteria (group) of geography has the highest influence/dependence ratio and the macro criteria of building has the highest dependence/influence ratio. Domestic policy, literacy, economic prosperity, economic security is the most influential indicators and Social quality criteria and psychological environment criteria are the most dependent indicators. Also, among the measured criteria, the most influence is related to domestic policy, the least influence is related to the Physics of the building, the most dependent is related to social quality criteria and the least dependent is related to natural geography. The distribution of criteria in the effective-indirect axes directly and indirectly indicates the instability of the system.

In overall discussion and compared to similar studies this research strongly emphasizes the importance of non-physical variables in passive defense.The results of this research also provide tools to control the mission field for the senior managers of passive defense at the national and provincial levels. Also, with the help of the results of this research, it is possible to identify the critical areas in the existing and future structure of the system to focus the organization's activity area and define the project and research from the passive defense management system