Managing the Possible Risks of Port Investment Project Decision-Making under Conditions of Uncertainty

Compared to civil engineering projects, port construction engineering projects have a larger investment scale, longer cycle and uncertain natural environment, and there are potential influencing factors that are considered sources of risk for port investment projects. Therefore, in this research, the design of a theoretical model of possible risk management for decision-making in port investment projects under conditions of uncertainty has been discussed.

In terms of method, this research is one of the qualitative researches and the strategy of grounded theory was used in it. Data collection was done through interviews with experts and financial experts of port projects in the country. The coding process was used to analyze the research data.

The research results indicate the identification of 10 categories for contextual conditions (including risks related to investment costs, legal and governmental decisions, reduced revenues of economic centers, etc.), the identification of four categories for causal conditions (including dependence on investor performance, dependence on external factors, dependence on internal factors, and commercial management of port projects), the identification of three categories for intervening factors (including governmental and legal interventions, interventions related to investors, and managerial and operational interventions of port organizations), the identification of two categories for strategies (including strategies related to managers and strategies related to investors), and the identification of two categories for outcomes (including governmental outcomes and outcomes related to investors).

Applying the results of this research can pave the way for the success of investment projects in the country's ports for investors and help the government and related organizations in policy making and planning for the development of the country's ports.