Optimal cropping pattern considering uncertainty and using mathematical and fuzzy goal programming models (a case study of Saqqez County)

Nowadays, determining the optimal cropping pattern is one of the most important and efficient methods for managing agricultural production and increasing the productivity of production inputs. This research aims to optimize the cropping pattern in three different scenarios for the Saqqez county, using single-objective and multi-objective fuzzy goal programming methods. In the first scenario, the gross profit decreases by 5.0%. However, water consumption, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides decrease by 10.7%, 11.1%, and 12.8% respectively in line with predetermined goals. In the second scenario, the gross profit decreases by 19.4%. On the other hand, water consumption, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides decrease by 20.7%, 18%, and 14.3% respectively in line with the research goals. In the third scenario, with the priority of minimizing water consumption and reducing the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and then maximizing gross income, the gross income decreases by 22%. Additionally, the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and water towards predetermined goals decreases by 17.2%, 52.6%, and 27.1% respectively. It is recommended that, considering the priority of each economic scenario, environmental preservation and water conservation from a policy perspective, the optimal cropping model will be selected.