Modeling fertility in Mazandaran Province: using the "Path Analysis"

To evaluate the direct and indirect effects of different factors on fertility usage the path analysis.

Data were obtained from the research project "Evaluating the effective elements on the tempo and quantum of fertility in Mazandaran Province in year 2000", and by a q11estionn11ire containing three sections (demographics, fertility data and family planning). This was a descriptive-analytic study and sampling was perfumed by a two-stage random procedure. A total of 1343 families were initially included in the study. The research targeted married women aged 10-54 years. We used path analysis to calculate the effect size and 95% confidence intervals for the following set of factors: mothers' age, mothers' education, duration of marriage, age at marriage, and mothers' age at her first pregnancy.

In total 1137 women participated m the study. The duration of marriage showed the strongest positive direct effect on fertility (r = 0.428); the second strongest positive effect belonged to mothers' age (r =0.203). Mothers' education had the most powerful negative direct effect (r = -0.182). Mothers' age also had the strongest indirect effect (r = 0.437), while mothers' education showed the greatest negative indirect effect (r - -0.153). All of the calculated effects were statistically significant (P-Value <0.00 I).

This research illustrated the powerful effect of mothers' education on fertility. There is a potential for effective birth control through modification of factors that have a strong influence on fertility. It is difficult to change all of the factors at once, thus as a first step it might be better to concentrate on duration of marriage and mothers' education.