Evaluation and Comparison of four Different Scenarios of Garin-Lowry Land Use Model in order to Study Employment and Population on Economic Base theory; Cas Study of Tehran

Garin-Lowry Model is one of a few Land use models which has became popular in estimation of employment and population, because of its simple, powerful structure and restricted information requirements. This paper presents evaluation of estimation of employment and population using dynamic Garin-Lowry Model in a ten year period in the region of Tehran, and two scenarios of existence and nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population, and (1) two yearly step-by-step – and (2) a ten years step- time status. In this paper, a level of basic employment enters the region in different iterations of yearly planning period, step by step. Gradual entrance of employments and its allocation in the region causes the gradual changes of effective parameters in selection of service employment location and residential location. Therefore, since there is a high flexibility and movement in selection of employment and residential location in the region, then much better results are achieved in the scenario of existence of movement of preceding employment and population and otherwise scenarios of nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population. For this purpose, corresponding to two considered scenarios and two methods of yearly step-by-step modeling and a ten year step, these four scenarios are modeled. Comparison of product results in their estimations of employment and population with the existing observations represent that scenarios of nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population achieve better results in reconstruction of employment and population in the region of Tehran in the ten year period of 1987-1996.