Nutritional and anthropometrical predictors of the incidence of metabolic syndrome in adults

While many studies have reported cross-sectional associations between metabolic syndrome components, few have prospectively examined the development of the metabolic syndrome and comprehensive set of risk factors in a cohort. The objective was to evaluate the role of nutritional and anthropometrical factors in the incidence of metabolic syndrome in adults. In this population-based cohort study a representative sample of 410 subjects (male and female), aged 18-74 years who were free of the metabolic syndrome at baseline, were categorized based on quartile cut-points of metabolic syndrome components and food consumption. Baseline blood pressure, waist circumference, serum glucose and lipids, physical activity and dietary intake were measured and tested for predictors of the metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome developed in 71 subjects during the subsequent 3.5 years. The best predictors of incident metabolic syndrome were hypertension [odds ratio (OR) by quartile:1, 1.2, 1.6, 4.2, p for trend<0.05], waist circumference(1, 1.1, 2, 5.3, p for trend<0.05), triacylglycerol(1, 1, 2, 3, p for trend<0.05) and HDL cholesterol(1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3 p for trend<0.05). In multivariate analysis increased waist circumference was the optimum predictor [OR 8(4-12.2)]. A prominent dose–response relationship across the carbohydrate and fat intake categories and the odds of metabolic syndrome was observed. This report confirms the role of blood pressure, waist circumference and lipid measurements in risk stratification of metabolic syndrome in adulthood. Interventions that address obesity and reduce waist circumference and an appropriate diet may reduce the incidence of the metabolic syndrome in adults.