Exchange Rate Pass-through on Iranian Raisins Export

Iran is a major producer and exporter of dried fruits such as Pistachios, Raisins and Date in the world. And for that it has an appropriate position on the global market. After Turkey and U.S, Iran has the third rank in the production of raisins and the second rank of the world for exporting the raisins. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of short and long-run fluctuations in exchange rates on export price of raisins by Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL).The data are collected from FAO and the Central Bank of Iran during the years 1350 to 1384 and analyzed using the software Microfit4. The ARDL model results show that in the long run real exchange rate is the main factor on export prices of raisins. Based on findings, it is offered that the monetary politics of the Central Bank should be scheduled in a way to prevent unpredictable exchange rate volatility.