The Impact of Climate Change on Urmia Lake Water Level

The Urmia Lake is one of the largest and most important natural ecosystems in Iran. Temperature increase, high fluctuation in rainfall, and frequent droughts have caused high fluctuations in the lake water level. In this research, the monthly change of the Urmia Lake water level under the climate change condition was simulated by the Adaptive Neuro - fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) from 2000-2100 by the HadCM3 model under SRES emission scenario (A2 and B2). Monthly inputs to the model are the rain on the lake, the temperature mean values, and the total inflow discharge. The effect of climate change on future water level based on the projection of the results from HadCM3 model under A2 scenario has shown the increase in average annual temperature and decrease in average annual lake level by 2.80 °C and 4.60 m, respectively. The B2 scenario model predicted increase in the average annual temperature and decrease in the average annual lake level by 2.35 °C and 3.93 m, respectively. Comparin the A2 and B2 scenarios, it was concluded that the A2 scenario predicted a more critical state for the Urmia Lake.