Estimating of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Iran and predicting them for 2025

In this paper, the major variables affecting the supply and demand of natural gas in Iran are introduced and by using the OLS technique, the natural gas supply and demand models are estimated in the forms of ARIMA. Short term income and price elasticities are 0.44 and 0.084 and long -term income and price elasticities are 8.8 and 1.68. The short -term and long term elasticities of natural gas supply to natural gas export are 0.13 and 0.25. Using the estimated models and in 3 scenarios, natural gas supply and demand are predicted for the year 2025. In the first scenario natural gas supply and demand growth rates will be 3.5 and 4.5 percent per yearly. In the second scenario the annual growth rate of natural gas supply and demand will be 3.9 and 3.6 percent, and, finally, in the third scenario, these growth rates will be 2.1 and 3.51 percent.