Prediction of Drought with the Empirical Transmission Probability Matrix in the Different Parts of Iran

In this research the empirical transmission probability matrix in the Different Parts of Iran has been produced with precipitation data recorded in the synoptic stations in a years period. For producing the drought transmission data matrix, has been used the Log-Normal that fitted to the data in different groups and regarding to the climate specification of the previous year the analogous groups were created. Then with calculating the maximum correction factor of the parameters µ and , the log-normal distribution was fitted to the drought data. By using the one-step and multi-step transmission probability matrix, the formation of drought variations was predicted with means of the past and present conditions of the climate. It will be possible to predict the droughts in the next year with this empirical transmission probability matrix.