فهرست مطالب

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی - سال بیست و نهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1394)
  • سال بیست و نهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1394)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1394/10/12
  • تعداد عناوین: 9
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  • علمی - پژوهشی
  • سید حبیب الله موسوی سعیده شهابی صفحات 217-223
    طی دهه های اخیر منابع آب های زیر زمینی در دشت های استان کرمان به دلیل تقاضای رو به افزایش آن ها به شدت تحت فشار بوده اند. از این رو، مدیریت هوشمندانه و تخصیص بهینه ی منابع آب از اهمیت روزافزونی در بین سیاست گذاران و کشاورزان برخوردار شده است. بدون تردید یکی از مهم ترین ابزارهای تخصیص بهینه ی منابع آب، ارزش اقتصادی این نهاده است که راهبرد توسعه ی بلندمدت کشور نیز بر آن تاکید دارد. با این حال سوال اصلی مورد بحث اینجاست که آیا سیاست های کشاورزی مختلفی که دولت عموما جهت نیل به خودکفایی در تولید محصولات اساسی اتخاذ می کند، هم راستا با مدیریت منابع آبی هستند؟ با این رویکرد و جهت ایجاد چهارچوبی تحلیلی برای پاسخ گویی به مسئله ‍ ی فوق، در مطالعه ی حاضر اثر سیاست خرید تضمینی گندم به عنوان یکی از مهمترین سیاست های حمایتی دولت در بازار این محصول بر ارزش اقتصادی منابع آب زیر زمینی دشت ارزوئیه با استفاده از روش برنامه ریزی ریاضی چند دوره ای مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. اطلاعات مورد نیاز در این مطالعه برای سال زراعی 91-90 با استفاده از اطلاعات پرسشنامه ای از کشاورزان منطقه ارزوئیه، همچنین از سازمان آب منطقهای و سازمان جهاد کشاورزی استان کرمان جمع آوری گردید. نتایج نشان داد که سیاست خرید تضمینی گندم هر چند سود ناخالص کشاورزان را افزایش می دهد ولی با مدیریت اقتصادی منابع آبی دشت سازگار نیست. لذا می بایست سیاست گذاران در زمان وضع سیاست های حمایت از تولید، اثرات جنبی آن ها بر منابع آبی را مد نظر قرار دهند تا علاوه بر تشویق به تولید بیشتر به حفظ منابع آب نیز اهمیت داده شود. همچنین به منظور کاهش و کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آب، همگام با سیاست های حمایت از تولید سیاست دریافت آب بهای تدریجی، بسط تکنولوژیهای جدید و آب اندوز، ترویج ارقام مقاوم به خشکی و البته استراتژی کم آبیاری بهینه نیز می تواند اجرا شود.
    کلیدواژگان: ارزش اقتصادی آب، برنامه ریزی ریاضی، خرید تضمینی، کرمان، گندم
  • محسن جمالی پور، محمد قربانی، علیرضا کوچکی صفحات 224-241
    انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و اثرات آن بر گرمایش جهانی یکی از چالش های جدی کشورهای توسعه یافته و درحال توسعه محسوب می شود. بر اساس پیمان کیوتو، کشورهای مختلف موظف به محاسبه و اعلام میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای شدند. بررسی میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای کشورهای مختلف این امکان را فراهم می آورد تا ضمن ارائه تصویری از سهم کشورها در تولید گازهای گلخانه ای، جایگاه ایران نیز در این مجموعه مشخص شود. این مقاله تلاش دارد تا میزان و ارزش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای اکسید نیتروس (N2O) و دی اکسید کربن (CO2) حاصل از دانه های روغنی تولیدی منتخب در ایران (سویا، کلزا، ذرت دانه ای و سایر دانه های روغنی) را با استفاده از مدل GHGE، برای سال زراعی 91-90 برآورد نماید. نتایج نشان داد استان های خوزستان و زنجان به ترتیب، با تولید سالانه 49/341 و 004/0 تن، بیش ترین و کم ترین میزان تولید گاز گلخانه ای N2O را در سطح کشور دارا می باشند. همچنین استان های گلستان و هرمزگان نیز به ترتیب، با تولید سالانه 47/7841 و 24/0 تن دی اکسید کربن بیش ترین و کم ترین میزان تولید گاز گلخانه ای CO2 را به خود اختصاص داده اند. مجموع هزینه های انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای N2O و CO2 کل کشور نیز حدود 331/27 میلیارد ریال برآورد گردید. باتوجه به یافته ها، اصلاح و تغییر شیوه های مدیریتی کشاورزی نسبت به سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی، مدیریت و افزایش کارایی کودهای ازته مصرفی در مزارع و توسعه سیاست های کاهش میزان انتشار به همراه مالیات زیست-محیطی انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای به سیاست گذاران این عرصه پیشنهاد شد.
    کلیدواژگان: اکسید نیتروس، دانه های روغنی، دی اکسید کربن، گازهای گلخانه ای
  • فاطمه سخی حسین محمدی محمود صبوحی صفحات 242-257
    کشاورزان با انواع مختلفی از مخاطرات طبیعی و غیرطبیعی در فعالیت های کشاورزی مواجه اند و در نتیجه، درآمد آنها از تولیدات کشاورزی با بی ثباتی همراه است. دامنه گسترده ای از مخاطرات در درآمد حاصل از تولیدات کشاورزی تاثیر گذار است. یکی از مخاطرات مهمی که همواره گریبان گیر کشاورزان می باشد، خطر ناشی از نوسانات قیمت محصولات کشاورزی است. پنبه از جمله محصولات کشاورزی است که قیمت واقعی آن طی سالیان گذشته دارای نوسانات قابل توجهی بوده است. هدف از این تحقیق بررسی احتمال و عوامل موثر بر مشارکت کشاورزان در بازارهای آتی و اختیارمعامله به عنوان ابزارهای کاهنده نوسانات قیمت است. با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده، تعداد 200 کشاورز پنبه کار انتخاب شده و داده های مقطعی با تکمیل پرسشنامه جمع آوری شد. برای بررسی هدف مذکور از مدل رگرسیون لاجیت چندگانه استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که در دوره مورد بررسی 94-1393، 35 درصد از کشاورزان تمایلی به مشارکت در دو بازار آتی و اختیارمعامله ندارند. تمایل به مشارکت کشاورزان در بازار آتی 19 درصد و در بازار اختیارمعامله 5/21 درصد است. تمایل کشاورزان به مشارکت در هر دو بازار مذکور نیز 5/24 درصد بوده است. نتایج برآورد مدل لاجیت چندگانه برای احتمال مشارکت در بازارهای آتی و اختیارمعامله نشان داد که متغیرهای سطح تحصیلات، نحوه مالکیت مزرعه، سطح زیرکشت پنبه، درآمد غیرمزرعه ای، تجربه کارکشاورزی، شاخص تمایل به استفاده از فن آوری های نو، شاخص درک ریسک بازار پنبه و شاخص ریسک گریزی از لحاظ آماری معناداراند که در این میان متغیرهای نحوه مالکیت مزرعه، درآمد غیرمزرعه ای و تجربه کارکشاورزی اثر منفی و متغیرهای دیگر اثر مثبتی بر احتمال مشارکت در بازارهای مذکور دارند. در راستای نتایج تحقیقپیشنهاد شده است که به صورت رسمی در برخی مناطق پنبه خیز کشور بازارهایی به صورت پایلوت برای قراردادهای آتی و اختیار ایجاد شده و کارامدی آنها در طول زمان بررسی گردد و در صورت موفقیت به سایر نقاط کشور که دارای مزیت نسبی برای تولید محصولات می باشند نیز این بازارها تعمیم داده شود.
    کلیدواژگان: بازار آتی، بازار اختیارمعامله، پنبه، لاجیت چندگانه، مشارکت کشاورزان
  • علی شهنوازی صفحات 258-271
    این پژوهش به منظور تعیین رتبه ی کارایی استان های کشور در تولید پیاز و با استفاده از الگوهای توسعه یافته ی روش تحلیل پوششی داده ها، انجام پذیرفت. این الگوها شامل کارایی ویژه و کارایی متقاطع بوده و نتایج آن ها با نتایج الگوهای پایه و مقید شده مقایسه گردید. داده های مورد نیاز نیز از آمارنامه های منتشرشده ی وزارت جهاد کشاورزی برای سال زراعی 89-1388 تهیه و با استفاده از نرم افزار WinQSB پردازش شدند. نتایج مطالعه مشخص نمود که الگوی پایه ای چارنز، کوپر و رودز (CCR) از 25 استان مورد مطالعه، تنها توانسته امتیاز کارایی هفت استان را تعیین نماید ولی روش کارایی ویژه (SE) به استثنای استان های کردستان و گیلان، توانایی رتبه بندی کامل را دارد. بر اساس یافته های پژوهش در نظر گرفتن ارتباط میان نهاده ها و ستانده ها در الگوی پایه (CCRCOR) با استفاده از ضرایب همبستگی، منجر به بهبود توانایی الگو در تفکیک واحدها می شود به طوری که تعداد استان های فاقد رتبه در مقایسه با الگوی پایه از 18 به 12 کاهش می یابد. نتایج بیانگر آن بود که کامل ترین رتبه ندی در میان روش های مورد استفاده، متعلق به الگوی کارایی متقاطع (CEM) است. بر اساس نتایج این روش، استان های قم، خراسان رضوی و هرمزگان با امتیازهای 3141/0، 3225/0 و 3934/0 به ترتیب در رتبه های 25، 24 و 23 ام و استان های ایلام، سیستان و بلوچستان و همدان با امتیازهای 9047/0، 9015/0 و 8564/0 به ترتیب در رتبه های اول، دوم و سوم قرار گرفته اند. بررسی ضرایب همبستگی نشان داد که رتبه بندی الگوی CCRCOR، نزدیک ترین رتبه بندی به روش CEM می باشد. چنان چه رتبه بندی از لحاظ کارایی با رتبه بندی توسط شاخص عملکرد مقایسه گردد، مشاهده می شود استان های لرستان، اصفهان و یزد با 74722، 64073 و 60032 کیلوگرم در هکتار با بیشترین عملکرد در سطح کشور، از لحاظ کارایی رتبه های 5، 7 و 8 ام را به خود اختصاص داده اند. از لحاظ تولید کل نیز با آن که استان های آذربایجان شرقی، هرمزگان و اصفهان در رتبه های اول تا سوم قرار گرفته اند ولی رتبه ی کارایی آن ها به ترتیب 17، 23 و 7 می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل پوششی داده ها، کارایی ویژه، کارایی متقاطع، ضرایب همبستگی، رتبه بندی
  • بهاره معدنیان آرش دوراندیش محمد قربانی محمدرضا کهنسال صفحات 272-283
    عملکرد بانک های کشاورزی در کشورهای درحال توسعه، حاکی از آن است که این بانک ها دارای نقش موثری بوده و سبب تقویت بنیه مالی کشاورزان و درنتیجه، تامین نیازهای جامعه به محصولات کشاورزی شده اند. این بانک ها به عنوان اهرم اعتباری دولت در یکی از مهم ترین بخش اقتصادی کشورها نقش بسیار حساسی را به عهده دارند. اما عدم بازپرداخت تسهیلات اعطایی به کشاورزان منجر به عدم گردش مالی مناسب می شود. هدف از این مطالعه اولویت بندی عواملی است که از دیدگاه کارشناسان بانک کشاورزی بر تاخیر یا عدم بازپرداخت اقساط تسهیلات اعطایی به کشاورزان موثر بوده اند. بنابراین در این مطالعه با استفاده از تکمیل پرسش نامه از کارشناسان بانک کشاورزی در سال 1393 و با استفاده از روش تحلیل فرآیند شبکه (ANP) به بررسی موضوع پرداخته شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می دهد که قوانین بانکی بیشترین اثر را بر تاخیر یا عدم بازپرداخت تسهیلات اعطایی داشته است. همچنین لابی گری در بانک، صندوق بیمه، آورده نقدی اولیه کشاورز از جمله مهم ترین عوامل موثر بر تاخیر یا عدم بازپرداخت تسهیلات اعطایی به کشاورزان می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: بانک کشاورزی، تحلیل فرآیند شبکه، تسهیلات، روش دلفی
  • زهرا نعمت الهی سید علی حسینی یکانی مسعود حسین زاده صفحات 284-293
    با توجه به ماهیت توام با ریسک و عدم قطعیت بخش کشاورزی، مطالعه حاضر به منظور بررسی ضریب ریسک گریزی کشاورزان شهرستان اسفراین انجام شده است. در این راستا از جدیدترین روش ناپارامتریک محاسبه ضریب ریسک گریزی و با بهره گیری از مدل برنامه ریزی درجه دو (QP) استفاده شده است. بدین منظور داده های پانلی 100 کشاورز، طی 4 سال (1388- 1391) و برای 14 محصول جمع آوری شده است. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد اکثر کشاورزان منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای درجه ریسک گریزی بسیار زیاد و شدیدا ریسک گریز می باشند. حق بیمه اجتناب از ریسک کشاورزان نمونه مورد بررسی 303113 ریال به دست آمده است. همچنین متغیر سن تاثیر مثبت و سطح ثروت و تنوع کشت تاثیر منفی بر ضریب ریسک گریزی کشاورزان داشته است. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده توسعه بیمه و سرمایه گذاری در زمینه بورس کالاهای کشاورزی به منظور کاهش ضریب ریسک گریزی پیشنهاد می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: برنامه ریزی درجه دو، شهرستان اسفراین، رویکرد ناپارامتریک، ضریب ریسک گریزی
  • علی علیزاده زوارم زهرا ناجی عظیمی صفحات 294-307
    از موضوعات مهم در حوزه برنامه ریزی کشاورزی، دستیابی به الگو یا ترکیب مناسبی از محصولات مدنظر جهت کشت می باشد. در این راستا، با توجه به محدودیت های موجود، میزان منابع در دسترس و مدنظر قرار گرفتن اهداف یا آرمان های مختلف، برنامه ریزی و تصمیم گیری به منظوراستفاده بهینه از منابع و عوامل تولید با پیچیدگی های خاصی همراه می باشد.در نتیجه بکارگیری مدل های ریاضی تا حد زیادی می تواند به برنامه ریزی در این حوزه کمک نماید. هدف این مطالعه، تعیین الگوهای مناسب کشت محصولات زراعی یک مزرعه کشاورزی در استان خراسان شمالی می باشد که به این منظوراز مدل برنامه ریزی آرمانی فازی و حل آن بر اساس سناریوهای مختلف بهره گرفته شده است.بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده از فرایند ارائه شده، با توجه به محدودیت ها و آرمان های مساله مربوطه، چهار الگوی کشت بر مبنای هشت سناریوی مطرح شده برای محصولات زراعی مزرعه مورد مطالعه پیشنهاد گردیدند. الگوهای کشت پیشنهادی به گونه ای ارائه شده اند که زمینه را برای تصمیم گیری بهتر پیرامون ترکیب مناسب کشت محصولات زراعی در شرایط مختلف بر اساس آرمان های مدنظر توسط تصمیم گیرندگان فراهم می آورند. در نهایت، الگوهای ارائه شده با توجه به بیشترین میزان دستیابی به سطح مطلوب تمامی آرمان ها اولویت بندی شدند که بر این اساس، تصمیم گیرندگان می توانند با توجه به اولویت مدنظر خود پیرامون هر یک از آرمان ها، الگوی مناسب کشت محصولات زراعی را انتخاب نمایند
    کلیدواژگان: الگوی کشت، برنامه ریزی آرمانی، برنامه ریزی کشاورزی، تئوری فازی
  • حسن حیدری نرمین داودی معصومه پاشا زانوسی صفحات 308-318
    عضویت ایران در سازمان تجارت جهانی، یکی از موضوعات پر اهمیت اقتصادی در سال های اخیر بوده است. با توجه به اینکه در راستای این عضویت، کاهش تعرفه های بخش کشاورزی موضوعیت پیدا خواهد کرد، لذا بررسی اثرات اقتصادی کاهش و یا حذف تعرفه های این بخش در اعمال سیاست های موثر جهت حداقل کردن زیان های احتمالی این الحاق، ضروری به نظر می رسد. بر این اساس، مقاله حاضر آثار رفاهی کاهش تعرفه های وارداتی بخش کشاورزی از کشورهای منتخب طرف تجاری ایران و بالعکس را با استفاده از مدل پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) که یکی از شاخه های مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه پذیر می باشد و داده های ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی بر مبنای سال 1380، تحلیل می نماید. همچنین در این پژوهش، آثارکاهش تعرفه ها بر مقدار تولید و سطح قیمت ها و انتقال عوامل تولید بین بخش های مختلف اقتصادی بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که کاهش 50 درصدی این تعرفه ها، رفاه اجتماعی، کارایی تخصیص منابع در بخش کشاورزی و تولیدات کشاورزی را افزایش می دهد. به-علاوه، تقاضای عوامل تولید نیروی کار ماهر و غیر ماهر و سرمایه در این بخش افزایش یافته که افزایش قیمت عوامل تولید را به دنبال دارد. این درحالی است که حذف کامل تعرفه های کشاورزی به کاهش رفاه می انجامد. همچنین سهم تخصیص کارای منابع در رفاه منفی می شود، به این معنی که این سناریو باعث عدم تخصیص مجدد منابع به صورت کارا شده و از این جهت باعث کاهش رفاه می شود. البته کاهش تعرفه های این بخش، تولید بخش صنعت را به میزان بسیار جزئی کاهش می دهد.
    کلیدواژگان: انتقال بین بخشی عوامل تولید، تعرفه بخش کشاورزی، تخصیص مجدد منابع، GTAP، رفاه اجتماعی طبقه بندیJEL: F13، R13، D58، Q17
  • ابوذر پرهیزکاری حسین تقی زاده رنجبری محسن شوکت فدایی ابوالفضل محمودی صفحات 319-333
    طرح انتقال آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود که به منظور تامین منابع آب کشاورزی دشت قزوین (حوضه مقصد) در مرحله برنامه ریزی و اجرا است، می تواند پیامدهای اقتصادی متعددی را در منطقه الموت (حوضه مبدا) به دنبال داشته باشد. به همین منظور، در این تحقیق اثرات انتقال آب بین حوضه ای فوق بر کاربری اراضی (الگوی کشت)، وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان (سود ناخالص حاصل از الگوی کشت) و ارزش اقتصادی آب در حوضه مبدا تحلیل و ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، از یک سیستم مدل سازی مشتمل بر مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و رهیافت تابع تولید با کشش جانشینی ثابت (CES) استفاده شد. داده های موردنیاز مربوط به سال زراعی 93-1392 است که از طریق مراجعه به ادارات ذیربط در استان قزوین جمع آوری شدند. نتایج نشان داد که انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با ایجاد محدودیت 10 تا 40 درصد در عرضه آب آبیاری منجر به کاهش 71/1 تا 52/5 و 17/2 تا 32/6 درصد الگوی کشت، کاهش 58/2 تا 21/8 و 18/3 تا 82/9 درصد سود ناخالص کشاورزان و افزایش 23/3 تا 1/31 و 09/4 تا 0/14درصد ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری در مناطق الموت شرقی و غربی می شود. در پایان با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، اجرای طرح انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با در نظرگرفتن ملاحظات اقتصادی در حوضه مبدا توصیه شد.
    کلیدواژگان: انتقال آب بین حوضه ای، اثرات اقتصادی، الگوی کشت، بازده ناخالص کشاورزان، سرشاخه های الموت رود
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  • S.H. Mosavi, S. Shahabi Pages 217-223
    Due to the rising demand of water resources and different uses, has been strongly under pressure. Hence, the optimal allocation of water resources and its management has become increasingly important. Undoubtedly, one of the most important tools for optimal allocation of water resources, the economic valuation of the long-term development strategy of the country is emphasized. Nowadays, To analyze the effect of guaranteed price of wheat on crop production, cropping pattern, soil erosion and quality and investment in soil conservation, demand and price of agricultural inputs is special attention is paid. Due to the country's limited water resources and growing demand for water increases with population, in this study, the effect of guaranteed prices of wheat on the economic value of water resources in Orzoiyeh town of Kerman province using a dynamic mathematical programming model was studied. Our results indicate that increasing the guaranteed prices of wheat will leads to a reduction in the economic value of water and increased the agricultural gross profit.
    Keywords: Wheat, Economic Value of Water, Dynamic Mathematical Programming, Guaranteed Price, Kerman
  • M. Jamalipor, M. Ghorbani, A.R. Koocheki Pages 224-241
    Greenhouse gas emissions and its Effects on global warming in developed and developing countries is a serious challenge. Based on Kyoto Protocol, countries are obliged to calculate and declare their greenhouse gas emissions. Evaluation of emissions from different countries could provide a visual presentation of the countries contributions of greenhouse gas emissions and as well as Iran's position be specified in the collection. In this article, the amount of greenhouse gases emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from the production of oilseeds (i.e. soybean, canola, corn for grain and other oilseeds), by using GHGE Model at 2011-12 crop year were calculated. Based on the findings, the provinces of Khuzestan and Zanjan, with an annual production 341.49 and 0.004 ton of N2O emission are the highest and lowest N2O producers, respectively. In addition, the Golestan and Hormozgan provinces respectively, with an annual production 7841.47 and 0.24 ton of CO2 have the highest and lowest annual production of CO2 emissions. Total environmental costs of N2O and CO2 emissions was estimated about 7.291 billion rials.Total environmental costs of N2O and CO2 emissions was estimated about 7.291 billion rials. In the end, modifing and change the agricultural management strategies, management and increasing the efficiency of N-fertilizer used on farms and development reduction policies with environment’ tax on levels of cultivation was proposed to policy makers.
    Keywords: Greenhouse Gases, Dioxide Carbon, Nitrous Oxide, Oilseeds
  • F. Sakhi, H. Mohammadi, M. Sabuhi Pages 242-257
    Introduction
    Farmers with a variety of natural and unnatural hazards faced in agricultural activities, and thus their income from agricultural production is associated with instability. A wide range of risks in the income from agricultural production have been influenced. One of the major risks that are faced by farmers are involved, the risk of volatility of price agricultural products. Numerous tools for marketing and risk management for agricultural producers in the face of significant risks price available. Futures and options markets may be the most important tool available (to reduce price volatility) is the producer of agricultural products. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of participation of farmers in cotton futures and options markets Kavos Gonbad city, as well as factors affecting farmer's participation in the futures and options markets. The dependent variable for this purpose, groups of farmers involved in cotton futures and options markets have The four categories are: first class participate in both the market, participation in the futures market on the second floor, third floor Participation in the options market and the fourth floor of participation in both the futures and options markets.
    Materials And Methods
    Data for this study were collected through questionnaires and interviews with cotton farmers. To achieve the goal of the Moltinominal logit model is used.
    Results And Discussion
    Content validity of the preliminary study is the first to measure the opinions of experts and professors to assess the validity of confirmatory factor analysis were used. For calculating reliability, the questionnaire was pre-tested with 30 and 0/79 reliability coefficient Cronbach's alpha for the questionnaire was to show that the questions were highly reliable.The results of the tests show that the likelihood of a parent The dependent variable, there is no possibility of combining groups and Hausman test results indicate that the four The dependent variable are independent of each other. According to information obtained 35 percent of farmers are reluctant to participate in the futures and options markets. Farmer's willingness to participate in the futures market and the options market is 21.5 percent and 19 percent. Implies a willingness to participate in the options market to the futures market is higher among farmers. Farmers are willing to participate in both the market is 24.5 percent. With an increase of one unit of the explanatory variables of education, the cultivation of cotton and index of relative risk aversion is likely to participate in the market for futures and options Assuming a constant basis compared to other factors, respectively, 2/6976, 2/446 and 3/8501 unit increases. With the increasing interest in the use of new technology, a single indicator of the relative likelihood of participation in the market for futures and options Assuming a constant basis compared to other factors, in order of increasing 2/9289. With the increase in the relative risk for a single cotton market risk perception index futures and options market participation Assuming a constant basis compared to other factors, in order of increasing 2/4794. On the other hand, the increased relative risk of changing agricultural work experience for participation in the futures and options markets Assuming a constant basis compared to other factors decreasing 0/6253.
    Conclusion
    The obtained results of Estimation of model the variables of education, farm ownership, the area under cotton cultivation, off-farm income, farm work experience, tend to use the new technology index, of risk perception Cotton market index and risk aversion index Are statistically significant. The farm ownership variables, off-farm income and agricultural work experience negative effects of other variables have a positive effect on the probability of participation in mentioned markets. Given the positive relationship between level of education and participation of farmers in the futures and options markets can be suggested that the training seminars about how these markets as a means of reducing the risk of price and performance informing them of the role of research, education and extension services to farmers be held agricultural province. Given the positive relationship between risk aversion and risk perceptions tend to use the new technology on the market for cotton farmers are likely to participate in these markets, it is proposed to develop a more farmers markets are considered behavioral characteristics.
    Keywords: Futures market, options market, participation, cotton product
  • A. Shahnavazi Pages 258-271
    This study was carried out in order to determine the efficiency rank of onion producing provinces using DEA extended models. The results showed that the basic Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes model (CCR) could only identify the efficiency score of seven provinces but the super efficiency (SE) method ranked all of the provinces except Kurdistan and Gilan. The finding illustrated that correlation coefficients in the basic model (CCRCOR) increased the discrimination power of model by reducing the number of unranked provinces from 18 to 12. It was showed that the cross efficiency method (CEM) produced the most complete ranking among others. According to this model, the provinces of Qom, Razavi Khorasan and Hormozgan with 0.3141, 0.3225 and 0.3934 scores took the 25th, 24th and 23rd places and the provinces of Ilam, Sistan & Baluchestan and Hamedan with 0.9047, 0.9015 and 0.8564 scores took the first, second and third places, respectively. The correlation coefficients analysis showed that the ranking of CCRCOR model was more similar to CEM ranking model. If the results from efficiency ranking compared with those yield or production rankings, it could be observed that the provinces of Lorestan, Esfahan and Yazd with 74,722, 64,073 and 60,032 kg per hectare had the highest yield in the country, but their efficiency ranks were 5, 7 and 8, respectively. In terms of total production, the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Tehran and Esfahan were ranked from first to third, but their efficiency ratings were 17, 23 and 7, respectively.
    Keywords: Basic model, correlation coefficients, cross efficiency, ranking, super efficiency
  • B. Maadanian, A. Dourandish, M. Ghorbani, M.R. Kohansal Pages 272-283
    Prioritization of Factors affecting the delay or inability to repay bank facilities to farmers
    Introduction
    The role of credits in agricultural development is very important, especially after implementing land reform and converting subjects to a large class of small owners, the demand has shown itself. Seasonality of agricultural productions usually creates temporary vacuum among farmers’ payments and receipts, thus farmers need to save their past incomes or financial help out of the sector in order to pay current expenses and investments in agriculture sector. Due to farmer's low income, the saving possibility is low and therefore farmers are not in a situation that they can invest in agriculture sector from their savings or purchase inputs
    Materials And Methods
    Considering that the aim of the study was to prioritize the factors affecting the delay and lack in repaying loans, you must first identify the payment factors, it mean that what factors are that affect the lack or delay in repayment of loans granted to farmers.So the factors affecting the delay or failure to repay the loans were identified by using the Delphi method and then prioritizing the factors will be discussed with regard to experts’ perspectives by using the analytical network process model. Analytical network process (ANP) is one of the most efficient techniques for decision making with multiple criteria that it was proposed by Thomas Almaty for the first time in 1982 and as the developed form of AHP method. In cases where lower levels affect the upper levels or elements in a same level are not independent of each other, AHP method cannot be used. ANP technique is a more general formof AHP, but it does not require the hierarchical structure and therefore it show more complex relationships between different levels of decision in network form and it considers the interactions and feedbacks between criteria and alternatives. In fact the main objective of this process is to determine the overall impact of all factors in the face together.
    Results And Discussion
    In the study, factors affecting repayment were divided into the five categories, including farmers, the rules of bank loan payment, banking laws, the government and agricultural Jihad. In farmers sector, the farmers’ primary earned cash had weight of0.3from 1 among five variables. The second stage is the farmer’s experience that it has allocated the weight of 0.23 percent itself. Project failure is located in the third rank. The duration of project restoration and farmer’s activity volume has less weight than other variables. The results in section of rules of bank loan payment show that lobbying in bank is in the first place with weight of 0.28. Insurance Fund was also one of the factors that its lack causes lack of immediate repayment of the loans. About bank laws, deep court sentences also were among the factors that it's lacking may lead to delay or failure to repay loans. This variable with the weight of 0.2 is among variables affecting on the loan repayment. Long process of enforcements is a factor that in bank experts’ perspective, it has weight of 0.19 percent compared to other variables. Experts’ Specialties has little weight compared to the other variables. Agriculture-related factors according to obtained suggest that the accuracy and frequency of visits from project are the most important variables among agents. Preventing the failure of the project is among the factors that had allocated the weight of25% to it. The focus of special funds is among factors that have allocated the weight of 20% to itself that it be considered as an important factor. Jihad experts’ specialty and lobbying are the factors that are not of high importance and they are in grades 4 and 5.Agents related to government that effect on the loan repayment according to the results also indicate that attention to relations in the macro-level and lobbying have high impacts on non-repayment of the granted facilities. In Agricultural Bank experts’ views, the repayment extending policy is among the factors that cause to non-repayment of the granted facilities. This variable has the weight of 25 percent among the other variables. Interest and inflation rates are the factors that have common weight in non-repayment of the granted facilities.
    Conclusions
    The results showed that in bank experts’ views, banking laws are the most important criterion that affects the absence or delay in repayment of installments. Experts believe that if the banking system enters into financial markets strongly, and it will contribute to the development of national economy. Accordingly, it was determined that lobbying in bank is the most important variable of banking laws subset, and it is the most effective factor on the lack and delay in repayment of loans; It means that if the banking legislations is performed correctly and enforced, then the payment of loans is timely and will ease the problems of lack of timely payment. On the other hand, according to bank experts, including measures that affects the delay and lack in timely payment. If the farmers have proper cash and sufficient experience in their own field, they can be successful in the timely payment.
    Keywords: Agricultural Bank, Analytical Network Process, Delphi Method, Facilities
  • Z. Nematollahi, S.A. Hosseini, Yekani, M. Hosseinzadeh Pages 284-293
    Introduction
    In agriculture we face several decision problems in which, among proficiency and sustainability, the risk aspects have to be investigated more and more seriously. Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayen's farmers.
    Materials And Methods
    The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1) direct elicitation of utility functions, (2) experi­mental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3): Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focus on approach (3): inference from observation of economic behavior, based on an assumed relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QRP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximize the decision maker's expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956): Formulate the QRP model to represent the farm's resource base, activities, expected activity net revenue per unit level, fixed costs, variance and covariance of expected GMs which are assumed to reflect the farmer's beliefs and circumstances. Ideally, in constructing a QRP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individ­ual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products for year 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous.
    Results And Discussion
    The results showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results show that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an absolute risk aversion of 0.00003, which is lower than for the subsample existing of farmers in the 'non-wealthy' group. That the absolute risk aversion is a decreasing function of wealth is in accordance with Arrow (1970) expectation. The method used is to calculate the proportional risk premium (PRP) representing the proportion of the expected payoff of a risky prospect that the farmers would be willing to pay to trade away all the risk for a sure thing, pro­posed by Hardaker (2000). Our finding showed that the more risk averse the farmer is, the higher will the PRP be. Farmers risk premium was 303113 IRR. Also note that the 'non-wealthy' group has a larger PRP than the 'wealthy' group. Following Freund (1956), if the net revenue for each activity is normally distributed and assuming a negative exponential utility function, we can utilized the absolute risk aversion coefficient to obtain relative risk aversion coefficient (Rr). Based our finding, Rr vary from 0.31 to 8.49 and the relative coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 4.79. According to Anderson and Dillon (1992), our result showed that the majority of farmers in the study area are highly risk averse. We also studied about relationships between the relative risk aversion coefficients of farmers and their Socio- Economic characteristics. Our results showed that the age has a positive impact, level of wealth and diversity has negative impacts on farmer's risk aversion coefficient.
    Conclusion
    Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayen's farmers. A new non-parametric method and the QRP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. The model used in this analysis finds the optimal farm plan given a planning horizon of 1 year. Thus, the historical mean GM vector and variance-covariance matrix were assumed to represent farmer's beliefs. Our result showed that the majority of farmers in the study area are highly risk averse. According to the results, insurance development and investment in agricultural commodities exchange was suggested to reduce the coefficient of risk aversion.
    Keywords: coefficient of risk aversion, non, parametric method, QRP method, Esfaraien
  • A. Alizadeh Zoeram, Z. Naji Azimi Pages 294-307
    Introduction Agricultural planning by fuzzy mathematical models has been one of the favorite topics for many researchers especially in Agriculture. The models can help the farmers to plan better and more realistic for their various decisions. Fuzzy goal programming (FGP) is a mathematical models for solving the multi objective problems. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to determine the appropriate patterns of crops by implementation fuzzy goal programming model. Materials and Methods This study is performed in a farm in North Khorasan province, shirvan. The fuzzy goal programming model has been used based on different scenarios. The Variables used in the model of this study are the area of cultivated land for crops of Wheat, Joe, lentils, peas and beans. The goals of the problem including water, task force, hours machines, poison, phosphate fertilizer, urea fertilizer, potash fertilizer, cash costs, and incomes. Restriction on land is the only crisp constraint in the problem. In particular, at first the model of the problem has been defined based on the fuzzy membership function. In the present study is used the Zimmermann method to build membership functions related to the cause of the problem. Then, using the concept of volatility, the model is converted to a goal programming problem with nine goal (water, work force, hours machines, poison, phosphate fertilizer, urea fertilizer, potash fertilizer, cash costs, and incomes). Next, based on different combinations of the goals, eight scenarios have been designed based on income, cost, production resources, income-cost, income-production resources, cost-production resources, income-cost-production resources with equal weights, and income-cost-production resources with different weights. The model of each of these scenarios, with nine goals and four crisp constraints, has been solved using vibration concept and by WinQSB software. Results Discussion Based on the maximum level of reaching the goals, different scenarios consist of income, cost, production resources, income-cost, income-production resources, cost-production resources, income-cost-production resources with equal weights, and income-cost-production resources with different weights have been prioritized and four crop patterns have been detected. In first pattern, three scenario consist of scenario 1 (income), scenario 4 (income-cost) and scenario 5 (income-production resources) have combined. The second pattern have made scenario 2 (cost). In third pattern, scenario 3 (production resources), scenario 6 (cost-production resources) and scenario 7 (income-cost-production resources with equal weights) have combined. The scenario 8 (income-cost-production resources with different weights) have situated in fourth pattern, too. For each of the patterns, the level of reaching the goals have been different. In order to determine the appropriate pattern of crop have used the levels of swing by Euclidean distance. The main difference between the outputs of these patterns in the pursuit of culture favorable to the cause of labor, urea, and the income, so that the highest aspiration to achieve the desired level of labor have been to cultivation patterns 2 and 3. The highest ideal of achieving the desired level of urea fertilizer have been 3, and the highest aspirations and achieve the desired level of income of the cropping pattern have been to 1. Finally, the appropriate pattern of crop have selected based on the minimum Euclidean distance among of four patterns. Finally, Pattern 4 based on scenario 8 (income-cost-production resources with different weights) with the minimum swing of the desired level of the goals have selected as appropriate pattern. Patterns 2, 3 and 1 situated in next priorities. Conclusion In agriculture Planning, always looking for different purposes, which may sometimes these objectives are in conflict with each other. Due to this, the goal programming is a technique that can be cultivated in order to achieve proper patterns in agricultural planning, taking into consideration the different objectives. Since we cant always say with certainty about the numbers of the desired level objectives so the absolute numbers of goal programming model results may be desirable to have or not to conform to actual conditions. To resolve this problem, fuzzy goal programming can be utilized where in addition to considering the appropriate level of ideals, fluctuations are defined for each of them. In this study, using fuzzy goal programming models crops on a farm scenario was finally, a model was identified. Indeed, the proposed method of this study can help farmers in decision makings for detecting crop patterns so that they can reach to reach to the right decisions based on the limitations, the available resources and the importance of the goals. We can offer farmers in the decision-making process regarding the appropriate cropping patterns based on different scenarios and considering the conditions encountered in the environment has helped many to the restrictions on the amount of available resources and the importance of goals or aspirations account Adopt decisions for growing crops.
    Keywords: Agriculture Planning, Crop Patterns, Goal Programming, Fuzzy Theory, Scenario Planning
  • H. Heidari, N. Davoudi, M. Pasha Zanousi Pages 308-318
    Introduction
    Economic effects of membership in the WTO in recent years, has been one of the most important issues for Iranian economy. If Iran joints to the WTO, in this process, tariff reduction in agricultural sector will be one of the policies which has to be done. Therefore, investigating economic effects of tariff reduction or even its elimination in this sector will be necessary in running effective policies to minimize the probabilistic losses of accession. Tariffs on agricultural products in Iran are determined merely on the basis of annual country’s economy, and have no long term strategy. Government is just obliged to impose effective tariffs on agricultural products imports, in order to protect the local productions. On the other hand, according to the census of population and housing, the share of agricultural sector in employment has reduced during the past decade. Moreover, Iran central bank information indicates the reduction in the share of agricultural sector in GDP for the past decade. Declining the share of agriculture in production and employment, considering the high number of university graduates in the field of agriculture with rising unemployment rate of this group, motivated the authors to investigate the effects of tariff reduction in this sector on macroeconomic variables.
    Materials And Methods
    This paper analyzes the welfare effects of import tariffs reduction in agricultural sector from Iran's most important commercial partners and vice versa, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Moreover, the effects of tariffs reduction, is investigated on output, price level and the transfer of production factors between different economic sectors. In order to simulate the above model, we used GTAP version 8 which covers 57 commodities and 113 regions with economic information of these regions. This model uses Social Accounting Matrix of countries as data information. Our model includes 3 regions: Iran, ECO and CIS countries as commercial partners of Iran, and the rest of the world, 5 production factors: land, skilled labor, unskilled labor, capital, and natural resources, and finally, 3 production sectors: agriculture, industry, and services. Two scenarios are simulated in this study: first, 50 percent imports value tariff reduction, and zero import tax target rate on intermediate goods for agriculture production in Iran is been considering. For the second scenario, we set a zero target rate for all cases mentioned above. It should be noted that according to Social Accounting Matrix gathered for Iran currently, the average tariff rate on imports of agricultural products from selected commercial partners is 27.67 percent and 7.82 percent from Iran to these countries. Results
    Discussion
    The results show that 50 percent reduction in the tariffs, increases social welfare, while full elimination of agricultural tariffs leads to a loss in welfare. The welfare analysis illustrates that the efficiency of resource allocation in agriculture sector increases in the first scenario, while in the second scenario, the share of efficient allocation of resources in welfare is negative. Despite equal reduction in tariff rate on the value of imports from these countries to Iran and vice versa, trade balance of Iran is been worse, while it is beneficial for trade balance of her commercial partners. However, agricultural sector has positive share in trade balance of Iran, but the negative effect of industrial sector on trade balance, totally, reduces trade balance of Iran in large quantities. The first scenario increases agricultural production, but increase in production is lower in the second scenario. However, the industrial sector production is slightly reduced. On the other hand, more production in agriculture leads more production factors demand, such as skilled and unskilled labors, and capital using in this sector. Moreover, price of production factors has been increased due to increasing demand for these factors.
    Conclusion
    According to our results, 50 percent tariff reduction on agricultural productions imports policy among Iran and here commercial partners will be beneficial for both sides in terms of welfare and agricultural production. However, with this information in hand, full elimination of these tariffs has no positive results. Therefore, policy makers, on the way to join the WTO, should impose the policy of 50 percent reduction in tariffs in short time, of course with subject to bilateral agreement. But according to the prospect of the accession toward full elimination of agricultural tariffs, to minimize the welfare losses due to it, it is essential to apply other protective strategies such as subsidies and production facilities to intermediate goods producers for agricultural sector.
    Keywords: intersectoral transferring of production factors, agricultural sector tariff, reallocation of resources, GTAP, welfare
  • A. Parhizkari, H. Taghizade Ranjbari, M. Shokatfadaee, A. Mahmoodi Pages 319-333
    Water transfer project from branches of Alamoutrood that to provide agricultural water resources of Qazvin plain (destination basin) is in the process of planning and implementation, can numerous economic consequences in the Alamut region (origin basin) to be followed. Therefore, in this study the effects of above inter-basin water transfer on the land use (cropping pattern), farmer's incoming condition (gross profit of cropping pattern) and the economic value of water in the origin basin were analysed. To achieve this goal, from a modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution was used. The required data are related to the year 2013-2014 that by referring to the relevant agencies in Qazvin province were collected. The results showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain with restrict 10 to 40 percent the supply of irrigation water leads to reduction of cropping pattern from 1/71 to 5/52 and 2/17 to 6/32 percent, reduction of farmers’ gross profit from 2/58 to 8/21 and 3/18 to 9/82 percent and increase of economic value of irrigation water from 3/23 to 31/1 and 4/09 to 14/0 percent in Eastern and Western Alamut regions. Also, increasing in the rural people emigration, urbanization development, reducing in the tourism and disturbance in the ecosystem origin basin are the potential consequences of inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain. Finally, according to the obtained results implementation of inter-basin water transfer project from branches of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain by considering of economic, social and environmental considerations in the origin basin was recommended.
    Keywords: Inter, basin water transfer, Economic effects, Cropping pattern, Farmer's gross margin, Branches of Alamoutrood