فصلنامه مدیریت بحران و وضعیت های اضطراری
پیاپی 2 (زمستان 1387)

As experiences in decision making and experimental researches have shown, conventional paradigm, especially classic ones in critical situations don’t work efficiently. Characteristics of crisis, such as lack of time, severs threats, surprise, instability, lack of precise information with a great deal of contradictory data, derangement and tense state, all block prioritizing data, understanding and processing information, finding out different alternatives, assessing their costs and gains and selecting the best choice. Development of natural decision making approaches is responsive to this defect. On these approaches, decision makers select the first applicable choice in critical cituations, and instead of assessing cost-gain aspects of alternatives, make and test the models in their mind. In this article, as well as pathology the process of crisis decision making, The model of diagnosis-base decion making’s been studied as the most important field in theorization of natural decision making.

Psyclogical aspects of manging critical situations are studied in this article. The nature of critical situations, availability of information, lack of time and etc, all affect the personal behaviors. As well, managers in theses situations are affected by external parameters, inicluding organizational culture, standard doctrines and SOPs and group dynamics. Some personal factors, including education and experience can lead people in managing critical states. Howerer, in fact , experienced and skilled people participated in organizations and groups may behave differently. Therefore, Psycoaches, people behave in critical situations, the study concentrates on psychological aspects, why and how for making mistakes.

Roots of the world 2008 financial crisis are reviewed in this article. According to the present indications, the America’s commercial function is the source of the crisis. Reaching back the saved dollars th this countru by America’s business counterparts increased its wealth, including housing, which at last burst into pieces by risky activities of major financial institutions and secondry commercial organizations. After bursting the housing bubble, a great deal of monetary, banking, and insurance companies possession has lost, and the value of stocks in commercial companies descended. In fact, the main loss is on foreign investors in America.
Decreasing oil price and its aftermath(decreasing the price of exporting goods) had been greatly affecting Iran’s economy.
Important challenges may indirectly come to us, indesired decisions in managing the inpact of the crisis have not been found.

The article describes a framework that identifies event, organizational, and individual factors that threaten ethical decision making in organizations facings facing discrete crises or in an ongoing crisis environment. Nine propositions are stated that predict threats to ethical decision making during crisis. A comparison between predictions from our model and from Jones’s(1991) model is made. Suggestions for research to test and refine the framework are proposed.

In the framework of the level 2 Probabilistic safety study (PSA2) project, the Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection (IPSN) has developed a method for taking into account Human and organization Reliability Aspects during accident management. Actions are taken during very degraded installation operations by team of experts in the French framework of Crisis organization(ONC). After describing the background of the framework of the Level 2 PSA, the French specific Crisis Organization and the characteristics of human actions in the Accident Progression Event Tree, this paper describes the method developed to introduce in PSA the Human and Organizational reliability Analysis in Accident Management (HORAAM). This method is based on the Decision Tree method and has Gone through a number of steps in its development. A tool bases on Mathematica was developed to increase the flexibility and the efficiency of the study. © 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crises demand swift and effective decision making. Yet crisis entail unique characteristics that hinder training of personnel with the process knowledge necessary to achieve these two goals. First, crises are, by definition, rare; thus, it is usually not possible for humans to acquire decision-making expertise directly through experience in natural settings. Second, managing crises often involves dealing with massive uncertainty and complexity under conditions of acute stress. Each of these features poses a unique challenge to training. We present an example of a trainer for ship damage control that addresses these challenges. It consists of realistic scenarios, an immersive multimedia interface that helps replicate decision-making information overload, and a critiquing expert system that provides real-time and post-session feedback in human decision-making performance. Experimental results are presented that indicate that the described computer-based trainer has psychological realism from the standpoint of allowing a trainee to practice decision making processes while under a high level of stress