فصلنامه مدیریت بحران و وضعیت های اضطراری
پیاپی 25 (پاییز 1394)

One of the crises facing the communities is security crises. Earthquakes are among the factors that can lead to crisis. Existence of comprehensive crisis management plans can play an important and vital role in reducing earthquake risks. Such factors as the concentration of economic, political, commercial and other vital centers of Iran in Tehran, existence 15 active faults in Tehran and their high risk, dwelling of more than 19 percent of the population of the country in Tehran and existence of old buildings in it, and lack of enough attention to the security crises caused by earthquakes in Tehran in the research studies made us look for an answer to this question: ‘What backgrounds will cause the likely security crises resulting from earthquakes in Tehran?’ Using Cochran's formula, a sample of 400 subjects was selected and the data were collected through the questionnaires distributed among the subjects. Using T-test and a model, it was revealed that failure to meet the expectations of the people after an earthquake in Tehran will lead to security crises due to the creation of relative privation among the affected population.

Effective management of news in media organization embraces a set of planning and decision-making methods which help control crises and encourage public participation which, in turn, results in the reduction of damages caused by them. As a kind of crisis, natural disasters disrupt economic and social activities at a limited or extensive extent and need some kind of planning so that the resulting crises can be controlled. To accomplish this, the managers and staff of media organization and their audiences need three types of information and knowledge to act properly in the face of crises: 1) knowledge of the problem, 2) knowledge of the limitations and 3) knowledge of the level of engagement. Benefiting from the activities of the mass media and gaining access to “recognition of the level of engagement” using the analytic and reasoning method, the present article deals with the examination and processing of information and news aimed at controlling and managing crises and reasonably dealing with natural disasters and crises and having the public participate in such important incidents.

Currently, personality disorder and identity crisis is one of the major problems in the developed and developing countries. The advent of virtual teams as a result of the development of ICT in businesses has made this issue one of the main challenges of organizations. Finding a way to recover from identity crisis in virtual teams is a serious question in many studies. In this article, an attempt has been made to evaluate the ways of recovering from identity crisis on the basis of Imam Khomeini’s (rah.) ideas and viewpoints. His ideas on this issue are important for several reasons: 1) His mastery of the Islamic thought, literature and resources and his extensive dealing with this issue and (2) his experience in dealing with this phenomenon in the prerevolutionary society. Using structural equations modeling and factor analysis, self-belief and cultural autonomy as the recovery factors from crisis identity were examined considering the views of Imam Khomeini. The results revealed a positive relationship between self-belief and autonomy and identity in virtual teams.

Exchange rate and the exchange market have always been one of the most complex economic issues. Political and geopolitical factors, the statements and policies of the central banks of countries as well as the behavior of traders contribute to the establishment of this market. On the other hand, the role of dollar in the capital market in our country is stronger than that of other countries. In this study, our aim is to answer this question, ‘Do the fluctuations in exchange rate and gold price have security implications for the country and the Islamic Republic of Iran?’ Considering four minor hypotheses, we explore the impacts of exchange rate and gold price fluctuations on the political, social, economic and psychological security as the major indices of national security which were extracted from the studies and interviews and seek to prove the major hypothesis, i.e. the impact of exchange rate and gold price fluctuations on the national security. Reviewing the major economic and social theories, the literature of the topic under investigation is explicated. The research method is survey which has been followed using a questionnaire and field study. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods and the SPSS software. Dissatisfaction with the governance system; major economic corruption; social problems and crises; errors in macroeconomic, political and social planning; weakening of social and political participations including elections are the most important findings of this research work.

In the current changing world, politics and security are faced with significant changes. However, there are some questions about these changes: What is the direction of the changes? Which future are they aiming at? Who is planning the current trends in communities? Have our interests been considered in this planning? Offering an image of the future, future studies helps create a quick understanding of environmental variables, predict threats and opportunities and establish the necessary preparations. Future studies aims at understanding and overcoming the long-term drivers of change in order to provide desirable images of the future and maintain and expand human welfare and security. Future studies is among the new fields of study which meets the needs of the modern world in the current uncertain and chaotic atmosphere prevailing the world. Futures Studies is utilized in planning process, strategic management, risk management and prediction of the future. Reviewing crisis management in political and security events and relying on the concepts of future studies and its implementation methods, the present article evaluates their role in managing political and security crises and offers planning the "future scenarios" as one of the most widely used methods for getting prepared for crises and assisting their planning and management. Planning the "future scenarios" is based on trends, events (countertrends), actions and our images of the future (prospects).