فهرست مطالب

اطلاعات جغرافیایی (سپهر) - پیاپی 102 (تابستان 1396)
  • پیاپی 102 (تابستان 1396)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1396/07/01
  • تعداد عناوین: 16
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  • لیلا ثروتی*، محمدرضا ولوی، مریم حورعلی صفحات 5-17
    در دنیای امروز، اهمیت داده، اطلاعات و دانش بر کسی پوشیده نیست. برتری اطلاعاتی، سبب برتری در سایر جنبه ها از جمله برتری تصمیم گیری و اقدام می شود. اطلاعات مکانی، نقش مهمی در آگاهی از وضعیت سامانه های نظامی دارد.
    یکی از روش های مدلسازی وضعیت، استفاده از هستان شناسی ها می باشد که در مقایسه با سایر روش های مدلسازی، قابلیت های بالاتری دارد. برای مدلسازی وضعیت، با توجه به نقش مهم عنصر مکان در آن، بایستی مدلسازی از مکان یا توسعه هستان شناسی جغرافیایی صورت گیرد. با مقایسه منابع موجود، مهندسی دانش جغرافیایی برای توسعه یک هستان شناسی بومی جغرافیایی با رویکرد نظامی و کاربرد در سامانه های نظامی مبتنی بر مکان ضرورت دارد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از یک روش شناسی ترکیبی که حاصل بررسی روش های گوناگون توسعه هستان شناسی می باشد و با استفاده از منابع متنوع جغرافیایی شامل تکسنومی ها، اصطلاح نامه ها و هستان شناسی های موجود داخلی و خارجی، دایره المعارف ها و فرهنگ های واژگان، کتب مرجع، صفحات وب و مصاحبه با افراد خبره حوزه جغرافیا، هستان شناسی جغرافیایی نظامی توسعه یافته است. برای مهندسی دانش جغرافیایی در قالب هستان شناسی، ابتدا واژگان حوزه جغرافیایی استخراج شده و بر مبنای آنها مفاهیم جغرافیایی، سلسله مراتب مفاهیم، روابط میان مفاهیم، ویژگی های مفاهیم، اطلاعات زبانشناختی مفاهیم ومصادیق متنوع مفاهیم جغرافیایی داخلی و خارجی استخراج شده است. این هستان شناسی در محیط نرم افزار منبع باز Protégé و با زبان استاندارد OWL کد شده است که قابلیت جستجوی معنایی مفاهیم و روابط میان آنها را دارد. برای بررسی صحت و پوشش این هستان شناسی، یک طرح آزمون جامع که شامل استفاده از روش های آماری، خودکار و نظرسنجی از خبرگان جغرافیای نظامی می باشد، صورت گرفته است.
    کلیدواژگان: مدلسازی، هستان شناسی، دانش جغرافیایی، کابرد نظامی، سامانه اطلاعات مکانی
  • مجتبی یمانی*، فاطمه یوسفی، انور مرادی، موسی عباسی، محسن برزکار صفحات 19-34
    در این تحقیق به منظور برنامه ریزی کاربری اراضی جهت توسعه گردشگری با رویکرد ارزیابی چند عامله، از 10 متغیر طبقات ارتفاعی، شیب، جهت شیب، خاک، لیتولوژی، پوشش زمین، راه ارتباطی، گسل، پتانسیل سیلاب و پتانسیل زمین لغزش برای منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده شده است. مواد مورد استفاده در این پژوهش از نقشه های مختلف با مقیاس های متفاوت، نرم افزار ARC GIS10، نرمافزارSuper Decisions استفاده شده است، در مرحله بعد متغیرها با استفاده از مدل هایANP و AHPوبر اساس نظر متخصصین امر ارزش گذاری گردیدند. سپس با استفاده از تحلیل گرهای فضایی در محیط GISخروجی های مورد نظر از نقشه های مرجع تهیه شد و ضمن هم پوشانی این نقشه ها در محیط GIS با استفاده ازعملگر جمع جبری، خروجی نهایی تحت عنوان پهنه بندی کاربری اراضی برای پهنه بندی فضایی گردشگری به دست آمد.نتایج در سه طبقه کیفی ممنوع، مشروط و مجاز محاسبه شد و نشان داد که حدود 21 درصد از منطقه واجد قابلیت توسعه گردشگری به طور مجاز است و حدود 42 درصد از منطقه قابلیت توسعه فقط به صورت مشروط با رعایت جوانب اکولوژیکی را دارا است. حدود 37 درصد هم ممنوع بودن توسعه گردشگری را نشان می دهد. در پهنه هایی که جهت توسعه گردشگری مجاز هستند، در صورت استفاده مطلوب، ارائه امکانات و خدمات رفاهی و تبلیغ مناسب می توان از پتانسیل های آن ها به منظور گسترش گردشگری پایدار و برقراری تعادل و توازن اقتصادی مناطق مختلف به ویژه مناطق توسعه نیافته و روستایی استفاده کرد. نتایج این تحقیق را می توان به عنوان شاخصی جهت توسعه کاربری های مناسب و بهینه در چارچوب طرح های اقتصادی در منطقه مورد بهره برداری قرار داد.
    کلیدواژگان: پهنه بندی، کاربری اراضی، مدل MCE، مدلANP، گردشگری، اشنویه
  • احمد پوراحمد *، حسین حاتمی نژاد، مهدی مدیری، اشرف عظیم زاده ایرانی صفحات 35-52
    حفظ و نگهد اری بافت های تاریخی یا بافت های دارای میراث فرهنگی شهرها، از اهمیت ویژه ای برخورد ار است، چرا که این بافت ها علاوه بر ایجاد حس هویت و برانگیختن غرور ملی، کیفیت زند گی شهروند ان را نیز ارتقاء می بخشند . «بهسازی»، یکی از روش ها و البته مناسب ترین روش مد اخله در بافت تاریخی شهرها می باشد ، زیرا در این نوع مد اخله اصل بر«وفاد اری به گذشته وحفظ آثار هویت بخش» د رآنهاست. در هر یک از اقد امات مربوط به بهسازی، مد اخله ای چشمگیر در کالبد صورت نمی گیرد و تنها با جایگزینی عملکرد مناسب فعالیت، از فرسایش این نوع از فضای شهری جلوگیری می شود و با ایجاد تغییراتی در فعالیت های شهری، فضاهای شهری مطلوب ایجاد می گردد . از آنجایی که رعایت « الزامات پد افند غیر عامل » و همچنین لحاظ نمود ن« اصول توسعه پاید ار شهری» در انتخاب الگوی مناسب بهسازی بافت کهن شهری، جزء ضروریات می باشد ، با بررسی اصول حاکم بر این دو مفهوم پی می بریم که تضاد ها و تناقضاتی بین این اصول وجود د ارد . در پژوهش حاضر، عمد تا به مطالعه و بررسی دو مفهوم مهم و تاثیرگذار در الگوی بهسازی بافت تاریخی شهری، پرد اخته شده و بین اصول حاکم بر آنها مقایسه تطبیقی صورت گرفته است. هدف از این تحقیق، طرح موضوع تضاد های موجود میان الزامات پد افند غیر عامل با اصول توسعه پاید ار شهری در الگوی بهسازی بافت تاریخی شهری و یافتن راه حل مناسب در این خصوص می باشد . روش تحقیق از نظر هد ف، کاربردی است و از نظر شیوه ی انجام، توصیفی- اکتشافی می باشد . روش جمع آوری اطلاعات، به دو صورت اسناد ی(کتابخانه ای) و پیمایشی (میدانی) بود ه و تحلیل ها، با استفاده از نرم افزار سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی(ArcGIS) و همچنین به روش تحلیل مقایسه زوجی بصورت استنباطی انجام شده است. بافت تاریخی منطقه 12 شهر تهران با تاکید بر عنصر تاریخی «موزه» ها، مطالعه مورد ی این مقاله می باشد که د ستیابی به نتایج تحقیق را سهل تر ساخته است.نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که برای یافتن مناسب ترین الگوی مد اخله - از نوع بهسازی- در بافت تاریخی، می بایست با تاکید بر رعایت الزامات پد افند غیرعاملواصول توسعه پاید ار شهری، ضمن تعیین اولویت ها در تغییر کاربری ها، زمینه های هر نوع پاراد وکس و تضاد در رویکرد ها را تعد یل نمود .
    کلیدواژگان: بافت تاریخی شهر، الگوی بهسازی، پدافند غیر عامل، توسعه پایدار شهری، پارادوکس، منطقه 12 تهران
  • حامد امینی امیرکلایی*، حمید عنایتی، مریم ویسی صفحات 53-65
    مدل رقومی زمین (DTM)نمایش آماری از سطح پیوسته زمین با استفاده از تعدادی نقطه با مختصات مشخص می باشد. استخراج مدل رقومی زمین به عنوان یکی از مهمترین محصولات فتوگرامتری و سنجش ازدور که پایه بسیاری از پروژه های کاربردی است، همواره مدنظر کارشناسان بوده است. با فراهم شدن امکان تهیه نقاط با مختصات سه بعدی و دقت بالا از سطح زمین با استفاده از لیدار و یا تناظریابی چگال از تصاویر رقومی هوایی، زمینه دستیابی به مدل رقومی سطحی (DSM) با دقت مکانی بالافراهم گشت. با این حال رسیدن از مدل رقومی سطحی به مدل رقومی زمین همچنان موضوعی پرچالش در نظر محققان است. در این مقاله روشی کاربردی در راستای استخراج مدل رقومی زمین با استفاده از ابرنقاط طراحی و پیاده سازی شد. در این روش طی دو روند مجزا و با درنظرگیری خصوصیات ساختاری محیط، عوارض غیرزمینی استخراج شده و پس از تلفیق آنها نتیجه نهایی حاصل گشته است. به طوریکه ابتدا یک روند مورفولوژی مبنای پیشرونده طراحی شد که در آن طی افزایش تدریجی ابعاد المان ساختاری عوارض غیرزمینی شناسایی شدند. روند دوم بر مبنای ژئودزیک مورفولوژی و افزایش تدریجی المان ارتفاعی بوده است. بهره گیری از دو روند به دلیل پوشش های متنوع، ناهمواری های متفاوت و عوارض بسیار متنوع مناطق مختلف صورت گرفت تا عملکرد روش پیشنهادی افزایش یابد. پس از حذف عوارض شناسایی شده و بازیابی مناطق از دست رفته از طریق درون یابی مکعبی، مدل رقومی نهایی حاصل گشت. جهت ارزیابی از ابرنقاط حاصل از تناظریابی متراکم تصاویر هوایی رقومی و همینطور ابرنقاط لیدار بهره گرفته شد. نتایج ارزیابی در 7 ناحیه مطالعاتی نشان از خطای RMSE متوسط 68/0 متر در استخراج مدل رقومی زمین و متوسط 85/4% در شناسایی عوارض غیرزمینی داشت.
    کلیدواژگان: مدل رقومی زمین، ابرنقطه، مورفولوژی، المان ساختاری
  • یاسر امینی *، عباس علیپور، سید مصطفی هاشمی، سجاد باقری صفحات 67-80
    پوشش برف معرف میزان آب ذخیره شده است و درنتیجه آب حاصل از ذوب برف نقش مهمی را درایجاد رواناب های سطحی و آب های زیرزمینی در حوضه های آبریز کشور ایفا می کند. آشکارسازی و تعیین ویژگی های مختلف برف و یخ با استفاده از داده های سنجش ازدور، که در هیدرولوژی کاربرد وسیعی دارد، روش نوینی را در به دست آوردن پارامترهای مورد نیاز هیدرولوژی پدید آورده است. در این تحقیق با استفاده از دمای روشنایی واحد گمانه زن مایکروویو پیشرفته A (AMSU-A)، روی ماهواره های NOAA، و الگوریتم های مختلف بازیابی (رگرسیون، شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی و...) آب معادل برف در حوضه های آبریز استان کرمان در فصل زمستان طی یک دوره 10 ساله (2015-2006) محاسبه و صحت سنجی شده است. به دلیل عدم همزمانی اخذ داده های ایستگاهی و گذر ماهواره، طی دوره مورد مطالعه، درمجموع اطلاعات دیده بانی شده برای 104 روز از پنج ایستگاه برف سنجی که تقریبا با اطلاعات مایکروویو ماهواره ای همزمان بوده اند از منطقه تحت بررسی گردآوری شده است. براساس نتایج به دست آمده، روش شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی با مقادیر شاخص های خطا (11/0=MSE و05/0=RMSE) و حجم آب معادل برف (459270000 مترمکعب) و پوشش برف 83/10 درصد روزانه برای 104 روز انتخابی، برآورد بهتری نسبت به روش رگرسیون چندگانه با مقادیر شاخص های (51/7=MSE و 74/2=RMSE) و حجم آب معادل برف (530347500 مترمکعب) و الگوریتم بازیابی آب معادل برف سنجنده یAMSU-A با برآوردهای مقادیر شاخص های خطا (66/90=MSE و 52/9=RMSE) و حجم آب معادل برف (338985000 مترمکعب) داشت. این نتایج همچنین نشان می دهند که مشاهدات این گمانه زن پتانسیل بالایی را برای آشکارسازی پوشش برف دارد و استفاده از اطلاعات آن برای محاسبه آب معادل برف در مناطقی نظیر استان کرمان که با محدودیت ایستگاه های زمینی برف سنجی مواجه است پیشنهاد می شود. ازآنجایی که این منطقه قابلیت ریزش برف را در فصل زمستان دارا می باشد بنابراین اطلاعات درباره آب معادل برف در این منطقه برای بسیاری از کاربردهای هیدرولوژی، هواشناسی، اقلیم شناسی و همچنین تولید برق آبی و پیش بینی سیلاب ضروری است.
    کلیدواژگان: آب معادل برف، شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی، گمانه زن ماکروویو پیشرفته، استان کرمان
  • یونس خسروی*، حسن لشکری، علی اکبر متکان، حسین عساکره صفحات 81-98
    بررسی روابط مکانی داده های محیطی به عنوان یکی از مهمترین اهداف آمار فضایی برای تحلیل الگوهای فضایی و درک وابستگی های فضایی به حساب می آید. در این راستا تحلیل اکتشافی داده های فضایی (ESDA) به خوبی توانسته است روش هایی را برای تمایز بین الگوهای فضایی تصادفی و غیرتصادفی فراهم آورد. لذا مقاله حاضر تلاش دارد تا با استفاده از ESDA به تبیین الگوهای مکانی یکی از عناصر مهم اقلیمی یعنی فشار بخار آب بپردازد. در این راستا آماره های موران عمومی (Moran’s I) و موران محلی (Local Moran’s Anselin) و LISA به عنوان رویکردهای ESDA به منظور تحلیل خودهمبستگی فضایی الگوهای مکانی فشار بخار آب بر اساس عوامل اقلیمی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. یافته های آماره ی موران عمومی نشان داد که فشار بخار آب در جنوب و جنوبغرب ایران دارای ساختار فضایی بوده و به شکل خوشه ایتوزیع شده اند. بررسی های ماهانه نشان داد که فشار بخار آب در ماه های گرم سال نسبت به ماه های سرد از خودهمبستگی فضایی بالاتری برخوردار می باشد و در نتیجه تمایل بیشتری به خوشه ایشدن دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که با گذشت زمان فشار بخار آب در جنوب و جنوبغرب ایران تمایل بیشتری به پراکنده شدن و عدم خوشه ایشدن در فضا پیدا کرده است. آماره موران دومتغیره برای فشار بخار آب و طول جغرافیایی، نشاندهنده خودهمبستگی فضایی قوی و مثبت و یک الگوی خوشه ایمی باشد. از طرف دیگر رابطه بین فشار بخار آب و متغیرهای عرض جغرافیایی، ارتفاع و شیب حاکی از یک توزیع فضایی پراکنده و ناهمگنی خصوصیات آنها با مقادیر فشار بخار آب است. نتایج رابطه دو متغیره فشار بخار آب و جهات جغرافیایی شیب نیز، بیانگر ناپیوستگی و تصادفی بودن رابطه بین این دو متغیر است.
    کلیدواژگان: خودهمبستگی فضایی، آماره موران، تحلیل اکتشافی داده های محیطی، فشار بخار آب، عوامل جغرافیایی، جنوب و جنوب غرب ایران
  • ابوالحسن مدرس زاده برزکی *، رحیم سرور صفحات 99-110
    استقرار و بهنگام سازی پایگاه داده املاک یک موجودیت زیرساختی و ماندگار برای درآمدزایی شهرداری ها بوده و در امر پایش توسعه شهرها یک ابزار کلیدی محسوب می شود. دسترسی به اطلاعات دقیق و بهنگام وضعیت املاک یکی از مهمترین پیش نیازهای تصمیم سازان و تصمیم گیران عرصه برنامه ریزی شهری است. با پیشرفت فناوری اطلاعات در دهه های اخیر سازوکار سنتی نگهداری اطلاعات املاک نیز جای خود را به سامانه های رایانه ای اطلاعات مکانی داده اند و صدور هرچه عادلانه تر و دقیق تر عوارض نوسازی املاک جز با پیاده سازی یک سامانه مبتنی بر پایگاه داده امکان پذیر نیست.
    در این پژوهش روند و نتایج ممیزی بالغ بر 6600 ملک در شهر نوش آباد(کاشان) در سال 93 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در مرحله میدانی مساحی و تکمیل فرم های ممیزی انجام و سپس نرم افزاری با قابلیت های ورود داده، نمایش داده، تعریف فرمول محاسبه عوارض، تهیه گزارش و صدور فیش طراحی گردید. به موازات آن نرم افزار GIS نیز پس از داده آمایی و رفع خطاهای ترسیمی نقشه ها پیاده سازی شد. تحلیل آماری این پایگاه داده پیرامون شاخص های تعداد ملک، مساحت و مجموع بدهی ها در هر محله حاکی از آن است که وجود یک همبستگی خطی با ضریب 9/0 میان این شاخص ها برقرار است. تهیه نقشه توزیع بدهی در محلات شهر نوش آباد از دیگر نتایج انجام این طرح بود. به موجب این طرح بالغ بر 7459 میلیون ریال فیش عوارض نوسازی برای املاک صادر گردید که در قیاس با بودجه آن شهرداری در سال 93 مبین آن است که این درآمد می تواند به عنوان یک منبع درآمد مستمر سهم قابل ملاحظه ای از کسری بودجه شهرداری ها را تامین نماید.
    کلیدواژگان: ممیزی املاک، سامانه اطلاعات مکانی(GIS)، مدیریت شهری، درآمد پایدار، نوش آباد
  • امیر محمودزاده، ایران غازی، مریم عسکری * صفحات 111-126
    زلزله به عنوان مخرب ترین حادثه طبیعی، عامل تلفات بشری و خسارات اقتصادی قابل توجه در کشور تلقی می شود که این مساله در بافت های فرسوده شهری به مراتب شدیدتر است. چراکه بافت های فرسوده، ساختاری متمایزو منحصربه فرد دارند. مساحت محدوده بافت فرسوده شهر ایلام، 374 هکتار است که 19% سطح کل محدوده را که شامل محلات قدیمی و بافت مرکزی شهر می باشد، در بر گرفته است. روش تحقیق انتخاب شده برای این پژوهش روش توصیفی تحلیلی و میدانی است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش ارزیابی مدیریت بحران زلزله در بافت فرسوده شهر ایلام استکه شاخص هایی همچون نوع مصالح، قدمت ساختمان ها، تعداد طبقات، نوع کاربری، سطح اشغال، کیفیت ابنیه، تراکم جمعیت، عرض معابر و مساحت بررسی شده اند.نتایج حاصله نشان می دهدکه مصالح ساختمانی بیش ترین وزن را به خود اختصاص داده و بقیه عوامل تابعی از وضعیت مصالح بکار رفته در سازه بوده است.نقشه خروجی آسیب پذیری نشان داد که از کل مساحت محدوده به استثنای معابر، 9/8 درصد دارای آسیب پذیری خیلی زیاد،59 درصد دارای آسیب پذیری زیاد، 23 درصد دارای آسیب پذیری متوسط، 6/3 درصد دارای آسیب پذیری کم و 5/5 درصد آسیب پذیری بسیار کم بوده است و در مجموع 9/67 درصد محدوده بافت فرسوده بر اساس شاخص های موجود آسیب پذیرمی باشند. پیشنهادات حاصل از پژوهش در سه حوزه آسیب پذیری زیاد آسیب پذیری متوسط و آسیب پذیری کم ارائه شده است.
    کلیدواژگان: مدیریت بحران، آسیب پذیری، بافت فرسوده، زلزله، مرکز شهر ایلام، AHP، GIS
  • علی احمدآبادی*، امان الله فتح نیا، سعید رجایی صفحات 127-137
    پوشش گیاهی ارتباط زیادی با شرایط اقلیمی دارد. شناسایی تغییرپذیری فصلی رشد گیاه برای شناسایی پاسخ اکوسیستم ها به تغییر اقلیم در مقیاس های زمانی فصلی و بین سالیانه تعیین کننده است. برای ارائه مدل پیش بینی 7 عنصر آب و هوایی شامل بارش، دما و رطوبت نسبی (حداکثر، میانگین و حداقل) برای دوره 20 ساله (2006-1987) در 141 ایستگاه سینوپتیک و کلیماتولوژی به داده فضایی تبدیل شد.ترکیب مقادیر حداکثر ماهانه NDVI از تصاویر NOAA-AVHRR در همان دوره استخراج گردید. سپس عناصر آب و هوایی به عنوان متغیر مستقل و NDVI به عنوان متغیر وابسته در رگرسیون خطی چند متغیره وارد شد. نتایج نشان داد که بالاترین ضریب همبستگی بین عناصر اقلیمی و مقدار NDVI در ماه می به مقدار 82/0 اتفاق می افتد که اوج سبزینگی است. کمترین همبستگی در زمستان به خاطر نبود رشد کافی درختان می باشد. ضریب همبستگی سالانه مقدار مدل با حالت محاسباتی با در نظر گرفتن خطای تصادفی بیش از 93/0 می باشد. در مجموع مقدار محاسباتی ماه می و ژوئن برای سال های 2004 و 2005 به ضریب همبستگی مدل نزدیک است، اما در ماه های زمستان به دلیل نبود سبزینگی ضریب همبستگی کم می شود. در سال 2006 به دلیل خشکی شدیدتر در اواخر بهار (ماه ژوئن) پیش بینی کمتری صورت گرفته است. در زمستان نقش کنترلی دما بیش از بارش و رطوبت نسبی است، اما با افزایش دما و کاهش بارش و رطوبت نسبی از اوایل ماه می نقش بارش و رطوبت نسبی مثبت و دما منفی می شود. فصل پاییز از نقش بارش کاسته و دما افزوده می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: NDVI، جنگل، عناصر آب و هوایی، ایران
  • سعید امان پور، محمدجواد کاملی فر *، حجت بهمئی صفحات 139-150
    یکی از چالش های اساسی در فرآیند توسعه شهری کشورهای در حال توسعه رشد شتابان آنها می باشد که اگر این رشد حالت پراکنده و بدون برنامه ریزی به خود بگیرد مشکلات و مسائل متعددی را گریبانگیر فرایند مدیریتی و برنامه ریزی شهری خواهد نمود. شهر اهواز در کشور ما یکی از شهرهایی است که در سال های اخیر رشد شتابان و پراکنده ای را در عرصه ی توسعه ی اراضی شهری به خود دیده است. با توجه به نقشه ی وضعیت توسعه اراضی شهری مشخص می شود که این روند سال به سال تشدید شده و منجر به چالش هایی در زمینه ی تامین خدمات و منابع زیرساختی در شهر گردیده است. در این راستا با توجه به ضرورت مساله در مطالعه ی حاضر سعی شده است به روش «توصیفی-تحلیلی» به ارزیابی تغییرات کاربری اراضی در کلانشهر اهواز مابین سال های 1989 تا 2013 پرداخته شود. گردآوری اطلاعات در بخش توصیفی از طریق مطالعه اسناد کتابخانه ای و در بخش تحلیلی پژوهش از طریق استخراج تصاویر ماهواره ای (TM (Thematic Mapper برای سال های (1985) و (2013) از محدوده شهر اهواز انجام گرفته است. جهت انجام تحلیل‏های آماری و بصری بر روی تصاویر ماهواره‏ای، از نرم‏افزارهای Envi 4.8 و Arc GIS 10.2 استفاده شده است. نتایج به‏دست آمده، نشان می‏دهد که طی سال های 1989 تا 2013 نزدیک به 23 درصد از سهم اراضی بایر و زمین های کشاورزی کم شده و در طرف مقابل سهم اراضی ساخته شده از 35/16 به 55/34 افزایش یافته است که بیشترین آنها مربوط به مناطق جنوبی و شرقی اهواز (قسمت هایی از مناطق 4و 5 و 6 شهرداری می باشد).
    کلیدواژگان: کاربری اراضی، تصاویر ماهوارهای، نرم افزار Envi، اهواز
  • سونیا مهری، خدیجه حاجی، وریا علیزاده، رئوف مصطفی زاده * صفحات 151-162
    خشکسالی به عنوان کمبود طبیعی بارش در طی دوره ای از زمان است که یک بحران مخاطره آمیز برای محیط زیست و حیات گونه هایزیستی محسوب می شود. بنابراین در زمان وقوع بحران خشکسالی، عدم وجود فرصت و منابع کافی موجب صدمات جدی می گردد. مدیریت بحران در برگیرنده مجموعه ای از اقدامات واکنشی می باشد که می تواند موجب کاهش با تعدیل اثرات خشکسالی ها گردد. لذا تحلیل نمایه های اندازه گیری خشکسالی برای پیش بینی و ارزیابی مکانی و زمانی این پدیده به منظورمدیریت آن ضروری به نظر می رسد. در این پژوهش، وضعیت خشکسالی و تحلیل زمانی و مکانی آن در ایستگاه های استان کردستان با استفاده از شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (SPI)، توسط نرم افزار DrinC درمقیاس های زمانی 3، 6 و 12 ماهه انجام شده است. براساس حداکثر طول دوره ی آماری موجود، آمار سال های 2000 تا 2014 در 9 ایستگاه هواشناسی استان کردستان برای تحلیل ها مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل ازبررسی شدت خشکسالی طی دوره مورد مطالعه نشان داد در سراسر استان کردستان در بین هر سه مقیاس زمانی شدیدترین خشکسالی مربوط به ایستگاه دهگلان در سال 2006- 2005 اتفاق افتاده است. هم چنین طولانی ترین دوره خشکسالی(بسیارشدید) دوره 17 ماهه مربوط به ایستگاه قروه می باشد. نتایج تحقیق تغییرات وقوع خشکسالی با درجات متفاوت را در مقیاس های مختلف زمانی و مکانی در منطقه مورد مطالعه مورد تائید قرار می دهد. هم چنین بر اساس نتایج، ایستگاه دهگلان اولویت اول را از نظر شدت خشکسالی در بین ایستگاه ها و ظفرآباد (دیواندره) آخرین اولویت را دارد.در نتیجه پیش بینی و مدیریت بحران خشکسالی می تواند یکی از اقدامات موثر در کاهش خسارات این پدیده اقلیمی خصوصا در مناطق حساس باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: دوره های خشکسالی، شاخص بارش استاندارد، استان کردستان، مقیاس های زمانی، نرم افزار DrinC
  • احمدرضا قاسمی*، مرتضی موگویی صفحات 163-173
    استان چهارمحال بختیاری تامین کننده اصلی آب برای دو استان خوزستان و اصفهان می باشد و همواره بحث انتقال آب بین حوضه ای برای این دو استان مطرح بوده است. علیرغم این تاکنون مطالعه جامعی برروی تغییرات دبی رودخانه های این استان انجام نشده است تا بتوان درباره آینده انتقال آب قضاوت درستی انجام داد. بر همین اساس تحقیق حاضر با هدف بررسی تغییرات دبی 12 رودخانه مهم استان چهارمحال و بختیاری انجام گرفت. برای بررسی نوع تغییرات زمانی دبی از روش من- کندال و جهت تعیین شدت یا مقدار تغییرات دبی از روش تخمین گر سن استفاده شد. همچنین با استفاده از روش پتیت وقوع سال تغییر ناگهانی در سری های زمانی دبی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در مقیاس فصلی و سالانه دبی در تمام ایستگاه ها دارای روند کاهشی می باشد. مقدار کاهش در مقیاس سالانه بین 8/0 متر مکعب بر ثانیه در ایستگاه گردبیشه تا 17 متر مکعب بر ثانیه در ایستگاه بهشت آباد متغیر است. در مقیاس فصلی نیز نتایج حاکی از کاهش معنی دار دبی در تمام ایستگاه های مورد بررسی در فصل تابستان است در حالی که در فصل زمستان به جز در دو ایستگاه سولگان و ده چشمه، در بقیه روند معنی داری مشاهده نشد. نتایج آزمون پتیت نشان داد که در اغلب ایستگاه ها سال تغییر ناگهانی (معنی دار از نظر آماری) در سری های زمانی دبی در اوایل دهه 1370 اتفاق افتاده است. همچنین تحلیل دبی های فرین این رودخانه ها نشان داد که علاوه بر میانگین، مقادیر کمینه و بیشینه دبی نیز دچار افت شدید شده اند.
    کلیدواژگان: تغییرات دبی، تخمینگر سن، روش پتیت، چهارمحال و بختیاری
  • علی محمدپور *، امیر حمزه ضرغامی، سعید ضرغامی صفحات 175-190
    پدافند غیرعامل از جمله موضوعاتی است که در طرح های شهری و برنامه های آن با مباحثی مانند مکانیابی کاربری ها و مقاوم سازی بناها در نظر گرفته شده است. این مباحث به دنبال کاهش خسارت و افزایش توان مقاومت در شهر با رعایت اصول پدافند غیرعامل در تاسیسات حیاتی، حساس، مهم و مدیریتی می باشد. شهر سنندج به عنوان مرکز استان کردستانو قرار گیری مراکز مهم مدیریتی و تاسیسات حیاتی و مهم در این شهر از اهمیت زیادی برخودار است. لذا پژوهش حاضر به بررسی و شناخت عناصر و تاسیسات و پهنه های آسیب پذیر شهر سنندج با رویکرد پدافند غیرعامل پرداخته است. بر این اساس پنج معیار اصلی و یازده زیر معیار بر اساس نظر کارشناسان به عنوان عناصر و پهنه های مهم شهر سنندج فهرست بندی شده است. برای امتیاز دهی به این معیارهای از 14 کارشناس به روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و جهت تحلیل آن از نرم افزار Expert Choice استفاده شده است. بیشترین میزان آسیب پذیری به ترتیب مربوط به معیار شریان حیاتی با امتیاز 623/0، مراکز مدیریت بحران با امتیاز 300/0 و کمترین میزان آسیب پذیری مربوط به معیار مراکز پشتیبانی با 029/0 می باشد. این امتیازها با استفاده از نرم افزار Arc Map درون یابی شده و مناطق آسیب پذیر مشخص شده است. سپس برای بررسی کاهش آسیب پذیری شهر با استفاده از مدل SWOT اقدام به تدوین راهبردها و جهت اولویت بندی آنها از مدل QSPM استفاد شده است. نتایج پژوهش گویای آن است که منطقه پنج شهرداری سنندج به دلیل داشتن تاسیسات حیاتی و حساس و مهم و عدم رعایت اصول پدافند غیرعامل، به ویژه در مکانیابی و استتار و اختفاء به عنوان پهنه آسیب پذیر شهر شناخته شده است. در نهایت می توان بیان کرد که شهر سنندج از نظر اصول پدافند غیرعامل دارای نقاط ضعف می باشد. بر اساس مدل های بکار رفته، موقعیت شهر رقابتی است که در این زمینه راهبردهای مناسب با موقعیت رقابتی ارائه شده است.
    کلیدواژگان: پهنه ها و عناصر آسیب پذیر، پدافند غیرعامل، مدل AHP، شهر سنندج
  • Seyyed Yaser Hakimdoust *، Alimohammad Pourzeidi، Mohammad Saleh Gerami صفحات 191-203
    Introduction Precipitation is an atmospheric factor, its quantity and distribution vary considerably in different parts of the planet, and is one of the most influential climatic elements that has always been influenced by the climate. Its amount changes in time and place continuously.Knowing the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is a useful tool for understanding how non-uniform distribution of water resources and vegetation in each region.Precipitation occurs when the wet weather and the climb factor exist both in the region.In other words, the wet air must rise to a certain height so that it can reach the saturation point due to the subsequent cooling down, and in the next, the cloud produces precipitation.The absence of any of these two factors prevents the occurrence of precipitation.
    Rainfall variation is considered as a key factor in the structure and functioning of ecosystems, but its impact on scale and magnitude is much less than its spatial variation.The climatic element, especially precipitation, has significant changes in time periods.Therefore, the recognition of the element of precipitation as one of the two elements of the climate and its changes in different times and places allows the optimal utilization of the natural environment.The amount and spatial distribution of rainfall is a fundamental factor for decision making, design and evaluation of hydrological models as well as water management and planning.Temporal spatial variations have diverse and varied impacts on the management and planning of water resources along a water basin and nationally.Climate change is one of the factors affecting the change of water resources.Precipitation, as a highly variable element, has always been a concern for climatologists and waterologists as a fundamental factor in the blue balance. The extreme variability of rainfall along the time-space has a variety of study approaches.The purpose of this research is to identify the conditions of rainfall in the Mazandaran province. Therefore, the location of rainfall in this province was investigated.In this regard, identification of the effective factors of the occurrence of these rainfall in different seasons and their role in the province has been addressed and its results will be available as a scientific and practical solution.
    Materials In this study, for the purpose of identifying the rainfall in the province of Mazandaran, five years rainfall from 2006-2010 has been used from a total of 12 synoptic stations.Using extracted data from precipitation graphs, rainfall of more than 10 mm was extracted in the studied area.Then the data were categorized into four parts: spring, summer, autumn, winter and year; to create the database, they entered the SPSS and ARC GIS10 software.In the spatial analysis of the data, the semi-modification of these models has been used, which was calculated using ARC GIS10 software.The methods used in the zoning of Kriging and IDW models for fitting include: IDW with three potentials of 1,2,3, and the Kriging method with spherical, circular, exponential, Gaussian, and spherical models, which is performed with conventional Kriging technique.Also, for statistical comparison of models, root mean square error of RMSE, MAE, RMSE and their correlation coefficient were used.Then, optimal mapping based on multivariate regression was fitted based on the simulation method and the recursive method of six variables in rainfall generation including latitude and longitude, number of rainfall days, elevation, relative humidity and dew point temperature. The effects of these factors on rainfall in the province will be evaluated in different seasons and annual.
    Results&Discussion The results of the spring survey show that there were 5 stations out of 12 stations without rainy rainfall.These stations are located in the plain and in the mountain range of the region.The analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between variables is R^2= 967, which indicates a strong relationship between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable.85.8% of rainfall in the spring season in Mazandaran province depends on these variables. In the summer, only 2 stations in the province did not experience rainfall ranges, both of which were at high altitudes and include the station Alasht and Kyasar.Variables show a very strong relationship in summer with a correlation coefficientofR^2=0.995.Which is 0.99% of rainfall in the Mazandaran province depends on these six variables.The fall season is one of the high seasons in the province of Mazandaran province. Only one station (siahbisheh) has been registered from 12 storm rainfall stations.Estimates show that the six variables analyzed in this chapter with a correlation coefficient of R^2 = 0.983 represent a strong correlation.The results of the winter season show that all stations in Mazandaran province have rainfall, although it includes fewer days than the autumn season.All stations experience at least one day at Alasht Station for up to 7 days in Ramsar.The results of the analysis show that in winter, the correlation coefficient is R^2 = 0.996.
    Conclusion The method used in the zoning kriging and IDW models for fitting include: IDW with three possible 1,2,3, kriging with spherical model is a model of, circular, exponential, Gaussian and spherical - is the ordinary kriging technique was conducted to assess the accuracy of each map generated by determining the best model calculated health. Also, statistical models for comparing the square root error RMS, MAE, RMSE and correlation coefficient was used for the best model for zonation model IDW and ordinary kriging with the 1.3 was a circle. After extracting the optimal plan based on multivariate regression models and ENTER precipitation method Backward method retrograded create six variables, including the length and breadth of geography, number of days of rainfall, altitude, relative humidity and dew point temperature were fitted. Results show that the six-variable correlation of 0.97 in spring, 0.99 in summer, 0.98 in autumn, winter is 0.99 and about 0.99 per year., Which indicates a strong relationship between these six variables Showers Mazandaran province.
    کلیدواژگان: Showers، Geostatistics، Kriging، Multivariate regression، Mazandaran
  • نفیسه رضاپور اندبیلی*، مرضیه علیخواه اصل صفحات 205-216
    ارزیابی توان اکولوژیک فرایندی است که تلاش دارد از طریق تنظیم رابطه انسان با طبیعت، توسعه ای در خور و هماهنگ با طبیعت را فراهم سازد. منطقه حفاظت شده آق داغ به مساحت 93889 هکتار، در جنوب استان اردبیل (جنوب شهرستان خلخال) و شمال استان زنجان واقع گردیده است. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی توان اکولوژیک برای کاربری جنگل داری در منطقه حفاظت شده آق داغ و بررسی میزان انطباق کاربری فعلی جنگلداری با توان اکولوژیک منطقه برای کاربری مذکور می باشد. فرآیند ارزیابی توان اکولوژیکی در پژوهش حاضر شامل سه بخش اساسی است که پس از شناسایی منابع اکولوژیکی، تجزیه و تحلیل و جمع بندی داده ها، توان اکولوژیکی در محدوده ی مطالعاتی تعیین گردیده است. لایه های اطلاعاتی مورد استفاده در این مطالعه عبارتنداز: خاکشناسی، اقلیم، پوشش گیاهی، شکل زمین، هیدرولوژی و کاربری اراضی. بررسی ها نشان می دهد توان جنگلداری با مساحت کلی 5/11293 هکتار بوده که نتایج حاکی از عدم وجود طبقه 1، 2 و 7 جنگلداری به دلیل وضعیت بیوفیزیکی و به ویژه ارتفاعات و اقلیم منطقه می باشد، به طوری که تنها طبقات 3، 4، 5 و 6 جنگلداری در حوضه مورد مطالعه وجود دارد. الگوهای کاربری طبقات جنگلی شناسایی شده، با ارزیابی توان آن ها در منطقه منطبق بوده و در وضع موجود نیز دارای کاربری جنگلی می باشد ولی طبقه 6 جنگلی در حال حاضر دارای کاربری مرتعی می باشد و از چهار طبقه جنگل داری موجود در منطقه سهم طبقه شش جنگلی از همه بیشتر است. یافته ها حاکی از آن است که این منطقه محدودیت زیادی برای رشد جنگل تجاری دارد.
    کلیدواژگان: منطقه حفاظت شده آق داغ، ارزیابی توان اکولوژیکی، زونبندی، سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی
  • صدیقه کیانی سلمی*، سید حجت موسوی، پریسا یگانه دستگردی صفحات 217-228
    به منظور دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، تشریح و ارزیابی وضعیت محیط زیست و منابع، پیش از هرگونه برنامه ریزی لازم و ضروری است. اهمیت ارزیابی سرزمین تا به آنجاست که چنانچه سرزمین بالقوه فاقد توان اکولوژیکی مناسب برای اجرای کاربری خاصی باشد (حتی در صورت نیاز اقتصادی، اجتماعی به وجود آن کاربری) اجرای آن طرح نه تنها سبب بهبود وضعیت زیست محیطی منطقه نمی گردد بلکه تخریب بیشتر محیط را نیز به ارمغان خواهد آورد. از آنجا که گردشگری رابطه تنگاتنگی با محیط دارد، ارزیابی توان محیطی در این حوزه اگر به گونه ای شایسته صورت پذیرد موجب اصلاح طرح ها و پیشگیری از بروز ناکامی در توسعه صنعت گردشگری می شود، همچنین تخریب پیش بینی نشده محیط زیست را تقلیل داده و جلوگیری می کند. پژوهش پیش رو با هدف ارزیابی توان اکولوژیک محیط برای تعیین مناطق مستعد طبیعت گردی با تاکید بر توسعه پایدار گردشگری در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری انجام شده است. به منظور رسیدن به این هدف از دو روش اسنادی و میدانی استفاده شده است. در قالب فرآیند ارزیابی توان اکولوژیک از طریق سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی(GIS)، از روش سیستمیک مخدوم در ارزیابی توان تفرج استفاده گردید. با توجه به این که موضوع پژوهش بررسی توان طبیعت گردی است، صرفا پارامترهای مورد نیاز تفرج گسترده ( طبیعت گردی) مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. یافته ها حاکی از آن است، حدود32/1961 کیلومتر مربع از سطح استان برای تفرج گسترده (طبقه یک) مناسب است که شهرستان لردگان بیشترین سطح مناسب و شهرستان بروجن، کمترین سطح را به خود اختصاص داده اند.
    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی توان، طبیعت گردی، سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، مدل مخدوم، چهارمحال و بختیاری
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  • Leila Servati *, Mohammad Reza Valavi, Maryam Hourali Pages 5-17
    In today world, importance of data, information and knowledge is unneglectable. Information superiority leads to decision making superiority and more effective actions. Within the military domain, various information systems now utilized to support commanders and troops being aware and take control of the situation. Location information is one of the important aspects of the military information systems to provide situation awareness. Regarding the extensive applications oflocation based military information systems, it is important to improve intelligence, knowledge base and integration of such systems. One of the current challenges in military information systems is that the applied systems are used as separate islands with no common protocol and language. In addition, computerized systems do not consider the meaning of transferred terms and concepts. In other words, computerized military systems are not capable of meaningful relation at a conceptual level with each otherand also with humans. Moreover, data bases with different formats and data structure are not using similar method for modelling and storage of information and thus, work as independent information silos. Furthermore, people knowledge is not coded and rarely modelled for future re-utilization. Within this regard, one of the modelling methods is ontology that seems to be more effective than other methods. Ontologies provide an explicit and official description of common conceptualization. It implies that ontologies represent whatever exist in one information domain as concepts, relations, properties, rules and actual examples. In order to represent those concepts, ontologies employ a standardized and computerized official language. Common conceptualization inontology means that the produced concepts should be accepted by knowledge community of the interest domain so that the ontology become capable of providing a common language amongst people within same domain such as military geography. Due to importance ofthe location element, there is a need to develop specific geographical ontology to be able to use for such applications. A review of existing ontologies reveals that there are problems and challenges to employ available ontologies for military applications. For instance, some of the existing ontologies are only a hierarchy of concepts that cannot be called ontology to fulfill military requirements. Moreover, some ontologies are limited for specific geographical domains and others do not have complete coverage of geographical concepts which is required in military systems. In general, there is a need for geographical knowledge engineering and a localized geographical ontology development. Such ontology should contain geographical concepts, properties and relations with a military approach to be used in location based military systems. In fact, development of geographical ontology provides official common language and standardization in the domain of military geography. In addition, it helps to model geographical knowledge and establish a conceptual infrastructure for location based systems. Consequently, various geographical ontology-based systems can be developed with vertical and horizontal integration. Such ontology-based systems eliminate the problem of isolated data and information storage in separate islands, prevent missing data sources and support re-utilization of knowledge sources. Moreover, such geographical ontology-based systems can interact with each other and with humans in a higher meaningful conceptual level. In order to develop such ontology-based system, a semi-automatic method is utilized for knowledge engineering and ontology development. Applied method is a result of analyzing different methods to remove deficiencies in early stages of theontology development. Thus, a set of best applicable methods for geographical knowledge engineering is utilized for ontology development. Main clusters of geographical existence, geographical process and geographical properties are defined in the developedgeographical ontology. Other clusters of concepts include causing factor, military concepts, time concepts, situation concepts and general status related concepts. The developed ontology includes 4161 geographical concepts, 319 concept properties, 426 relations amongst concepts and 5527 actual examples of modelled geographical concepts using the proposed ontology.
    In this research, the developed geographical ontology is using web protégéopen source software. The web based version of the software enable easy access to developer environment from different locations while enables team work implementation in such a way that different people or groups of experts can access to ontology development and share thoughts and tasks. Moreover, it is possible to track changes, monitor and supervise the development process. It is also possible to program the ontology using the OWL standard language to be used in other systems. In general, the developed geographical ontology is capable to be applied in military location-based systems while it can be also deployed as support for other military and security ontologies. Finally, in order to assess quality, credibility and coverage of the developed ontology is examined and verified using a comprehensive mix of statistical, automatic and military geography expert opinions.
    Keywords: Modeling, Ontology, Geographic knowledge, Military application, Location information system
  • Mojtaba Yamani *, Fatemeh Yusefi, Anvar Moradi, Musa Abbasi, Mohsen Barzkar Pages 19-34
    Introduction Ecological capability assessment (landuse planning) as follows: Regulate the relationship between man, land and human activities on land to sustainable use of all human resources and land space to improve the material and spiritual position in the course of time. Planning recreational outing as a way of protection functions in the areas of natural resources management work experience, they also provide the dynamic field of protection (Laurance at all, 2005: 457). Recreationplanning as a strategy management experience in the areas of natural resources, provide dynamic conservation (Laurance at all, 2005: 457). The aim of this study is Zoning Planning with the approach of ANP and AHP models for tourism development. Based on multi-agent approach to special assessment process network analysis is based on various environmental data. These models are presented based on various environmental data. This research ultimately assessment and will identify has the ability to develop tourism zones in the city limits of Oshnavieh. The results of this research can be used as an indicator for the development of appropriate and optimum applications.
    Materials & Methods Oshnavieh city located in the southwestern province of West Azerbaijan. In this study, in order to landuse planning for tourism development with evaluation of a multi- factor approach, were used for the study area of 10 variables Elevational classes, slope, aspect, soil, lithology, land cover, road of communication, fault, flood potential and landslide potential. In this study, different maps with different scales, RC GIS10 and Super Decisions software are used. In the nextstage were valuation variables using the ANP and AHP models based on expert opinion. Then, was prepared the desired output of the reference maps by using of analysts spatial in GIS and the overlaying this maps in GIS environment by using Algebraic sum, respectively the final output as land use zoning scheme for the development of spatial tourism. Distributed were 15 questionnaires among specialists for each model (5 specialist land use, 5 tourism specialist and 5 specialist geomorphology) for valuation. After analyzing the questionnaires, to calculate the final weights of each criteria and sub-criteria (according to internal communications) was used Super Decisions software.
    Results & Discussion In this study, were determined the evaluation criteria and their weights, correctly and with acceptable accuracy (under 1/0) by reviewing the literature, experts and paired in the form of ANP and AHP. Finally after the overlay was obtained zoning map for tourism development model based on AHP and ANP in the city Oshnavieh. The maps are in three categories: permitted, conditional and prohibited zones classified and the area was calculated. In the ANP model 7/21 percent and inthe AHP 1/21 percent of the study region has a permitted of tourism development and capability are better for tourism development. Most of the area has a slope between 0 to 8 percent and also the type of pasture lands are semi-intensive. The potential forflooding and landslides in these areas is low and very low so these areas are ecologically appropriate land use is extensive. Because the user of nature tourism is compatible with all users within this class. Conditioned class included 8/42 percent in model ANP and 42/08 percent in AHP model in the study area. In these areas, provided that the adherence to ecological aspects of development are extensive. Prohibited class included about 36 percent of the region. Any tourism development is prohibited becauseof its agricultural land and steep in parts, potential flooding and landslides. A large part of central and northern parts of the East region's capacity for sustainable development of tourism show better. Although these results are based on two models aredifferent, but generally close together.
    Conclusion The results were calculated in three quality groups: Permited, forbidden and conditional. It was revealed that 21 percent of the area had the capacity for permited degree of tourism development and about 42 percent of the area had the conditional degree of tourism development conciderring ecologic prespectives. In the remaining 37 percent of the area tourism development was forbidden under any condition. In areas that have been allowed to develop tourism if desired, providedthe facilities and utilities and their potential to develop sustainable tourism could be promoted properly and economic equilibrium and balance different areas, especially in underdeveloped and rural use. The results of this study can be was exploited asan indicator for the development of appropriate landuses and optimize in the framework economic projects in the region.
    Keywords: Zoning, Landuse, MCE Model, ANP Model, Tourism, Oshnaviyeh City
  • Ahmad Pourahmad *, Hossein Hataminejad, Mahdi Modiri, Ashraf Azimzadeh Irani Pages 35-52
    Introduction Preservation and maintenance of historical urban fabrics or fabrics containing cultural heritage of cities is of special importance, because these fabrics, in addition to creating a sense of identity and stimulating national pride, improve the citizen’s quality of life. »Improvement«is one of the methods and, of course, the most appropriate one, of intervention in the historical fabrics of cities, because in this type of intervention, the principle is based on "loyalty to the past and the preservation of identity-stimulating effects".
    Improvement activities are aimed at using available potential and actual facilities, strengthening positive aspects and weakening negative ones. In each of the improvement measures, no significant intervention is performedin the physical aspect, and only by replacing the proper functioning of activity the erosion of this type of urban space is prevented, and by making changes in urban activities, favorable urban spaces is created. Since the observance of the "passive defense requirements" as well as the "sustainable urban development principles" is an essential requirement in selecting the appropriate pattern for the improvement of the old urban fabric, the study of the principles governing these two concepts indicates thatcontradictions exist between these principles. In the present study, we have mainly studied and examined these two important and influential concepts on the improvement patterns of historical urban fabric, and carried out a comparative study of the principles governing them. The purpose of this research is to outline the contradictions between the requirements of passive defense and the principles of sustainable urban development in the improvement pattern of historic urban fabric and to find a suitable solution in this regard.
    Materials & Methods The research method was applied in terms of the aim, and descriptive-exploratory in terms of conduct. The data gathering method was both documentary (secondary) and field surveys, and analyses were performed using the ArcGIS software and also by the Paired Comparison Analysis method. The historical fabric of the 12th district of Tehran, with an emphasis on the historical element of the museums, was the case study of this paper, which made it possible to achieve the results of the research. In order to prioritize some uses in positions where the studied historical element (museum) are located, from the point of view of passive defense as well as from sustainable urban development perspective, we can use the Paired Comparison Analysis method to achieve the most balanced result, So that the conflict between the two approaches is not significant. First of all, the importance of each single studied use is examined from either of the two perspectives through the spatial analysis ofthe position of that particular use relative to the location of the museums. Then, the view of passive defense concerning each use has been compared with that of sustainable urban development according to the relevant criteria, and scored on the basis of importance.
    Results & Discussion The results of the research show that in order to find the most suitable pattern of intervention - of improvement type - in the historical fabric, it is necessary that along with emphasis on the requirements of passive defense and principles of sustainable urban development, We must, in addition to prioritizing changes in uses, reduce the grounds for the creation of any kind of contradiction in approaches. Therefore, in the present paper, the uses and elements affecting theregion have been analyzed in relation to the studied fabric (museums). In the investigated pattern, actions and predictions to improve the physical and environment through the replacement of proper operation of activity will prevent the erosion of the historical urban fabric, and by creating changes in urban activities, favorable spaces for the protection of historical fabric will be created.
    Conclusion In spite of the proof of the conflict between "passive defense requirements" and "principles of sustainable urban development", the emphasis on both concepts in the improvement pattern of city’s historical fabric isinevitable.
    Therefore, by adopting an appropriate model for improvement and appropriate methods of intervention, it is possible to perform the important task of preserving the historical fabric by optimally changing some of the uses.
    Keywords: City's historical fabrics, Improvement pattern, Passive defense, Sustainable urban development, Paradox, District 12 of Tehran
  • Hamed Amini Amirkolaee *, Hamid Enayati, Maryam Veisi Pages 53-65
    The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is a statistical presentation of the earth surface using some points with predefined 3D coordinates. Extracting the DTM as an important product of photogrammetry and remote sensing that is the basis of many practical projects, has always been considered for experts. LiDAR is a powerful equipment that can provide 3D point cloud with high accuracy from the earth. Nowadays, advances in technology make the generating 3D point cloud from the digital aerial images by dense matching feasible. These point clouds represents an approximate Digital Surface Model (DSM) of the earth. The DSM contains both terrain points and off-terrain points, but the DTM contains only the terrain points. In other words, the DTM presents a bare earth without any natural and artificial objects. Generating the DTM using the DSM is a challenging topic in photogrammetry and remote sensing. In this paper an algorithm with two independent approaches is proposed. Before beginning the process, the irregular point clouds was gridded, interpolate and convert to the image by specifying a point interval.
    The first proposed approach was a progressive morphological filter that detect the off-terrain points from the DSM. This approachused the simple morphological filter in a specific procedure with four steps. In the first step, a minimal surface was generated by identifying the points which have minimum elevation in predefine scan windows. The structural element of the morphological filters should be determined. As it is a progressive filter, a vector that contains the structural elements sizes was determined in the second step. In the third step, a morphological opening was applied on the point cloud with a structural element accordance with the produced vector in step1. For each window size in the vector, an elevation threshold was calculated by multiplying the interval distance and supplied slope parameter. Then, the difference between initial surface and the result of applying the morphological opening was computed. The points with difference value more than the calculated elevation threshold was selected as off-terrain points.
    In the second approach an iterative procedure was designed which was based on morphological filters. The geodesic dilation was a combination of traditional morphological filter. Although the morphological filters operated based on the image and structural element, geodesic dilation operated with two images including the mask and the marker. In geodesic dilation of size one the marker image was dilated by an elementary isotropic structural element and the resulting image was forced to remain below the mask image. In other words, the mask image acts as a limitation for the dilated marker image. Image reconstructing using geodesic dilation on an image was done by performing some successive geodesic dilations on the image. The results of geodesic dilation was depending on the elevation value. If this value was low, only the building ridge line was extracted andoff-ground. Moreover, if the elevation value was high, some of the bare earth was cut as off-terrain, wrongly. Hence, an iterative procedure was proposed to make the extracting the most of the object possible. In this way, the probability of error was reduced. In each loop, the elevation value was increased and some objects was extracted using geodesic dilation. Among the extracted parcels in each loop, the parcels which have local range variation more than a threshold were selected and the others were removed. The local range variation for each point was computed by specifying a window and calculating the difference between maximum and minimum elevation value in that window. This procedure was repeated till analyzing all of the elevation values.
    Finally, the results of detecting the off terrain points using the both of approach were accumulated to acquire the final class of off-terrain points. Then this points were removed and the cubic interpolation was employed in order to retrieval the elevation of the losses points and generate the DTM.
    In order to analyze the performance of the proposed algorithm, 7 test area was used. The point cloud of area 1, 2 and 3 were produced using dense matching of digital aerial images (Ultracam) by National GeographyOrganization of Iran. The point spacing of these areas is about 0.5 meter. The point cloud of area 4, 5, 6 and 7 were captured using LiDAR by International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. The point spacing of these areas were 3, 1, 2.5 and 3 meter, respectively. The data set covered the most of the features such as steep slopes, mixture of vegetation and building, bridge underpass, road and building with various roof shape. Evaluating the performance of proposed algorithm represented the 4.85% error for extracting the off-terrain points and 0.68 meter error for generated DTM in all test areas, averagely. The evaluation results clarify the ability of proposed practical algorithm in generating the DTM using the DSM
    Keywords: Digital Terrain Model, Point Cloud, Morphology, Structural Element
  • Yaser Amini *, Abbas Alipour, Seyyed Mostafa Hashemi, Sajjad Bagheri Seyeedshokri Pages 67-80
    Introduction Snow cover represents the amount of stored and the water from melting snow play an important role in the formation of surface water and groundwater in country watersheds. Detection and determination of snow and ice different characteristics by using remote sensing data, which is widely used in hydrology, created new approaches in acquiring needed parameters in Hydrology.Results of research shows that the observations of the guesser have high potential for detection of snowcover and the use of its data is suggested for calculation of water of snow equivalent in the areas such as Kerman Province which faced with the limitation of ground stations.
    Materials & Methods Since this area is the ability to have snow in winter so the data about water equivalent to snow in this area is necessary for many applications such as hydrology, meteorology, climatology and also producing hydroelectric and flood estimation. In this study, using brightness temperature from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), on board the NOAA satellites and the artificial neural networks as well as multiple regression techniques, the snow water equivalent forthe catchment basins of Tehran in the winter during a 10-year period (2015-2006) has been calculated and verified. In total, data from 5 monitoring stations of snow for 104 days during the study period was used for retrieval and verification.
    Results & Discussion Based on the results, which we found, the best estimate is relate to the winter of the artificial neural networks to the regression method with RMSE=0/05, MSE=0/11, Bias= 0/0006 and r=0/14.The results indicate the superiority of the artificial neural networks to the regression method.
    Conclusion This results also show the observations of this sounding has the high potential for indicating the coverage of snow which are useful information and it is suggested to calculate snow water equivalent in the regions like kerman where has limited ground stations of snow measurement.
    Keywords: Snow water equivalent, Advanced microwave sounding, Artificial neural networks, Kerman
  • Yunes Khosravi *, Hassan Lashkari, Aliakbar Matkan, Hossein Asakareh Pages 81-98
    Introduction Survey of spatial relationships of environmental data take into accounts as one of themost important goals of spatial statistics for analyzing the spatial patterns and understanding the spatial dependencies. In this context, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) could well to provide methods for distinguishing betweenspatial randomandnon-random patterns. Using the ESDA for analyzing the spatial autocorrelation of climatic elements is necessary to distinguish the changes and spatial distribution of them. The present research has aimed at explaining the use ofESDA for explaining the spatial patterns ofwater vapor pressureas one of the most important climatic parameters. Water vapor pressure plays a crucial role in climate system as an important feedback variable associated with the earth’s energy balance and hydrologic cycle. This climatic parameter has an important rolein explaining the climate change or changes in climatic parameters, because of 1) It is the main sourceof rainfall in allweathersystems, 2) It suppliesthe latent heatin this process and controls the heat in thetroposphere, 3) It is the booster of the storm's speed and 4) plays a major role in the dynamics of atmospheric circulation. So, determination and interpretation of the likely reasons of Water vapor pressure changes and its variability are vitally important for human as well as other living-beings.
    Materials & Methods The study area, with about 360,200 km2 area, is located in the south and southwest of Iran and approximately between 25° 00'N and 34° 25'N latitudes and between 45° 38'E and 59° 17'E longitudes. Southern and southwestern parts of the study area are located beside of two massive sources of moisture, Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. The main mountain chain in the study area is Zagros that extends from the northwest to the southern part of study area. The Zagros mountain range is responsible for the major portion of rain-producing air masses that enter the region from the western and northwestern sides, with relatively high amounts of rainfall. In this study, water vapor pressure data in pixels (dimension of 9×9 km) in the time interval 1981-2010 were collected by the Iranian Meteorological data website (http://www.weather.ir).For Interpolation the water vapor pressure Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) were tested and so after the error validation, the optimum method (Ordinary kriging with Gaussian method) was chosen. As regards the aim of this study, analyzing the spatial variability of WV in regional and local scale, the most important geographic features such as elevation, longitude, latitude, slope and aspect were chosen. Topography maps of the study area collected by the Geological Survey of Iran (http://www.gsi.ir). By mosaicking, georeferencing and editing these maps in Arc GIS 10.2 software, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) by 10 Km cell size was derived and based on it, the geographic features are prepared.Moran's I,Anselin local Moran's I and LISAasESDA’sapproaches were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of water vapor pressure patterns based on climate parameters.
    Results & Discussion According to the cross validation, it was cleared thatthe optimum method for interpolation of water vapor pressureis Ordinary kriging with Gaussian method. The results of Moran’s Istatistic showed that the water vapor pressure hasspatial structure and distributed in cluster patternin the South and SouthWest of Iran. The monthly’s surveys showed thatthe spatial autocorrelation of water vapor pressure in warm months are higher than cold months and therefore have a greater tendency to cluster. The results alsoshowedthat the water vapor pressure tending to disperse and non-clusterinspace in the South and SouthWest of Iran. The bivariate Moran's Istatistic for relation of water vapor pressure and longitude showed the strong and positive spatial autocorrelation and also clustered pattern.
    Conclusion Survey the monthly spatial autocorrelation of water vapor pressure showed that the water vapor pressure in warm month more dealing with high spatial autocorrelation than cold months and more inclined to clustering. The existence of such situationin the most regions of the study area in the warm seasonreflects the Consistency and homogeneity in this season in relation to the other seasons. Maybe the main reason of this circumstances are the lack of non-diversification of input pressure systems in this season, climate uniformity and sustainability and effects of local systems. Over time, the water vapor pressure in the south and southwest of Iran has tended to be more dispersed and less clustering in space.The reason for this incident is not fully revealed but it may be attributed to topographic effects, changes in system positioning, land use changes, etc.Investigating the relationship between spatial distribution of water vapor pressure and geographic parameters showed that the relationship betweenwater vapor pressureand latitude,elevation and slope suggested adispersed and heterogeneousspatial distribution between them. The results of the bivariat erelationship betweenwater vapor pressureand aspect suggested a discontinuity and randomness relation.
    Keywords: Spatial autocorrelation, Moran's I, exploratory spatial data analysis, Water vapor pressure, Geographic features
  • Abolhasan Modarreszadeh Barzaki *, Rahim Sarvar Pages 99-110
    Implementation of an updated estates database is considered as an indelible and infrastructural entity for municipality revenues and a key factor in urban development assessment.
    Access to precise and updated estates data is a vital requirement of decision supporters and decision makers in urban planning. At recent decades, Information technologies (IT) progression is caused traditional mechanism of data storage substitute for computer spatial data systems. Nowadays, justly and precise calculation of urban tax is not possible except establishing a comprehensive database.
    At this research, the process and results of more than 6600 estates surveying is discussed in 2014 at Noosh Abad city (Isfahan province, Aran-va-Bidgol City, near Kashan) in the municipality’s project. In Operational phase, surveying and filling up the forms were performed. Then the software was designed and developed to data entry, data representation, tax formulating, reporting and billing. After data refinement and clean up the drawing errors using topology, the GIS software was implemented.
    Statistical analysis of the database about estates count, area and total debt in each area reveal a linear regression 0.9 among mentioned indices. The new constructed town (Region1), Because of fewer and larger parcels is irregular in these above-mentioned parameters. Additionally, the area debt map which shows total calculated tax in each region was generated at this project. As a result of this project bills were exported cost up to 7459 million IRR. .Compared with the annual budget, this payment can take into account as remarkable and sustainable revenue to compensate municipality’s budget deficit.
    Keywords: Estate surveying, GIS, Urban Management, Sustainable Revenue
  • Amir Mahmoudzadeh, Iran Ghaazi, Maryam Askari * Pages 111-126
    Since the disaster-prone country among 10 countries in the world And identified a subset of 40 of the 30 series of natural disasters that threaten And about 6 percent of all natural disasters happened in the world it occurs and the other side of the Alps-Himalaya earthquake belt of the city's 97 percent of it has been influenced directly or indirectly, According to the UN Office of Management and in 2002, in the rest of the world ranks first in the number of earthquakes with an intensity of 5.5 on the Richter scale in and one of the highest ratings in the areas affected by the earthquake and losses allocated to the accident .ictims of natural disasters in developing countries is .
    Natural disasters, particularly earthquakes due to its non Mtrqh need to take quick and correct decisions and the implementation of operational knowledge as disaster management has created.Crisis management involves continuous and dynamic actions based on classical process management, is based.The most important tasks of crisis management, crisis mitigation, preparedness and recovery to pre-crisis. The main process can be divided into three stages: a crisis caused by the earthquake before the earthquake, (b) and (c) when an earthquake split after the earthquake.
    Ilam area of 9.7 square kilometers, the northen most city in the province with a population of 172,213 thousand people. Ilam Formation in the Zagros Folded lead off the main fault at depth of the bands with high relative risk is In 1351, an earthquake with a magnitude of about six hundred houses of the inhabitants of Elam and destroy their In 1354, four earthquakes in 1356 and 1357 and in 1368, two earthquakes with intensity less than five on the Richter scale occurred in Ilam . During the recent earthquakes in the magnitude of 5.7 on the Richter scale occurred in the city of Ilam that these losses are not significant earthquakes .Area within the old city of Ilam, is 374 acres of its land area, 19% of the total surface area can be a city's old quarters and the tissue was according to the management of the main causes of aging and the need for research in this context, in the ilam city are as follows: There is a range of old historic castle governor in 1326 AH in the reign of Mohammad Ali Shah Qajar Poshtkoh Vhkmrany local governor, was built on the orders of Reza Khan AbvqdarhThere is a large population in this area (50 thousand people)
    the existence of ilam on the Zagros range Zyrtng faults, guar in this areaild and moderate earthquakes in Ilam in recent years, but fortunately no loss of life among them;It is estimated that about 95 percent of the victims of natural disasters in developing countries.5.7-magnitude quake on 4-magnitude earthquake on 8/10/92 and 9/28/92, as well as several others that have occurred during the importance of the city of Ilam, particularly in terms of eroded tissue reveals vulnerability to earthquake most housing units in this area has more than 15 years and less durable materials are built.The aim of this study was to evaluate the vulnerability of old texture of ilam against earthquakes managing and implementing programs to reduce the risk of this range.
    Keywords: Crisis management, Vulnerability, Wornout- texture, earthquake, Ilam city center, AHP, GIS
  • Ali Ahmadabadi *, Amanollah Fathnia, Saeed Rajaei Pages 127-137
    Cover vegetation is much related to climatic conditions. Recognition of seasonal variability the vegetation growth is important to determine the ecosystems response to climate change in seasonal and interannual scales. In this research, to produce the predicted model, we used from climatic factors (precipitation, temperature and relative humidity (maximum, mean, minimum) during 20 years (1987-2006), and these data (141 weather stations) interpolated. So, calculate monthly the maximum value composite of NDVI from NOAA-AVHRR images that same during. Then, have computed Multivariate Least Squares regression from climatic factors (independent variables) and NDVI (dependent variable). The result show, most correlation between climatic factors and NDVI is about of 0.82 and occurring in May, that is highest growth. The lowest correlation is occurring in winters, because is not growing. The annual correlation in calculated model is more than 0.93 with inter the accidental errors. Totally, the calculated NDVI for May and Jun in during 2004-2005 years is close to predicted model, but in winters are distances from together. For the severe drought are lower predicted in 2006 at spring (Jun). In winter the role of temperature is more than precipitation and relative humidity in predicted model, but in earlier of May the role of precipitation and relative humidity is positive and temperature is negative, because is increasing temperature and decrease of precipitation and relative humidity. In autumn, is increasing the role of temperature and decrease the role of precipitation in predicted model.
    Keywords: NDVI, Forest, Climatic factors, Iran
  • Saeed Amanpour, Mohammad Javad Kamelifar *, Hojjat Bahmani Pages 139-150
    Introduction One of the main challenges in the urban sprawl process of developing countries is their rapid growth that if this growth be a sporadic growth without planning would have numerous problems to urban planning and management.This unplanned growth, in addition to the destruction of agricultural land leads to urban tensions such as rising land prices, rising prices for urban services, and so on.In general, economic growth over the past decades in the country and the need to coordinate with global developments have caused most of Iran's major cities, such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz to be subject to rapid changes from the point of view of land use.Ahvaz is also one of these cities that has undergone fundamental changes due to its particular situation in the last few years.
    Material and methods The present research is applied study with descriptive-analytical methodology.Data collection in the descriptive section was carried out through the study of library documents and in the analytical part of the research, through the extraction of TM images (Thematic Mapper) from the years 1985 and 2013 for Ahvaz city.In order to achieve the goal of research and analysis of the images, the ENVI and GIS software were used.In this regard, after the preprocessing, the atmospheric correction and the selection of the most suitable bands for classifying and applying the maximum likelihood similarity (MLL) method, the controlled classification was performed in the ENVI software that the overall accuracy of the extracted map with the maximum probability algorithm in this research was calculated for 2013 (98.11%) and 1989 (94.23%).Then, land use changes in revealed in GIS software, and results were verified by checking severalexamples on the field.
    Result and discussion The findings of the research show that during the 24 years of study, the percentage of wasteland, gardens and green spaces has been reduced for the built land and roads.Reducing the ratio of gardens and agricultural lands in this area can be a major problem in land use changes in the present period.Also, by investigating the green spaces conditions inside the city, it was found that Ahvaz city, despite the improvement of greenery conditions in recent years, has been suffering from the shortage of this property inside the city due to the significant increase in population.The observed changes in the field of urban land development during the mentioned years showed that the areas with the most development in terms of land construction are among the most populous and at the same time the most migratory areas in Ahvaz which can be said that urban sprawl has grown, especially in the southern parts of the city.
    Result The results of this study indicate that the most land development in Ahvaz is located in the southern and eastern parts of the city.Although lands for future urban development is an opportunity for any city, but widespread and unplanned changes that mention the concept of scattered growth in the city of Ahvaz will make the providing of facilities, infrastructure and services difficult.
    Keywords: Land use, Satellite imagery, Envi software, Ahvaz
  • Sonia Mehry, Khadije Haji, Voria Alizadeh, Raoof Mostafazadeh * Pages 151-162
    Drought as a natural deficiency of precipitation over a period of time is a serious hazard to environment and the life of living species. Spatio-temporal variability of wet and dry spells will affect availability of water resources and management plans. Therefore, the lack of opportunity and sufficient resources causes serious damage in the time of drought occurrence. Drought disaster management includes a set of reactive responses which can reduce or mitigate the consequences of drought events. Thus, the analysis of drought indices is necessary to predict and assess the spatial and temporal variability of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index, as a well-known meteorological drought indicator, is the capability of estimating various drought characteristics and can be used to analyze past droughts and predicting future droughts return periods. The Standardized Precipitation Index was selected due to its simplicity, ability of calculating the severity and duration of drought events of drought and mildew.
    Materials & Methods In this study, drought condition and its spatio-temporal variations was investigated through Kurdistan province, Iran, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated by DrinC software in different 3, 6 and 12 months’ time scales. Toward this attempt, the monthly precipitation data of nine synoptic stations of Kurdistan province were obtained at 9 synoptic stations including Sanandaj, Saghez, Zafarabad, Marivan, Baneh, Ghorveh, Bijar, Kamyaran and Dehgolan. The maximum available recorded were used for analysis. The maximum and minimum values of the SPI index in the 3, 6, and 12-month scales were defined in the study period. Also, spatial distribution of drought condition based on the 12-month index was presented alternately in some years of the study period. Then, the most important characteristics of wet and dry periods, including the total number of wet and dry months, were determined in different drought classes. In this research, the inverse distance weighting method was used to determine the spatial pattern of drought characteristics in the study area and zoning maps.
    Results & Discussion The results of the study indicated that the severe drought in the three time scales has been occurred across Dehgolan station in 2005-2006 year. The longest period of drought occurrence with high severity level with 17-month length has been related to Qorveh station. The results of the study approved the variability of drought occurrences across the study area in different time scales.
    Finally, the zoning maps of the study area indicate that in the North and West regions, there is a higher wet spell occurrence. While the Eastern parts of the province experienced more severe droughts. Accordingly, Dehgolan station has the first priority in terms of drought severity between stations and the lowest drought severity was defined in the Zafarabad (Dyvandreh) station.
    Conclusion Also, it can be concluded that, the Dehgolan and Divandare stations assigned as highest and lowest priority in term of drought hazard occurrence in considered temporal time scales. As a result, drought crisis management and prediction can be one of the effective measures in reducing the damages of this climatic phenomenon, especially in drought prone areas. It is suggested that other drought indicators used to identifying drought characteristics and the results compared to obtain a comprehensive understanding on the drought severity and extent over the syudy area.
    Keywords: Drought periods, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Kurdistan, Time scales, DrinC Software
  • Ahmadreza Ghasemi *, Morteza Moogooei Pages 163-173
    Introduction Climate change will affect the availability of water resources and the sustainability of their management. The impact of climate change on water resources has caused concerns and serious challenges around the world. Global climate change has decreased water resources in many regions and especially in arid and semi arid regions such as Iran. Water shortages decrease both agricultural production and food security and can also limit the economic development and ecosystem health. Also, there is growing evidence that climate change is changing the hydrological cycle.
    Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari is the main supplier of water for Khuzestan and Isfahan provinces and inter-basin water transfer talk has always been for these two provinces. However, there is not a comprehensive study on river discharge changes in this province and we cannot judge about the future water transfer. In the Iran, there have been several studies about the seasonal changes in precipitation and other climatic variables but assessments of river ows are limited. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to document statistically significant trends in seasonal and annual changes in stream flow in the main rivers in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari.
    Materials&Methods The total monthly and seasonal streamflow time series for the period 1358–1389 (32 years) corresponding to 12 hydrometric stations across the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province are obtained from the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari Regional Water Organization. This study is done with latest data (1389) published by Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari Regional Water Organization. At the first, the linear trends are determined on annual and seasonal timescales, using Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric trend tests.The non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests are based on the calculation of Kendall's tau between two samples, which is itself based on the ranks with the samples. This test have been widely used to detect trends in series of environmental data, climate data or hydrological data, because it is less sensitive to the non-normality of the distribution and less affected by extreme values or outliers in the series.Also, the magnitude of trend, if a linear trend is present in a timeseries, is estimated by using the non-parametric Sen’ estimator test. The Sen’ estimator method is commonly used for calculating the trend slope. Thus, in this study this method is also used to calculate the trend slopes to obtain the extent of trend changes.
    A number of methods can be applied to determine change points of a time series. In this study, the change point in the stream flow time series in 12 studied hydrometric stations is identified by Pettitt’s test. This test is a non-parametric approach for detecting change points based on the mann-whitney test. It has been demonstrated that the Pettitt’s test is a useful technique for examining the occurrence of abrupt changes in climatic records.
    Results&Discussion The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests (MK) for all studied rivers through the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province showed a decreasing trend in the stream flow in all 12 hydrometric stations for both seasonal and annual scale. The amount of reduction based on the Sen’ estimator method, varies at different stations and seasons, from 0.8 m3/s to 17 m3/s in Gordbysheh and Beheshtabad, respectively. On seasonal scale the results indicate a significant reduction in stream flow of all stations in summer, while in winter, except at two stations (Deh- Cheshmh and Soulegan) significant trend was not observed. The results of Pettitt's test also suggesting, the abrupt downward change (statistically significant) in most studied stations occurs in the early 1370s. On the other words, in two recent decades a significant decreasing trend in stream flow is occurred in Karon and Zayandeh Rood Basin. The results also showed that in addition to the mean of stream flow, the extreme values of stream flow in these revers also experience a very sharp decries during the studied period.
    Conclusion Decreasing trend in all studied hydrometric stations through the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province clearly shows the reduction of water resources in this province and also the reduction of the role of the province in water supply to the country. The abrupt downward change that occurs in the early 1370s in most studied hydrometric stations is also show that the reduction of water production in the province have started from about 20 years ago. Therefore, for any water transfer plan from this province to other regions the practical principles should be considered. Another important issue that must be considers is that the water resources in Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province is sharply decreasing and the water plants should not be based on the old information.
    Keywords: Streamflow changes, Trend, Mann-Kendall tests, Pettitt's test, Sen estimator, Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari
  • Ali Mohammadpour *, Amir Hamzeh Zarghami, Saeed Zarghami Pages 175-190
    The natural situation, way of dispersion of uses, position of placement of infrastructures and urban installations and equipment are assumed as safety considerations in analysis of topography and security planning and passive defensive of city. Therefore, it is necessary to employ defensive and security approaches in designs of urban development where this indicates both a link between performances of activities on the one hand and defensive arrangements on the other hand. Fortification of urban defensive installations, anticipation of escape exits from risk, and improvement of the status of services which require during period of defense will be assumed as the foremost objectives in urban survey respectively as the probability in threatening number of population and wealth sources in any city. As the capital of Kurdistan province and placement of important administrative centers and the vital and significant installations, Sanandaj city is crucially important. In addition, due to position of this city close to Iraq and the same language spoken in Iraqi climate of Kurdistan and recently presence of Israeli agents in this region, Sanandaj may be subject to political and military threats. With respect to the experiences of recent wars, especially USA attack to Iraq, the critical and vital points of this city have been recognized as centroids of city if damaged they can lead to surrendering of city. Therefore it is necessary for paying attention to topology (positioning) of urban installations equipment with respect to passive defense approach to reduce such damages.
    Materials and Methods
    The methodology of this study is of descriptive- analytical type. In this regard, the authors have determined vulnerable points of this city in order to recognize the vulnerable elements and extents of this city by passive defense approach. Accordingly, a list of vulnerable elements of city has been prepared using comments from 14 experts and these elements have been scored by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Initially data have been prepared as vulnerability maps based on any element in Arc Map software environment. Then weighting of elements have been done by AHP technique and binary comparison of them Expert Choice environment to solve AHP model. The order preference of parameters will be determined to each other. The standardization (fuzzification) method has been adapted to determine range of city vulnerability based on scores. With respect to the conducted analyses on each of urban elements, the rate of vulnerability of Sanandaj city has been specified at five vulnerability levels i.e. very high, high, medium, low, and very low. Then SWOT model was employed for identifying and reducing vulnerability elements in Sanandaj city and Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) model for order-preference of strategies.
    Results and Discussion
    The highest score belongs to vital arteries (0.623). This criterion is divided into four following sub criteria in which reservoir and water treatment unit possess the highest scores. This is because of placement of this important infrastructure at the entry of this city and beside other critical uses. Afterwards, crisis management centers are placed at second rank of vulnerability with score of 0.300. One of the reasons for concentration of offices at the central point of city and inappropriate access of medical centers to communication network is related to pending position of city hill to hospital. The crisis management centers includes two sub criteria of important offices and hospital and medical centers among of which hospital and medical centers have been more vulnerable. After them, urban equipment and military and disciplinary centers, and supporting centers have higher vulnerability respectively. In terms of vulnerability rate, some of layers are overlapped to specify the most vulnerable parts in this city. The municipal region no five and lesser part of regions nos. three and four are vulnerable. Due to placement of some centers with high- vulnerability in these zones, it is necessary to pay attention to passive defense principles out of which topology is one of subsystems of them.
    Conclusion
    With respect to implementation of scores from AHP model on maps of the studied zone, Sanandaj municipal region no 5 has been known as the most vulnerable part of Sanandaj city because of placement in vital arteries and other important urban centers. Topology of vital and significant installations has not favorably followed passive defense approach. Thus with respect to the derived information from the existing documents and evidences, the conducted field visits and analyses on the given centers represented that the principles of passive defense have not been observed in these installations and equipment. These centers have been located beside important and critical equipment in centralized form and they have not been dispersed. This might increase the risk of air and land attacks for these installations. Similarly, duly efforts have not been made for camouflage and hiding these centers. What is clear so far is that the subject of passive defense has not been yet addressed in urban designs prepared for the positions in Sanandaj city.
    Keywords: Vulnerable zones, elements, Passive defense, AHP, City of Sanandaj, Five Municipalities
  • سید یاسر حکیم دوست*, علی محمد پورزیدی, محمد صالح گرامی Pages 191-203
    بارش رگباری از پدیده های بحران سازی است که وقوع ناگهانی و پر شدت آن موجب بروز خسارات فراوان بر انسان و محیط پیرامونی آن می شود. شناخت و آگاهی از بارش رگباری و چگونگی وقوع، شدت و تداوم آن در فصول مختلف کمک بسزایی در مقابله ی صحیح با آن می نماید. با توجه به رفتار متفاوت بارش و تغییرات سریع در فواصل مکانی کم و در طولانی مدت، ارائه مدل های مناسب ، متناسب با اقلیم آن منطقه، جهت پیش بینی احتمالی آن ضروری است. دراینپژوهشبه تحلیل مکانی بارش رگباری استان مازندران پرداخته شد و براساس داده های استخراج شده گراف باران سنجی در 12 ایستگاه سینوپتیک استان مازندران، برابر میزان بارش بالای 10 میلی متر در دوره 5ساله، از سال 2006 تا2010 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای پهنه بندی محدوده موردمطالعه از روش IDWبا سه توان 1،2،3 و روش کریجینگ با مدل های کروی، دایره ای، نمایی و گوسین استفاده شده است. ارزیابی و تعیین بهترین مدل و صحت سنجی نقشه های تولیدشده انجام شد. همچنین جهت مقایسه آماری مدل ها از مقدار ریشه مربع خطاها RMS ،MAE،RMSE و ضریب همبستگی آن ها استفاده شده، که بهترین مدل برای پهنه بندی مدل IDW با دو توان 1،3و کریجینگ معمولی دایره ای بود. استخراج نقشه بهینه به وسیله رگرسیون چند متغیره بر اساس مدل روش همزمان و روش پس رونده انجام شد و شش متغیر که در ایجاد بارش بیشترین تاثیر را دارند، شامل عرض و طول جغرافیای، تعداد روز بارش، ارتفاع، رطوبت نسبی و دمای نقطه شبنم مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می دهد، میزان همبستگی این شش متغیر در فصل بهار97/0، تابستان99/0، پاییز98/0، زمستان99/0ودربارش سالانه99/0 است که نشان دهنده رابطه قوی بین این شش متغیر در بارش رگباری استان مازندران می باشد.
    Keywords: رگبار, زمین, آمار, کریجینگ, رگرسیون چند متغیره, مازندران
  • Nafiseh Rezapour Andabili *, Marzieh Alikhah Asl Pages 205-216
    Introduction In order to achieve sustainable development for a variety of uses, ecological vision can be considered as a solution to environmental problems. With the efficient use of land for a variety of applications it will be possible to prevent the biological resources destruction. Uses’ planning with ecological view is a logical solution to eliminate poverty chain in the society, environmental crisis and providing conditions for sustainable development. Evaluation of ecological capability is a process which attempts to establish an appropriate and balanced development between human and nature through adjusting their relationship. Due to the fact that natural environment has limited ecological capabilities for human use, ecological capability through preventing current crisis provides appropriate background for environmental planning.
    Materials and Methods The environmental capability will help lead to solving conflicts. Considering that in order to assess the suitability of a number of factors must simultaneously be considered the use of GIS with great potential in the field of producing, editing, analyzing and modeling the data as an effective tool for better planning and in line with the study area is considered. In the current study, ecological capability includes the following three basic parts. After performing these steps ecological potential of the study erea was determined. First: identify ecological resources. second: analyze and summarize data. Third: evaluation and classification of the land. Identification of ecological resources is as a first step to assess and plan the land because a large number of resources have been identified in the analysis of a large number of information, data will be broken into smaller categories After analyzing the identified resources, land ready to be evaluated. Land evaluation is to compare or measure of ecological environment in comparison to the benchmark. Aq Dagh protected zone with area of 93889 hectares has been located at south part of Ardebil province, South of Khalkhal town and North part of Zanjan province. The aim of current study was to investigate ecological capability of Aq Dagh protected area for forestry use and to evaluate correspondence level of current forestry use with ecological capability of the area. Information layers used in this study involved: soil, climate, and plant cover, land shape, hydrology and land use.
    Results and Discution Mapping unit for environmental assessment and planning called environmental unit and can be considered as an ecosystem contract which is aligned micro-ecosystem. Map of the earth unit was earned by the combination of height map and slop map and direction map. The number of landform units is 874 units. However, the number of units after merging units with an area of 5 ha have been separated into five relatively homogeneous class. The investigation showed that forestry capability of the land is totally 11293/5 hectares. Results indicated absence of classes 1, 2, 7 of forestry due to biophysical condition, heights and area's climate in a way that only classes 3, 4, 5, 6 of forestry were present at the studied area. Use patterns of the identified forestry were in accordance with evaluation of their power in the area and it has forestry use under current conditions. This is while class 6 of forestry enjoys pasture use currently and from four forestry classes in the area the share of class 6 is more than others.
    Conclusion In Aq Dagh protected area where height is less than 1000 m, the soil fertility is not great. Considering all circumstances this area was on the third floor forest user. Areas that their altitude is less than 1800 m and their slop is less than 55% were on the fourth floor. Areas that their altitude is between 1800-2600 and their slop is less than 65% were on the fifth floor. And areas that their altitude is less than 2600 m and their slop is less than 75% and their drainage is poor were on the sixth floor. In assessing the ecological and compliance with current account showed that a total of 3917 hectares (5/35%) of the study area has the possibility of becoming a forest,comply with current user and only mismatch is on the 6th floor area of forest ecological potential Which includes 7143 hectares (5/64%) and is now a pasture. Findings of current study indicated that the area has much limitation for industrial-forestry growth. Given that one-dimentional studies will not be effective, land use planning should be done in forest lands.
    Keywords: Aq Dagh protected area, Evaluation of ecological capability, Zonation, GIS
  • Sedighe Kianisalmi *, Seyyed Hojjat Musavi, Parisah Yeganeh Dastgerdi Pages 217-228
    Introduction One-sided, unbalanced and unplanned development of cities, population and activity in the area, has many of the country's capacity left useless and has a lot of problems at different levels imposed planners (ahmadi et.al,1389: 94). In order to achieve sustainable development, describing and assessment of the state of the environment and resources, is necessary before any planning (movahhed, 1385: 11) Tourism, especially ecotourism is also no exception. Ecological potential assessment of tourism areas to use have been identified as a tool to achieve sustainable development (jowzi et al,1388:71). In order to achieve sustainable development, land planning is essential that the infrastructure of this planning is environmental assessment. Ecological potential assessment, measurement and potential of land with clear and pre-planned criteria. In this regard, from the 1960s, the geographic information system is established a tangible progress in the spatial planning of land use to accelerate the development of various methods for determination of land ability for different uses. As far as, now, using methods to assessment and the appropriateness of area in GIS now, is allocated a central position to itself, in the management of resources and natural area (jafari et al, 1390: 35).
    In this study is tried to define ecotourism potential using assessment of Environmental Ecological potential in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province to provide a dynamic setting for the development of the region. Therefore because of an abundance of natural attractions such as wetlands, lakes, waterfalls, springs, rivers, mountains and peaks, caves, plains and forests, as well as historical- cultural attractions, such as bridges, villages and castles, there is a great potential to attract many visitors. In this study is attempted with the using of GIS and ecological potential assessment model for establishment of tourism in the region, the potential can be investigated. The necessity and importance of this research is the fact that despite the unique characteristics of the province, especially in terms of nature, which can be play a more active role in the economic, social and cultural area, unfortunately these diverse and valuable attractions, less attention has been paid to this attractions so with a good planning and suitable using of available resources, the region can be developed sustainably.
    Meterial & Methods In Makhdoom systemic approach, ecological tourism model is provided for intensive and extensive outing (firoozi et al, 1392: 159). At this stage, by using collected data in the phases of analysis and conclusions in the environmental units with ecological models built for the user, the most appropriate activities is selected. Based on the results of investigations in Iran and the countries that are ecologically similar to Iran A set of ecological models have been produced in Iran which can be compared and measured ecological information about the model and determine the type of actions should be taken. The model used to determine the usages of the ecological models of agriculture - pasture, forestry, rural-, urban-industrial development, ecotourism, intensive tourism and aquaculture (Makhdoom, 1385: 185-212). This study seeks to find areas suitable for ecotourism (suitable Class A, suitable Class B and inappropriate). Therefore, suitable areas for loading the proposed activities appropriate to the potential of the region's stability have been identified taking into account variables such as slope, rock and soil, aspect, water, plants, climate and weather also preparation of needed maps.
    Result &Discussion In order to determine the ecological potential for ecotourism development in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, according to the preference of parameters in terms of importance in Makhdoom model (makhdoom, 1380: 203) first, slope map was developed in 9 classes using digital elevation model map and using the capabilities of ArcGIS. In the next stage, soil and rock condition was evaluated and the map was prepared. After determining the soil groups in the province, suitable areas for ecotourism class A, with suitable soil which is placed in Inceptisoils category, was separated. Climate is another factor considered in the assessment of ecological potential. In this context, the average temperature in warm period in the province is calculated. Since proper temperature during warm period for extensive recreation class A is 21-25 degrees Celsius, this feature was introduced in the attribute table. The next parameter is the number of sunny days. For extensive recreation class A for spring and summer seasons, the number of sunny days have to be more than 15 days per month. The last parameter is water. For extensive recreation class A, water level must be 5-12 liters per person. Citing the fact that the province, in terms of water resources is rich and has good precipitation, water levels parameter in the province was considered desirable.
    In the last stage, all obtained maps, are mutually overlaid and finally, a map is obtained which all the necessary conditions for an extensive recreation class A are introduced in, and shows all the suitable areas for extensive tourism.
    Conclusion After overlaying Maps and finishing ecological potential assessment process, it was found that a rather wide region of the province is suitable for developing ecotourism. According to calculations carried out, about 32.1961 square kilometers of the province is found suitable for extensive recreation (class A), the city LORDEGAN has the largest share of the relevant regions and the city BOROUJEN has the lowest share, respectively.
    Keywords: potential assessment, Ecotourism, Geographical Information System, Makhdoum model, Chaharmahal, Bakhtiari