نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 4 (زمستان 1389)

Several financial crises over the past three decades, especially the financial crisis of 2007, have caused revision in the literature of liberalization and deregulation of financial markets. In the Present Study, by surveying the theory of classical dichotomy and its critiques, the notion of separation between financial and real markets has been introduced. The existence and expansion of this separation will lead to financial crises.This separation which results in divergence between nominal and real values, occurs when the performance of financial market is not based on that of the real sector. The expansion of this separation and detachment of nominal values of financial assets from their return stream in the real sector generate shortly, motivate easily profitable opportunities which intensify speculative motives in financial markets. In this situation, a large amount of money will be transfered from the real sector of economy to the financial markets, and as a result, asset price bubbles are created. With inflating price bubbles, the financial crises are more likely to happen due to the burst of bubbles and the fall of asset prices.
In order to identify this separation, the price-earning ratio index has been used. The results indicate that the separation index is increasing during the preceding periods of financial crises. Considering the factors which cause and expand the separation between financial and real sectors of economy, it is essential to reestablish regulations and mechanisms of financial markets in a way that reduces this separation and hence reduces financial crises.

Investment is one of the most important factors of economic development. Monetary, financial, political and structural variables influence saving and investment. Financial markets have a determinant role in achieving higher investment level, economic growth rate and development. The present has examined the effect of change in banking deposit's profit as one of the financial market main variable on macroeconomic variables such as investment, GDP and employment. In addition, by looking into the effect of banking deposit profit rate on choosing between different properties, an inflation function was evaluated. The finding of the study suggested that, the relationship between deposit's profit rate & investment & employment & GDP is direct. However with inflation such relationship turned out to be indirect.

Investment has an important role in the economic growth and development of a country. Studies and experiments on factors affecting private investment would result in more efficient policies of the private sector growth. According to the new institutional economics, institutional structure greately affects the overall economic performance such as investment. Since no national business environment index exists, in Iran studies on investment behavior suffer from lack of this important measure. Therefore, in order to find an appropriate index of the business environment in Iran, an attempt has been made to establish an national business environment index. It should be born in mind that deficiencos and lack of congruence of the international indices with the national ones is also an issue. comparison of international indices was performed. Estimation of investment function implies that improvemet in business environment corresponds with the increase of private investment in Iran.

Scarcity of economic resources causes defining priority of their allocation to activities. Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Manufacturing (NA-Manufacturing) as two parts of production sector compete for absorbing those scarce resources. Hence, the question is: which part is preferred in this allocation, Agriculture or NA- Manufacturing?
In this paper with coordinating ISIC and HS codes, Input-output indices and comparative advantage indices have been used simultaneously for the first time. Factor analysis and numerical taxonomic analysis methods have also been incorporated to answer the question. The results indicate that Agriculture is preferred to NA-Manufacturing in Iran’s economy.

The purpose of implementing the present research is estimating the threshold rate of inflation and its relation with economic growth in a selection of OPEC countries. Six countries of OPEC are studied for the period of 1970-2005. The method selected for the data analysis is the pooled data method. An issue addressed here is the inflation influence on economic growth and the probable symmetric effect in all its levels. Other issue that is dealt with implicitly is whether there is any significant difference among the countries under investigation. In this respect the impact of Estimation of economic growth model using generalized least squares (GLS) method and fixed effects approach indicats that inflation rate under 15% doesn’t have significant effect on the growth rate in the countries under consideration. However, inflation above this threshold level (inflation above 15%) has negative and significant effect on the economic growth. The results related to the second issue indicate that there isn’t any significant difference in the relationship between inflation and economic growth among those countries.

The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on GDP of Iran by using seasonal time series data over the period of 1988-2008. In the present study, the real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated incorporating the GARCH model. The Johansen’s co- integration test indicates that there is a long – term relationship among the variables of the model. The main findings of the model show that the exchange rate volatility and real exchange rate have negative and significant effects on GDP and terms of trade and real money liquidity have positive and significant effect on Iranian GDP.
The results of model robustness indicate that in all alternative models which have been estimated, both exchange rate volatility and cross effect of openness and volatility have negative and significant effects on GDP.

Iran is one of the most concentrated areas of Afghan migrants and refugees. Most Afghans live outside camps dispersed throughout the country mixed with Iranian households. The majority of Afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. They expect lower wages than their Iranian counterparts and are ready to work in troublous conditions. Therefore, they can compete with Iranian unskilled workers. This study makes an attempt to investigate the impacts of Afghan immigrants on the unemployment rate in the economy of Iran, through time series data analysis and estimating regression equations using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results indicate that during the period under study (1976-2006), Afghan immigrants led to and increase in the unemployment rate in the economy of Iran. In fact, Iranian workers have been replaced by Afghan workers.

In this paper, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model have been designed to investigate Fiscal Dominance' effect on social welfare. The designed model has solved by calibration method. Results shows that the degree of fiscal dominance in Iran economy is about 92 percent and decreasing of Fiscal Dominance would lead to decreasing of output loss and increasing of social welfare. However, these results do not mean that the zero degree of fiscal dominance would maximize the social welfare in Iran. Results indicate that increasing of independence of monetary policy to upper than .5 (50 percents) does not any significant positive effect on social welfare.