نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال ششم شماره 2 (پیاپی 12، پاییز و زمستان 1396)

In this Paper, the Effect of Climate Change on Flood Emergency management was investigated in Tajan plain area. First the detection of climate change event was evaluated by using Non-parametric tests and The large-scale variations of atmospheric general circulation models with HadCM3 climate model under the A2 scenario were received in the four periods 2001-1971, 2040-2011, 2070-2041 and 2100-2071.For downscaling of the atmospheric general circulation models data at the regional level that it was used of statistical downscaling models SDSM5.5.1, artificial neural network and proportional methods. Based on the results of the statistical trend tests,it had been observed there are significant trend in the meteorological data changes of area and occurred phenomenon of ​​climate change in the area. The overall results of SDSM model and proportional method indicate that the decrease in rainfall and increase in the temperature are in future periods. The results of artificial neural network model were not satisfactory, because of the above error to simulate the temperature at an observation period. Also, the predicted temperature and precipitation data had high and significant correlation respectively with historical data at 95 percent confidence level. Finally, we can conclude that the increase in temperature and precipitation at some Seasons of year in future time periods Due to snow melting due to temperature increase at the end of summer and beginning of autumn and precipitation increase at winter and autumn Seasons The value of probability flooding occur at this seasons of the year is on the rise.

Given to turning Zayanderood River from a permanent to a seasonal river, reducing water share of farmers from 40 percent to 7 percent and delay in autumn and spring planting has faced farmers and ranchers of Varzaneh city with a great challenges. Such challenge resulted in migration of many residents, the increase in false jobs and the emergence of social delinquency. Thus providing solutions for the management of this crisis, it is essential to reduce damages. For this, the present study assess alternative livelihood as a solution to increase potential of community's ability fragile. Research is descriptive-survey in terms of purpose questionnaire method consisting of 4 standards and 11 variables with a sample size of 374. Sampling was conducted in simple random manner and the reliability was 0.719 based on Cronbach's alpha. Inferential analysis of questionnaires using single t test was performed in SPSS software. The results showed that the optimal participation of city residents Varzaneh (3.31), familiarity with standard of living rotation was low (2.45) and tend to choose alternative jobs (3.12) was high mostly due to rivers dryness and low efficiency of agricultural production and livestock. The results showed that the craft of carpet weaving among the residents is much more favorable to farming, animal husbandry, tourism and table weaving.

Continuous supply of potable water after earthquake has always been one of the most important concerns of every nation and society. Water supply system is encountered with a wide range of hazards and risks that makes this system one of the most vulnerable lifelines. The high seismic potential of different areas in Iran, and also catastrophic consequences of the earthquake shows the urgent need to carry out researches in this field. This study has been done in order to assess different failure scenarios of water supply system, considering the whole water supply chain (including raw water, water treatment plant and distribution network).
In this research, the risk of population being without water after occurrence of earthquake scenarios in a Metropolitan area around a water treatment plant is analyzed using Fault Tree Analysis method. Three different risk reduction strategies are suggested in order to reduce the risk. Finally, the results are compared with each other and the best strategy is selected.

Each year natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, storms and droughts will affect different parts of the world and lack of preparation and improper copping with them, creating Heavy damage to people and their property that is often irreparable. Iran is one of the most hazardous countries in the world. Therefore, humanitarian supply chain management in the country is important before, during and after the disaster. After the disaster occurrence, relief logistics operations are the most important step that for save lives must be carried out with maximum efficiency. Thus by knowing the needs of the people in each days of disaster life cycle, could be a major step in the implementation of effective and efficient humanitarian supply chain performance. These researches in term of purpose is applied and in term of data collection method is description-survey, and paid to Identifying and providing a classification of the needs of victims and by using fuzzy DEMATEL and ANP, to determine severity of the relationship between the identified needs and priorities of these needs on different days of the disaster life cycle due to an accident in the warm and cold seasons. In summary, the results showed that food items, biological items and medical items as the three needs are important in everyday of disaster life cycle. And also items of drinking water, tents, food package and conserves are very important sub-criteria in each day.

Urban disaster management authorities should be aware of the factors affecting household risk management. This knowledge allows them to expect higher participation and higher percentage of implementation of their programs. The current research examines the role of risk perception as a mediator. It is assumed that the independent variables have both direct and indirect (through a mediator) effects on the dependent variable (risk mitigation behaviors). A field study was conducted in Tehran, where, recently a destructive earthquake has been announced by Geologist. The study was carried out in the areas which there are several fault lines in the north, east and west sides of the city from March until the end of April 2014. A set of questionnaire with a sample size of 264 was used.
The result of the study demonstrated that there was not a significant relationship between risk perception and actual behaviors of risk mitigation, however, the relationship between risk perception and intention to do risk mitigation behavior was significant. Results of mediator model through Sobel test indicated that the mediator variable of risk perception plays as a mediator for 3 variables of need to be protected, ooptimistic bias, and controllability (Sobel test

According to crisis management cycle, road network substantially play important role in reduction of negative impact of earthquake. In fact, road network fundamentally promotes emergency aids during earthquake and facilitates mobility for citizens after earthquake. This study aims to analyze vulnerability of Aligoodarz's road network and then evaluates urban space accessibility following earthquake. In this regard, combination of graph-theory concepts and GIS-based spatial analysis are used. In the first step, three categories of criteria for the vulnerability of road network have been identified based on the relevant the theoretical foundation. These criteria are relating to vulnerability of build-up area surrounding of roads, topological properties of road network, and functional properties of road network. In the second step, real-world road network is converted to graph network and then the importance of each criterion is achieved based on Analytic Hierarchy process (AHP). In continues, by using AHP's results in GIS spatial analysis, vulnerability map for road network is produced, on a four-point ordinal scale. This map shows that about 42 links which constitute 11.5 percent of total length of roads have the highest degree of vulnerability. In final step, the highest vulnerable roads (links) are eliminated and then urban space accessibility is computed using cost-distance algorithm. The accessibility map also shows that accessibility in some urban areas- mainly central areas- reduces between 40 to 120 meters.

The behavior of gas pipelines in past earthquakes indicate their vulnerability against earthquake. Accordingly, zoning and identifying of areas in terms of earthquake risk, and strengthening the lines of seismic risk, particularly in areas of high seismic risk is of particular importance. The aim of this study was to identify risk locations of earthquakes and earthquake hazard map prepared by the AHP method and the ArcGIS and Expert Choice software. To this end, five layers including layer geology (geological formation), slope, distance to fault, distance from the epicenter of the earthquake layers in ArcGIS height and weight, integration, and ultimately "based on the risk area was zoned into four zones of earthquake risk. The results indicated that the use of AHP model in Mamasani, were 9, 45, 30 and 16% respectively the areas were classified as low risk, medium, high and very high. Nourabad city, based on the AHP model, 32, 67, 1% was respectively was in the medium, high and very high risk area. Moreover, the results showed that the method of AHP, indicated that 61 percent of the pipelines were in the zone with medium risk and those in the high risk zone was 39%.

Many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. In this paper, an indicator based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context.
Finally, presented the number of people injured and killed in different scenarios of human vulnerability caused by fire following the earthquake, in three times (02:00 am, 02:00 pm and 5 pm) in districts 1 and 6 municipal city in Fars province, Iran. Analysis of the data collected according to the methodology of quantitative analysis using methodology and software HAZUS. The estimate of ultimate vulnerability suggests that on the whole the worst scenario, 02:00 am, with the greatest number of casualties, the number of 10918.79 and 27517.72 injured people were killed, a total of 38,436.5 injured (wounded and killed) in the 6th district of Shiraz.

The project has been carried out aiming assaying of thematic structure of risk management with keywords analysis of available documents in ISC by using methods of co-word analysis and social network analysis. the statistical community is consist of all available essays of Iran science profile revolving thematic risk management (made of 504 records in five thematic areas) in (1392-1380). Records shows that “humanity science” and “engineering” area, orderly, have most related documents. Concepts such as: risk, risk assaying, insurance, security chain mark, and credit risk are most used subjects of the risk management area. The side subjects are: energy insurance, animal products, pipelines, gas and electric industry. Regarding to importance of other subjects like: financial risk, and commercial risk, etc. - for promoting and improving effectiveness of organizations - institutions and governments in probes are less concerned. There is need for interdisciplinary studying regarding the nature of interdisciplinary of risk management area by using other methods of scientometrics such as Citation analysis and co-authorship.