نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 4 (بهار 1396)

Technology prognosis is a complex and highly dependent on native structures. The general purpose of technology foresight is a new science that may have many economic, defense and social benefits. The nature of the war is changing and its pace is greater than ever in contemporary history. The 21st-century ground force, in order to be able to attain the highest possible level of strategic and superior maneuverability, should use the ground combat technologies to simultaneously exploit the effects of battlefield, fire and precision maneuvering space awareness. When these changes are fully integrated, the synergy resulting from these various capabilities will make the ground forces in the future battlefields an important factor in national decision making. The Foresight of defensive technologies needed in future wars are a tool that will help senior executives and leaders create a strategic conception of technology for making big decisions. This paper was designed to identify the technology needed by the ground forces in future wars, using the Delphi method. Theoretical foundations of the current research in future wars are based on the Hoffman and Kilcullen theories and in the identification of technology are based on the ideas of Wenwick and Fall; then the views of university professors in the fields of defense, industry and technology were exploited, and the data were analyzed by mixed method. Finally, the identified techniques were presented.

UAVs or unmanned aerial vehicle, besides being used in its main missions, can be used in different categories such as reconnaissance, intelligence, espionage, guidance of smart weapons toward target and direct attack against targets. The defense organizations including Air Force, requires combat and defense readiness on the basis of probable future wars and incidents, and in order to enhance their operational capabilities, they must have a better cognition of how to use UAVs properly. The researcher in order to present a comprehensive pattern for an optimal usage of UAVs in empowerment of defense organization operations, performed this study on the basis of field and documentation by taking advantage of descriptive, case-field methods and referring to authorities and experts pertain to UAVs in the Air Force and General Staff of Army as statistic sample. A purposeful sampling had been chosen and they were given questionnaires. Upon receiving the data, the study findings had been analyzed by analytical exploratory factor method. The results of this study showed that the defense organizations ( such as Air Force) in order to use UAVs to enhance operational capabilities must pay a special attention to the four components: missions (Strategic, operational and tactical), knowing the air threat (intensity, nature and type), capabilities and functions (effective operation, maintenance, and subsystems), ground and aerospace support (smart and integral command and control, equipment and necessary infrastructure and a secure supply chain).

In the defense industries, R & D and future studies are essential because of the rapid technological changes. Defense research organizations can use the capabilities of other research centers, universities, and industry in meeting their research needs. However, the proper exploitation and the effectiveness of using external capabilities depend on the managerial, scientific and technical capabilities of the organization. Therefore, outsourcing, as one of the new management tools can be effective in future defense R&D projects with observing specific considerations of the defense sector. As no research has been conducted on the identification of strategic factors for outsourcing R&D projects in the defense industries area, the objective of this study is to identify and prioritize these strategic factors in defense industries over the next ten years. This study, in terms of purpose is applied, and in terms of method is descriptive-survey. The factors affecting the outsourcing of R&D projects in the defense industry have been extracted by review of the literature and views of defense industry experts and questionnaire approved by experts and the results were examined using confirmatory factor analysis method and structural equation method and SMART PLS software. In this research, seven factors affecting the outsourcing of R&D projects in defense industries along with 32 indicators were identified and confirmed, which paying attention to all of them is important. According to views of experts and the results of the Analytical Network Process (ANP), the strategic factor was placed in the first priority, and the Knowledge Management, Technological, supplier management, system, financial, and the networking infrastructure were placed in second to seventh priorities, respectively.

The Future Studies of Knowledge is a way of shaping the future and protecting people from being surprised by the tremendous storm of change. The Yemeni state is located in Southwest Asia and is strategically important. It has been a history of colonialism and history pages This country has filled the events. Yemen strategically plays an important role in expanding the ideas of the Islamic Revolution in West Asia. Identifying the Future Factors of Yemen for Strategic Planning Iran is needed in this country. The presence of Yemen in the aftermath of the Alliance's attack on Arabia reflects the fact that Iran needs strategic planning in this situation. The purpose of this study is to explain the key factors and drivers of Yemen's future for the 10-year horizon. Future and Future Studies combine with cross-matrix analysis, review of resources and expert panel, by Mick Mac software. The project has been used by 21 experts and experts from the field. Out of 78 effective Propulsions in the future of Yemen, 20 final drivers were selected and then using the cross-matrix analysis method, five key drivers: US military intervention in Yemen, Yemen's breakdown, the failure of the revolutionary government, the establishment of a federal government in Yemen, and the positions of the world powers against Ansarullah, were identified. The use of these propellers can help to overcome the strategic obsessions of Iran in the Yemeni issue and help strengthen the recognition of alternative futures and proper planning.

The Pattern of governance on multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk in Iraq is still one of the major sources of tension and even conflicts in this country. Silent geo-cultural and geo-economic characteristics of this city have led to presence of actors at different levels that are stakeholder and effective in this region. Kirkuk is crucially important for the Kurds of Iraq, and in case of its join to the Kurdistan region in Iraq, the process of their independence will accelerate. To this end, the future of governance over Kirkuk is also important for Iran and Turkey, as well as Iraqi groups and the government of Iraq. because, if the Kurds of Iraq are independent, national security and territorial integrity of both countries can be affected. Given this necessity, as well as the multiplicity of stakeholders in the Kirkuk, current paper attempts to run a future study on governance pattern in this city using the actor analysis methods and MACTOR as an actor-cantered software. For this purpose, 13 actors and 4 patterns of governance were investigated using library resources and expert methodology. In addition to the analysis of the software findings, ultimately a preferred model, "Introduction of Kirkuk as a Multicultural and Special City", was described, which relatively provides the main interests of the actors. Such a model is more urgent in the new circumstances resulting from the referendum on the independence of the Kurdistan region in Iraq in September 2017.

Climate change is one of the 15 Millennium Challenges for the Future of the World and is one of the seven major challenges facing Iran. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with three climate drivers, presented four possible scenarios by 2100. Each of these scenarios describes the main indicators of climate change, such as temperature and precipitation. But little research has been done about the different implications of these changes in different parts of the world. Climate change over the last 20 years in Iran has had a lot of devastating consequences. Iran is in the semi-arid belt of the world. So, in the last 20 years, there has been a drought, a crisis of microstates, migration, floods, air pollution, severe heat, extreme cold, local conflicts. It is anticipated that in the future the consequences of climate change will spread to Iran. These consequences can have different environmental, political, economic, social and military-security dimensions. We answered this question in this paper that: In the next 30 years, the consequences of climate change, What threats are there in the military arena for the Islamic Republic of Iran? By using the next wheel method and combining this method with expert panels and brainstorming, we achieved more than five possible military threats in the 30-year horizon, the most important consequences are: Border security, social security, internal chaos, foreign conflicts and imposing heavy economic costs on troops.