فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی
پیاپی 26 (تابستان 1397)

The main purpose of the political systems from establishing and providing a license to the security institutions is to use these intelligence activities to protect policy makers from the loss of security or security threats. In this regard, the main philosophy of the intelligence cycle is to warn against future anti-security events; on this basis, intelligence defeat is defined as surprise and unpredictable crisis. The purpose of this study is to explain the 'optimal warning cycle' in intelligence – security activities and to answer the main question of “what stages form the optimal warning cycle?”. In order to answer this question, this study uses library study and the Delphi method in three phases and the idea of 7 experts in intelligence and security field to reach a theoretical stability and consensus. As a result, the proposed optimal cycle was formed with five peripheral stages: need assessment, warning, vigilance and prevention and a connecting core in the form of assessment and production of 'knowledge'.

Regardless of the dimensions and components of any organizational architectural pattern, the academic framework that is characterized by the knowledge of this domain as an important process and perspective, is necessary to complete any organizational architectural pattern. Indigenizing scientific patterns does not mean to backtrack on its scientific principles. Knowledge dimension of architecture as the scientific form of organizational architecture prevents the pattern from losing its effectiveness and provides a basis for measuring scientific efficiency of the pattern. In security organizations such as other organizations, the existence of an organizational architectural pattern is essential and knowledge dimension is regarded as one of the main and regulatory elements of it. This is an applied- developmental study and employs quantitative approach and library collection tools and questionnaire (with content validity and Cronbach’s alpha of. /82). The purpose of the study is to determine the place of scientific principles of organizational architecture in security organizations, which indicates that in these organizations, knowledge dimension as part of organizational architectural patterns is equal to the common frameworks of organizational architecture and consist of the components of elements and concepts, functions, requirements, products and direction makers. A common understanding in the field of bases and concepts is more important than other components. The scientific dimension of architecture requires optimal performance of cognitive, supervisory and executive functions of security organizations and plays a role in providing the security of security authorities.

There is no doubt about the necessity of creating security for the entire population and the totality of society by the ruling political system. The claim of Islam and the progressive school of Shiite Islam about having practical program for all periods and acts and human needs, also necessitates the implementation of studies for exploiting security concepts and methods of creation and protection of it, so that the framework and guidelines for Islamic societies can be achieved. Most of the researches on religious texts take place in the field of jurisprudence and other dimensions are of lesser interest. Among them, it can be said that security and intelligence dimension has the least research interest in the religious heritage. Nahj al-Balaghah was not an exception to this rule as the legacy of Islam and Shiism and so far the vast majority of researches have focused on the ethical orders of Amir al-Mu'minin Ali (PBUH). This study employs descriptive-analytical method and by focusing on the letter of 53 Nahj al-Balaghah addressed to Malik bin Ashtar Nakha'i as the governor of Egypt, attempts to focus on the pure heritage of Islam and Shiite on the one hand and the study of the only era that the imams have been at the top of the political administration to explains the security and protective dimensions and components that Imam Ali (PBUH) describes as the behavioral characteristics of an Islamic ruler to his governor. The study results show that among the six protective dimensions, three dimensions of personnel security, document security and security of places are more emphasized in this letter of Imam Ali (PBUH). In this regard, personnel security with the most frequent components is at the top of the commands of the Imam and in the two other aspects, the main attention of the Imam is on the human factor and this can be a reason for showing the human making nature of the school of Imams (PBUH).

In security research studies, conventional patterns of threat estimation for the analysis and prediction of threats surrounding Islamic republic of Iran are ineffective, due to neglecting the function of religious values, considering material elements exclusively and the lack of consideration of spiritual and divine factors. Hence, the main question of the study is that “what are the most basic components explaining the intrinsic and inherent characteristics of the Islamic republic of Iran, for the estimation of threats?”. The semiotic method was used to answer this question. The summary of this research is that as values penetrate from the level of behavior and social actions to the inner layers of emotions and beliefs, the security coefficient increases and the immunity forms against threats are formed and if the opposing signs of values penetrate from the outer layer to the heart and belief layers, provided that there are hostile intentions, geographic range, time sequence, social background, and change in the threat wave from the social level to the security level and weakness of management power, threat gets deeper and intensifies.

Terrorism is a fixed attribute on the horizon of the future of humanity and technological advancements, thought, tactics and terrorism’s weapons have led governments to make a vision in order to reduce the possible vulnerability factor and adopt an active and proactive position rather than passive and reactive position on how to deal with terrorism. The purpose of this study is to study the terrorism and the security of the international system as a future problem, using the Delphi method. For this purpose, participants in this article are 20 experts in the field of terrorism and futures studies. Furthermore, Judgmental and snowball sampling method was used to select the experts and in the process of the Delphi implementation experts reached consensus on 17 questions. The study results indicate that the continuation and escalation of terrorism in the next decade will be the most likely scenario and the stimulus of technological change, globalization, the world population rise and climate change are effective factors in the creation and spread of terrorism. Threats from cyber and internet terrorism will increase in the next decade and terrorist groups will use unconventional weapons and suicide attacks throughout the world to achieve their goals and terrorist groups in the future pose serious threats to military, economic, human, and environmental security. These results indicate that three strategies; 1. integrated global approach to terrorism, 2. preventative strategy in the form of confronting with terrorism and destroying roots and thinking principles and beliefs of it, 3. the strategy of suppression and technical and operational confronting with manifestations of terrorism could be effective against these threats.

In this study, the comprehensive package of threats against the administration system of the Islamic republic of Iran is analyzed by two perspectives of threat effectiveness and threat importance. Enemies of this country have been designed and implemented different threats for many years with an all - out approach against this system and country. The effect based approach in the structure of the ways of addressing these threats requires that the different forms of these threats be recognized and analyzed. For this purpose, the pattern of the seven-headed dragon of war, which has been developed to explain the gradual change and transform pattern of war from the hard circuit to soft and semi-rigid circuits is employed. This study utilizes the exploratory approach to extract the threats and the data are extracted using the focus group research method. According to the results of this analysis, among the fields of military, political, economic, social, cultural, and ideological warfare battlefields, the field of psychological warfare is the most efficient war battlefield against the Islamic republic of Iran. In each battlefield of war, specific and different threats are designed against the Islamic republic of Iran’s system in which twelve main threats have been identified. Among the twelve threats of overthrowing the system, overthrow through the political war arena is the most important threat that is known. This assessment shows that in the ideological battlefield we have encountered a strategic neglect that the casualties of the Islamic republic of Iran in this field are very considerable.