فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال ششم شماره 2 (پیاپی 21، تابستان 1398)

In this paper, the economic resilience that shows the degree and ability of the economy in dealing with monetary and currency shocks is analyzed using a standard Keynesian dynamic equilibrium standard model of Keynesian. The data used in this article are fixed prices in 2011 and annually for the period of 1966-2016, taken from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results indicate that the reaction of inflation to expansionary monetary policy shocks depends on the amount of adhesion parameter, and production in the economy will increase with increasing price sticking parameter. Given the relative risk aversion ratio, consumption will decrease in response to monetary shocks.

The financial stability of banks and the prevention of bank failures are very important as the core of monetary and financial activities. This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables on insolvency risk of Iranian banks. In this regard, 18 state and private banks were studied for period 1386-1395. To test the hypothesis, the multivariate regression analysis and Generalized Method of Moments based panel data are used. The results of testing hypotheses show that inflation and GDP growth has a significant and positive impact on the insolvency risk and the fixed assets and securities owned index (average price of a square meter of housing units in 32 selected cities), liquidity, oil revenues and state tax revenues has a significant and negative impact on the insolvency risk. Also, control variables including credit risk and liquidity risk has a significant and positive impact on the insolvency risk and capital ratio and bank size has a significant and negative impact on the insolvency risk.

In last years, one of the main challenges facing the Iranian economy has been economic sanctions. These sanctions have been imposed for various reasons and have been aimed at influencing various economic sectors of Iran. Accordingly, management of the hazard of economic sanctions is one of the most important priorities of policy makers. Therefore, the purpose of this study is classify various types of economic sanctions based on the nature and source of sanctions, and then these sanctions are ranked according to the hazards that affect the Iranian economy. For this purpose, using the fuzzy AHP method and the opinion of experts and experts, the hazards of economic sanctions against Iran are estimated based on two criteria: "imposed costs on economy" and "ability to bypass sanctions". According to the results, United Nations financial-banking sanctions with 56 percent, UN oil sanctions with 21 percent, EU financial-banking sanctions with 15 percent, and EU oil sanctions with the highest hazards of sanctions The Iranian economy. They had a total of more than 78 percent of the total threat of sanctions against Iran. On the other hand, a variety of sanctions imposed by the United States include a total of 15 percent of the hazard of sanctions. As a result, among all the sanctions, the importance of UN / EU financial-banking, and oil sanctions is much more than other sanctions that should be taken into account in the plans and policies adopted.

Although stock market bubbles play an important role in determining stock price and economic fluctuations, their explanation based on fundamental principles of the economy is a challenging task. The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors shaping the price bubbles of the Tehran Stock Exchange according to a Bayesian DSGE model in the real business cycles framework. Stock price bubbles in this model appear endogenously as a positive feedback mechanism that is supported by optimistic beliefs.  Based on the obtained results, the sentiment shock was introduced as the most important source of bubbles fluctuations followed by fluctuations in the stock price. This shock reflects households’ beliefs about the relative size of bubbles and is passed to the real economy through credit constraints. This shock also expresses a large part of the fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment. Also, the labor supply shock and the investment-specific technology shock had a dominant role in creating employment and investment fluctuations, respectively.

Financial Stress Index as a measure of a systemic risk that quantify stress throughout the entire financial system and describes the contribution of each section of the financial market to the overall stress of the system. In this paper, a composite index for measuring the stress of the Iran’s financial system proposed using a portfolio approach. This indicator is a combination of stress variables in different parts of the Iran’s financial system (stock market, debt market, banking sector, money market and exchange rate market). To aggregate these variables, EWMA, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-GARCH) and BEKK-GARCH used to examine the cross-correlations structure between the subindices during the period of March 2010 to March 2018. In the end, to determine which of the stress indicators designed for the financial system of Iran is more desirable, the results of the prediction of the VAR model used to explain the changes in GDP. The results of the comparison of the prediction criteria showed that differences in the performance of these indices are not significant, although the stress index produced by BEKK-GARCH method performed better and in comparison with the other two methods used to estimate subindices cross-correlation, better explains the changes in the economy activity.

This article examined some aspects of financial cycle in Iran's economy by using seasonal observations during 1990 to 2016. Moreover, the structural time series model with unobserved components and the Kalman filter are utilized, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The results indicate that, first, the ratio of loan to deposit has been volatile and the gap between loan and deposit as a funding gap is one of the causes of the financial crisis. Moreover, by using Markov's switching model, we identified the primacy of credit acceleration to the banking crisis.Second, the financial cycle emanate from credit expansion and in turn the increase in the ratio of credit to GDP. Third, Logit regression indicates a positive relationship between the probability of a banking crisis and the ratio of credit to GDP.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of Iran's oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in the form of DSGE model during the period of 1995-2015 in the context of open economy based on the real business cycle pattern, in line with the conditions of the Iranian economy including households, enterprises, government and The monetary authority is the oil sector with an emphasis on the National Development Fund. The results of simulation of the model variables indicate that, due to the positive impetus of oil revenues, production, consumption, investment, government spending under both scenarios increases, but the increase in the direct tax distribution scenario is higher than the base scenario. Also, the greater the share of government-owned oil revenues (50 and 75 percent) in households from the current budget, the increase will also be higher in the resources of the National Development Fund. Consequently, the contribution of the Facility to the Private Sector (F) increases. According to the modeling of this study, the increased private sector investment ( ) also increases, as a result of non-oil production in the country. Therefore, based on the results obtained, the direct tax-deductible distribution policy is recommended as a supplement to the National Development Fund.

Nowadays exchange rate management and eliminating its deviation is one of the main challenges of policy makers in countries such as Iran. Because any abnormal fluctuation and deviation of exchange rate can affect other economic sectors negatively. This article tried to evaluate exchange rate misalignment in Iran in context of inflation regimes in favor of reality of results. To do that by applying Markov Switching technique inflationary regimes which have taken place in Iran’s economy over period of 1990-2017 were extracted and consequently by applying a monetary exchange rate determination approach nominal exchange rate misalignment has been calculated. The results imply that in high inflationary regime the absolute value of misalignment is much greater than low inflationary regime. Meanwhile when in low inflationary regime a positive inflation shock on nominal exchange rate has an increasing but degenerating impact, but in high inflationary regime it leads to a persistent great increase in nominal exchange rate that continues for ever. These findings could have useful policy implications for authorities.

In the current research, using the wavelet method and coherence analysis, it is tried to redefine the relationship between the growth of money (the monetary base and liquidity) and inflation in the economy of Iran. To this end, using the available seasonal data (1982-2017), the coherence of these variables is investigated in different time periods. Unexpectedly, the results indicate that in assessment of the relationship between liquidity and inflation, monetary policies based on liquidity changes has no significant impact on the inflation, but the growth of monetary base in the middle and long term has a direct relationship with inflation and this justifies quantity money theory in Iran more than liquidity variable. Therefore, it seems that, in the long run, the change in liquidity factor is not a suitable strategy for Iran's economy, but in the case of the monetary base, the result is somewhat different and shows in the medium and long term it will have significant impact on monetary policy and inflation. In other words, despite the current study suggests the liquidity variable is endogenous (lag effect) in the short and middle term, but according to available information, one cannot rule out the exogenous hypothesis of the monetary base in the Iranian economy. So, in the long run, on the basis of quantity money theory, money supply (especially monetary base) is still a powerful policy tool owned by the Central Bank of Iran. It is important to note that with regard to special potential of wavelet method in which the simultaneous investigation of short-term and long-term causality is done between time series of variables and the severity of the relationship between them, one cannot consider the inflation as a monetary phenomenon in all periods of times.

The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of housing market on real sector of economy and to identify its role in business cycle process. To this end, the paper has used a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. The specific feature of this models is that it has containes two types of households: Patient and Impatient. Patient households had greater discount factor. They save and accumulate capital and they produce goods and services. Patient households also supply funds to impatient households who have smaller discount factor. The maximum amount which impatient households can borrow depends on the value of house owned by them. In fact, this assumption tries to impose the collateral constraint which emphasized by Bernanke (1995) in the model. This channel has a crucial role in transmitting the housing market shocks to real sector. To estimate the model, we used both Calibration and Bayesian approaches. We estimated the model using quarterly data over the period 2005Q1–2017Q4. Results of IRFs indicated that a positive shock to housing preference (housing demand shock) generated an increase in Real Housing Prices, Real Investment in Housing and Non-housing Sectors, Real Consumption and Real GDP. Also to identify the role of collateral effect in the positive relationship between housing and real sector we set the amount of collateral effect in the model equal to zero and then we calculated IRFs again based on this assumption. Results showed that collateral effect have played a key role in transmission mechanism of housing shocks to real sector.