فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 78 (بهار 1398)

Easley and O'Hara (1992) introduce Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) concept to measure the degree of asymmetric information in market. Since then there has been a lot of debate on the accuracy of the calculations for PIN. Lin and Ke (2011) by using Factorization method and Yan and Zhang (2012) using Grid-Search based methods introduced other ways to improve the accuracy of the measurement. In this paper, we compare four different methods of PIN calculation for 206 selected companies for listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). We used maximum likelihood method to estimate parameters. The results show that the average of PIN for LK methodology is 0.242 and for EHO is 0.281 in our sample. Moreover, clustering Approach is faster which make it more suitable for practical applications in the real market. Comparison of standard deviation of different methods shows that Grid Search approach is more stable with lower variations in the results.

Population aging was one of the most important concerns of the last century all over the world. In this study, in order to investigate the effect of demographic changes on some macroeconomic variables, Diamond two-stage overlapping generation model (OLG model) is applied. In this model, we consider an economy inhabited by two-period lived overlapping generations, the length of each period is considered thirty years.  From the life cycle perspective, the first period represents working period and the second one is considered as the  retirement period. This model consists of three sectors: household, government and production which operate in a competitive market. Simulations indicate that 6 components affect the economic growth: labor supply, savings rate, capital deepening and public investment have positive effects and elder labor supply and tax have negative effects on growth. The component of capital deepening and public investment respectively has the strongest impact on economic growth. The model has some predictions based on the replacement of endogenous growth with exogenous growth. Predictions about endogenous and exogenous growth shows the replacement has negligible impact on the results.

Paying attention to economic development has always been one of the main concerns of science and politics, and in order to put economic development in a suitable path, its continuous recognition is essential. The recent findings and experiences of countries Show that creativity is the most important and basic factor for the growth and development of the economy. This study aims to scrutinize the effect of creativity index on the economic development of Iran for the 1990-2016 period by using generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings support the idea that economic growth and development is more dependent on creativity and innovation than on formal education. In other words, education can affect economic growth and development, only  if it results in creativity and innovation. Also the findings clarify that high-technology exports have the most effect on economic growth and patenting inventions has a positive effect on economic growth. Thus, it is suggested that by providing a creative ecosystem and supporting the rights of patenting, we will have creative and innovative system in the society so that through diversified economy which relies on knowledge, higher human resources, and modern technology will promote sustainable growth and development.

The law of Targeted Subsidies on energy carriers has been implemented for seven years. There are still many uncertainties about the effectiveness of this law, which has raised many questions for energy economists. One of the main questions in this regard is the estimation of embodied energy subsidy for net export of goods and services at the level of the economic sectors that has not been taken into consideration by Iranian researchers. To answer this fundamental question, we measure the net exports of embodied energy subsidy for goods and services with using the price-gap approach and applying Iranian Input-Output table for year 2011. In addition, for assuming the differences of embodied energy in unit of Iran’s imported and exported commodities, it is measured according to the ratio of the world average energy intensity to Iran’s energy intensity. The results of this study show that while some sectors of the economy such as basic metals are faced net exports of embodied energy, the net value of the embodied energy subsidy in the content of exporting goods and services is not consistent with the net export of embodied energy, and policy makers cannot employ pricing policies, such as increasing the price of energy carriers, to manage and control the implicit energy subsidy. Accordingly, the government has recommended adjusting the prices of energy carriers in line with international prices as well as improving technology by creating an efficient financing market.

Existing congestion in the urban transport network involves many costs such as air pollution, delays for passengers, and increased fuel consumption. Internalizing congestion externality cost is a basis for transportation congestion pricing. This policy is implemented in many metropolitans worldwide. One of the methods used in network pricing is the use of a belt pricing. This pricing is made up of a number of arcs that surround the crowded city and passengers who are going to cross these arcs and enter this area are required to pay a fee. The most important issue in this pricing method is to determine the amount of toll imposed on these arcs. The purpose of this research is to determine optimal congestion toll in a particular cordon-based network in which user benefits are maximized. In this study, in order to find the optimal amount of toll, a combinatorial bi-level optimization problem is introduced, in such a way that net social surplus is maximized at the upper level, and user equilibrium problem with elastic demand is solved at the lower level, then genetic algorithm in the MATLAB software is used to solve this model. The results show a toll of 13 thousand Rials for entrance to cordon per hour in 2016, would increase the network user benefits by 41 percent.

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of saving rate on money demand function’s regime change in the framework of nonlinear smooth transition auto-regressive method covering the period 1352-1396. In this regard, the linear model was tested against nonlinear model and it revealed that nonlinear model is better. Then, the nonlinear logistic model is distinguished by using Trasvirta test. The results indicated that error adjustment speed in linear models is different from nonlinear ones. Adjustment speed is different in various interest rates. If interest rate of bank deposits is very low, money demand function will quickly adjust itself. As the interest rate of deposits increase, the adjustment speed of money demand function will decrease.

The Inequality of production efficiency is one of the main factors contributing to inequalities in economic growth among different regions. This study examines the factors affecting production efficiency by using province-level data for the period 2006-2015 by applying spatial Tobit model and translog production function approach. Results show that Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Khorasan Razavi Provinces, have the highest and lowest efficiency 0.63 and 0.09 respectively. Also, the results of spatial Tobit model estimation show that industrialization with a coefficient of 0.0018 has a positive and significant effect and increase of ratio of credits to production with a coefficient of 0.0013 has a negative and significant effect on the production efficiency of provinces. In addition, the spillover effects of industrialization and the ratio of credits are -0.0104 and 0.0042 respectively. Therefore basic development of industry and allocation of resource on the relative advantage is one of the most important factors for improving the production efficiency and increasing economic growth.