فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 96 (پاییز 1402)

The relationship between economic, financial, political risks and per capita carbon emission (CO2) is considered as one of the major global challenges. The effect of these three factors on carbon emissions is very important. Therefore, the current research seeks to investigate the role of economic, financial, and political risk in reducing per capita carbon emissions (CO2) by using the very new and fresh approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1990 to 2018. The statistical relationship between the variables mentioned in Eviews12 and Matlab2022 software platform has been investigated for Iran. The results show that the economic risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively stronger in the quantiles (0.3 to 0.95), of the economic risk variable. the financial risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the financial risk variable, as well as Politics risk has a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) and this positive relationship is relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the Politics risk variable. Thus, the need to pay attention to Iran's economic, financial, and political stability to improve the environment's quality and reduce carbon emission (CO2) is very important.

This paper examines the potential of government fiscal support in mitigating the consequences of shocks, particularly in relation to the infection rate of contagious diseases. The focus is on the emergence of Covid-19 and the various interventions implemented by governments to combat it. The study utilizes a cross-country analysis, using a dataset that includes government fiscal measures, infection rates, and selected institutional and economic metrics from different countries. To isolate the effects of vaccinations, the analysis is specifically focused on the year 2020. The findings indicate that a one percentage point increase in the ratio of direct government spending to GDP corresponds to an approximate 0.08 percentage point reduction in the confirmed infection rate. Given the average infection rate of 1.6 percent in 2020, this translates to a significant 5 percent decrease in infection rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the effectiveness of fiscal support measures is influenced by the institutional quality of the countries. Higher institutional quality is associated with greater effectiveness of fiscal support measures in reducing the infection rate. Furthermore, the study highlights that the impact of government spending on reducing the infection rate is enhanced when accompanied by the implementation of governmental rules.

The negative consequences of financial crises require the attention of economic policymakers and decision making centers.Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the present study has investigated the effects of global financial crises on the trade patterns of Iran and its partners during the years 1995-2018.The variables have been estimated in the framework of the gravity model using the pseudo poisson maximum likelihood method.The findings show that the Asian financial crisis (1997) has an effective role in reducing the volume of trade but this result is the opposite in relation to the American financial crisis (2007) ; Because instead of a threat, it has become an opportunity for the movement of business flows. In this situation, it seems that the difference in the intensity and type of impact of financial crises on trade patterns can be affected by the nature of the crisis or the region where the crisis started.

Climate change, caused by the increase in the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, is one of the critical issues that mankind has faced and has created significant risks for both humans and the environment. In recent decades, many researchers have studied the factors that cause and affect carbon dioxide and their control. Among the factors affecting the emission of carbon dioxide, we can mention the structural labor change, which can play an important role in increasing the emission of carbon dioxide through the increase of industrial activities and economic growth. Therefore, in the present study, the effect of structural labor change on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran’s provinces was investigated using the Quantile regression with non-additive fixed effects presented by Powell (2016). The results show that increasing labor transfer from the agricultural sector to other economic sectors, including services and industry, increases carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, indirectly, the structural labor change index has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran’s provinces. The study also confirmed an inverse N relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. The coefficients obtained for income inequality are negative and significant, while those for per capita energy consumption, industrialization, and urbanization are positive and significant.

The precise measurement of individual time preferences in assessing the economic plans that individuals are involved in, in the estimation of social time preferences, in the assessment of environmental and health plans is very crucial. The purpose of this research is to estimate and also describe the method of estimating individual intertemporal preferences. The sample is 70 students of Allameh Tabataba'i (A.S) and Payam Noor Universities. For this purpose, the experimental method, which allows controlling the confounding variables, is used. In order to estimate the discount function among various functions, the hyperbolic function had a better fit on the data. In this type of function, the discount does not take place at a fixed rate, but with the extension of the selection period, the discount decreases. The fitting of data using the hyperbolic function showed that this kind of discounting is consistent with past research. The average individual discount rate obtained was 0.0615 with a standard deviation of 0.796.

One of the factors that change the results of the expansionary monetary policy through the credit channel on the economy is the financial frictions that affected Iran's economy especially in the 2002’s and 2022’s. These frictions are manifested in variables such as capital adequacy violations, the ratio of nonperforming loans, the ratio of fixed assets to the total assets of banks, and the government's net debt to banks. In this article, with the help of building a macro structural econometric model in the period of 1968-2022, the effect of expansionary monetary policy on the change of each type of financial friction has been investigated and compared with emphasis on the endogeneity of money on Iran's economy. The obtained results show that due to the endogeneity of money, the influence of the central bank's monetary policy on the real sector of the economy has decreased and most of its effect is manifested in nominal variables such as liquidity, inflation rate and exchange rate. In addition, an increase of one standard deviation in the ratio of nonperforming loans reduces the impact of the expansionary monetary policy on the real sector of the economy more than other mentioned financial frictions. After that, the decrease in capital adequacy, the increase in the government's net debt to banks, and the increase in the ratio of fixed assets to total assets are in the next level of importance of reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The exchange rate, as a fundamental variable, alongside other economic variables, has a significant impact on stock returns. Therefore, this study has investigated the effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations on the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns through linear and nonlinear models during the years 2005 to 2021. In this research, first, the exchange rate fluctuations were modeled using the GARCH model. Then, the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations, along with the macroeconomic control variables including the healthcare consumer price index, oil price, and industry-specific control variables including asset return ratio, asset turnover ratio, and debt ratio as well as the COVID-19 dummy variable, were investigated on the return of the pharmaceutical industry stock using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. The study shows that in both the short and long term, the impact of the exchange rate on pharmaceutical industry stock returns is greater than the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Additionally, negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a negative relationship with the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns, while positive shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a positive effect on the pharmaceutical industry's stock return. The study's findings suggest that the impact of positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have asymmetric effects on the return of pharmaceutical industry stock. Results show that control variables and COVID-19 have significant effects on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in linear and nonlinear models.