فهرست مطالب

اقتصاد پولی، مالی - پیاپی 17 (بهار وتابستان 1398)
  • پیاپی 17 (بهار وتابستان 1398)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1398/09/10
  • تعداد عناوین: 11
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  • علیرضا کرمی*، مجید صامتی، سید کمیل طیبی، لیلا ترکی صفحات 1-42

    قیمت ارز توسط عرضه و تقاضای آن تعیین می شود؛ اما دولت ها می توانند از راه های مختلف بر نرخ ارز تاثیرگذار باشند. میزان و ماهیت دخالت دولت ها در بازارهای ارز، نظام های نرخ ارز را تعریف می کند. درواقع نظام های نرخ ارز، چارچوبی برای تعیین قیمت هستند. این تحقیق به انتخاب نظام ارزی مطلوب برای کشورهای عضو اوپک در دوره زمانی 2015-1990 پرداخته است. انتخاب نظام ارزی مناسب برای یک کشور بسیار حائز اهمیت است؛ زیرا نوسان های نرخ ارز در یک کشور نشان دهنده نظام نامطلوب ارزی تعیین شده برای این کشور بوده و عملکرد سایر متغیرهای اقتصادی آن کشور را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد. برای بررسی مطلوب بودن نظام های ارزی انتخابی توسط یک کشور، لازم است که اثرات این نوع نظام ها بر نرخ ارز و درنتیجه بر سایر متغیرهای اقتصادی ارزیابی شود. ازجمله مهم ترین متغیرهای اقتصادی یک کشور تولید ملی و نرخ تورم است. در این تحقیق برای انتخاب نظام ارزی مطلوب، از دو مدل آرجی (Argy) و معیار تصمیم گیری شاخص های چندگانه (MADM) استفاده شده است. مدل آرجی بر اساس رویکرد حفاظتی طراحی و با کمک روش داده های تابلویی تخمین زده شده است. مدل دوم با به کارگیری معیارهای کیفی و استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل آرجی نشان می دهند که نظام ارزی شناور مدیریت شده برای کشورهای عضو اوپک از دو نظام ارزی ثابت و شناور مناسب تر است. در روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی نیز همین نتیجه به دست آمده است. همچنین در این روش، معیارهای صادرات، قیمت و کارایی اقتصادی به عنوان مهم ترین معیارها برای نظام ارزی شناور مدیریت شده شناخته شده اند.

    کلیدواژگان: نظام ارزی، کشورهای عضو اوپک، داده های تابلویی، تحلیل سلسله مراتبی
  • مریم میرزایی، سید جمال الدین محسنی زنوزی*، حسین اصغرپور صفحات 43-72

    مطالعه سیر تحولات پولی در جهان حکایت از این واقعیت دارد که بسیاری از کشورها در شرایط خاص ناچار به انجام اصلاحات پولی به شیوه های گوناگون شده اند. مهم ترین دلیلی که این کشورها را ناگزیر از اجرای چنین برنامه ای کرده ناکارآمدی نظام تسویه مبادلات پولی و عدم توانایی پول ملی در ایفای وظایف مورد انتظار بوده که به طور عمده ناشی از وجود تورم مستمر در نرخ های بالا است. این تحقیق، تلاش مختصری در شناسایی ابعاد مختلف برنامه اصلاح پولی با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از اجرای برنامه مذکور در برخی از کشورهای جهان است که از جنبه تورمی بودن این سیاست در دو مدل پروبیت رتبه ای و داده های تابلویی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. تجربه این کشورها نشان می دهد که برای موفقیت در اجرای سیاست حذف صفر از پول ملی باید به مجموعه ای از عوامل اقتصادی و سیاسی توجه کرد و مسائلی همچون نرخ تورم و تاثیر آن بر هویت ملی و وجود زیرساخت های لازم برای مساعد بودن اجرای سیاست مذکور بررسی گردد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که ارزش گذاری مجدد پول ملی زیرساخت هایی چون استقلال بانک مرکزی، عدم تامین مالی دولت از طریق انتشار اسکناس و وجود سیستم نرخ ارزی ثابت در یک کشور را می طلبد.

    کلیدواژگان: اصلاح پولی، استقلال بانک مرکزی، نظام ارزی ثابت معتبر، کنترل تورم
  • نوشین کریمی علویجه، محمدرضا لطفعلی پور* صفحات 73-94

    یکی از مباحث مهم در اقتصاد کلان بررسی رابطه بین نرخ بهره و نرخ ارز می باشد. تاثیرات این دو متغیر همواره مورد توجه دولت مردان و سیاست گذاران بوده است. بدین منظور به دلیل دو نرخی بودن نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ایران، در این پژوهش از دو نرخ ارز رسمی و نرخ ارز غیر رسمی استفاده شده است. همچنین در این تحقیق منظور از نرخ بهره، نرخ سود سپرده گذاری کوتاه مدت یک ساله و بلندمدت پنج ساله می باشد که از طرف بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران اعلام می گردد. در این مقاله تابع نرخ ارز با دو الگوریتم بهینه سازی انبوه ذرات و الگوریتم ژنتیک طی سال های 1393-1353 برآورد گردیده است. براساس معیارهای ارزیابی عملکرد، مدل های برآورد شده با الگوریتم بهینه سازی انبوه ذرات برای بررسی رابطه نرخ بهره و نرخ ارز انتخاب شدند. نتایج نشان می دهند که بین نرخ بهره کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت با نرخ ارز رسمی و غیر رسمی رابطه غیرمستقیم و معناداری وجود دارد. در حقیقت افزایش نرخ بهره باعث کاهش نرخ ارز رسمی و غیر رسمی و افزایش ارزش پول ملی می گردد. همچنین در این پژوهش تاثیر نرخ رشد حجم پول و تولید ناخالص داخلی بر نرخ ارز رسمی و غیررسمی، مثبت و مستقیم می باشد. به عبارتی با افزایش نرخ رشد حجم پول و تولید ناخالص داخلی از ارزش پول ملی کاسته می شود.

  • فرشته جندقی میبدی، محمد علی فلاحی*، مهدی فیضی صفحات 95-120

    هدف این مطالعه تعیین رجحان های بانک مرکزی و قاعده بهینه سیاست پولی در ایران با بهره گیری از روش کنترل بهینه است. بدین منظور فرض شد که مقامات پولی مساله بهینه یابی را در چارچوب انتظارات گذشته نگر و با توجه به قیود ساختاری چهارگانه شامل معادله عرضه کل، تقاضای کل، تقاضای پول و مخارج دولت،حل می کنند. پس از برآورد پارامترهای معادلات ساختاری با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی (OLS) و روش رگرسیون های به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) برای دوره زمانی 1357-1395، رجحان های مقامات پولی برای تثبیت تورم، تولید و هموارسازی رشد حجم پول که میزان زیان رفاه اجتماعی را حداقل می کنند، انتخاب شدند. نتایج بیانگر این است که بانک مرکزی باید انحراف رشد حجم نقدینگی و بعد از آن شکاف تولید را مدنظر قرار دهد. همچنین قاعده بهینه سیاست پولی حاصله از رجحان های بهینه، بیانگر این است که بانک مرکزی باید به طور همزمان به تغییرات تورم، شکاف تولید، نرخ ارز واقعی، رشد مخارج دولت، رشد درآمدهای نفتی و مالیاتی واکنش نشان دهد.

  • معصومه محمدی، اسفندیار ملکیان* صفحات 121-154

    فعالیت وعملکرد بانکها یکی از مهمترین وتاثیرگذارترین عوامل بر اقتصاد هر کشوری میباشد.از اینرو تداوم فعالیت بانکها توام با عملکرد مثبت آنها تاثیر بسزائی در اقتصاد وبه طبع آن پیشرفت اقتصادی وتوسعه کشور دارد. هر گونه نوسان وبی ثباتی در آن می تواند بر اقتصاد کلان کشور اثرگذار باشد. بنابراین بررسی عملکرد صنعت بانکداری کشور و تحلیل سلامت بانکی دارای اهمیت است. با توجه به عملکرد سیستم بانکی با بخشهای کلان اقتصاد کشور، هرگونه بی ثباتی وبحران در آن می تواند موجب نوسان و اختلال در بخش کلان اقتصاد شود . لذا بررسی و اطمینان از ثبات و سلامت سیستم بانکی دارای اهمیت است. در این تحقیق ابتدا مهمترین نسبت های مالی مرتبط با شاخص کملز که با توجه به مطالعه پژوهش های داخلی وخارجی در زمینه تحقیقات مرتبط با سلامت مالی بانکها و استفاده از نظر خبرگان گردآوری شده و در ادامه عوامل موثر بر شاخص حاکمیت شرکتی (به عنوان عامل اثر گذار بر شاخص کملز و سلامت بانکداری) با استفاده از نظر خبرگان شناسایی گردید که این امر در هیچ یک از تحقیقات گذشته در نظر گرفته نشده است. در نهایت با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی مجموع عوامل موثر بر شاخص کملز و حاکمیت شرکتی به صورت همزمان رتبه بندی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که پنج عامل برتر در سلامت بانکداری به ترتیب شامل انتخاب مدیریت ارشد از طریق فرآیندهای کارمندیابی وملحوظ نظر داشتن صلاحیت مورد نیاز برای پست مدیریت ارشد، وجود کمیته حسابرسی در بانک، نسبت کفایت سرمایه، تعیین راهبرد وخط مشی سلامت مالی بانک و ساختار سازمانی توسط هیات مدیره و نسبت تسهیلات غیرجاری/تسهیلات می باشد.

  • آرش آرین پور*، یحیی حساس یگانه، جعفر باباجانی صفحات 155-196

    به دنبال افزایش تقاضا برای شفافیت و پاسخگویی در مورد عملکرد شرکت و اثرات آن بر جامعه و ذی نفعان، رهنمود ها، اصول و قوانین و مقررات برای شرکت ها تدوین می شود که شرکت ها بر این اساس، گزارش های خود در ابعاد مختلف را منتشر می کنند. هدف اصلی این مقاله، تحلیل وضعیت گزارشگری عملکرد پایدار اجتماعی و ارتباط آن با هزینه سرمایه در شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است.به منظور دستیابی به هدف اصلی تحقیق، تحقیق در 3 مرحله انجام شد. در مرحله اول، پس از مطالعه مبانی نظری تحقیق و نظرخواهی از 3 گروه خبرگان و با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی تاییدی، 26 شاخص تعیین شد. در مرحله دوم، با بررسی محتوای صورت های مالی و گزارش های هیات مدیره 134 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، وضعیت گزارشگری این شاخص ها طی سال های 95-1391 در صفحه گسترده اکسل ثبت و مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نهایتا در مرحله سوم، پس از جمع آوری داده‏های مربوط به 79 شرکت، فرضیه تحقیق به روش داده های تابلویی مورد آزمون قرار گرفت.یافته ها نشان می دهد که شرکت های مورد بررسی در این تحقیق، در مولفه «رویه های کار و عملکرد مناسب» نسبت به سایر مولفه ها گزارشگری بهتری داشته اند، ولی سطح عملکرد پایدار اجتماعی شرکت ها نسبت به تحقیقات خارجی بررسی شده پایین ارزیابی شده است. هم چنین برخلاف مبانی نظری تحقیق، اطلاعات عملکرد پایدار اجتماعی بر هزینه سرمایه شرکت ها تاثیر مثبت دارد که می تواند ناشی از نوسانات قیمت سهام، نادیده گرفتن ویژگی های خاص شرکت (مانند توانایی مدیریتی یا مهارت های کارکنان) یا اثر متقابل اطلاعات تاریخی و اطلاعات آینده نگر باشد.

  • مهدی باستان*، ساره اکبرپور، علی محمد احمدوند صفحات 197-242

    نظام بانکی در ایران به عنوان یکی از ارکان مهم تامین مالی تولید قلمداد شده و نقش آن در اقتصاد ایران بسیار حائز اهمیت است. بانک های تجاری ایران نیازمند یک مدل کسب وکار مناسب می باشند که در آن ضمن ایفای این نقش، بتوانند سودآوری لازم برای سهامداران خود را نیز ایجاد نماید. سال های زیادی است که بانک های کشور، با جذب سپرده ها و ارائه تسهیلات به مشتریان خود کسب درآمد می کنند، اما شاخص های عملکردی آن ها گویای این امر است که این سازوکار به هیچ وجه نتوانسته است سودآوری و ارزش آفرینی را برای سهامداران آن ایجاد نماید. مسئله اصلی طراحی مدل کسب وکار بر اساس یک رویکرد خطی به سودآوری است که نتیجه اجرای آن پیامدها و بازخوردهایی به همراه دارد که افزایش دارایی های ریسکی و کاهش نسبت کفایت سرمایه بانک را در پی داشته و درنتیجه کاهش ارزش سهام سهامداران بانک را رقم خواهد زد که این نقض مقصود اولیه سودآوری بوده و پارادوکس بانکی نامیده می شود. برای یافتن علل رخداد این مسئله و ارائه راهکار اثربخش برای مدیریت آن، از روش شناسی پویایی شناسی سیستم استفاده شده و در آن با ارائه یک مدل ریاضی، امکان سناریوسازی و شبیه سازی نتایج اجرای سناریوها روی مدل فراهم گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد تغییر در مقادیر پارامترهای مهم ساختار بانکی کشور نظیر نرخ سود سپرده، نرخ سود تسهیلات، نسبت سپرده قانونی به هیچ وجه امکان خروج از پارادوکس سودآوری را میسر نمی کند و راهکار مناسب برای توسعه سودآوری و ارزش آفرینی پایدار برای سهامداران بانک، تغییر مدل کسب وکار بانک از ساختار اعتباری و تسهیلاتی به ساختار خدماتی و کارمزدی و کسب درآمد و سود از محل ارائه خدمات به مشتریان بانک می باشد.

  • عبدالرضا اسعدی* صفحات 243-266

    اقدامات مدیران برای اعمال سیاست های جسورانه مالیاتی در حال گسترش است و شرکت ها تا زمانی که هزینه های این اقدامات بر منافع آن فزونی نیافته به اقدامات خود ادامه می دهند. این پژوهش ارتباط مولفه های ساختار مالکیت و سیاست های جسورانه مالیاتی را با توجه به وضعیت عملکردی شرکت ها بررسی می کند. نمونه آماری مورد بررسی شامل 170 شرکت طی سال های 1390 تا 1395 است. فرضیه های اول تا سوم به بررسی ارتباط بین مولفه های ساختار مالکیت و سیاست های جسورانه مالیاتی و فرضیه چهارم، نقش تعدیل گر عملکرد شرکت ها را آزمون می کند. یافته ها بیانگر وجود رابطه منفی معنادار بین مالکیت دولتی و نهادی با سیاست های مالیاتی است. در حالی که رابطه معناداری بین مالکیت خصوصی با سیاست های مالیاتی مشاهده نشد. همچنین رابطه بین ساختار مالکیت و سیاست های مالیاتی در شرکت های با عملکرد ضعیف و قوی تفاوت معناداری دارد. نتایج مبین آن است که با افزایش میزان مالکیت نهادی و دولتی، مدیران کمتر به اقدامات کاهنده مالیات دست می زنند ولی افزایش مالکیت خصوصی در شرکت ها اقدامات مدیران در زمینه مالیات را تحت تاثیر قرار نمی دهد. از سوی دیگر اثر ساختار مالکیت بر سیاستهای مالیاتی در شرکت های قوی بیشتر است.

  • زهره اسکندری پور، مرضیه اسفندیاری* صفحات 267-292

    هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی درجه عبور نرخ ارز بر قیمت واردات در شرایط نااطمینانی محیطی با تاکید بر تغییرات رژیمی طی دوره زمانی 1352-1395 است. از اینرو از مدل EGARCH و رویکرد چرخشی مارکف استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از مدلسازی بی ثباتی ها نشان داد که شوک های منفی و مثبت به صورت نامتقارن در شکل گیری نااطمینانی متغیرهای نرخ ارز، GDP و درآمدهای نفتی نقش دارند. بر اساس نتایج رویکرد مدل چرخشی مارکف نیز، رابطه بین قیمت واردات با متغیرهای بنیادین آن از الگوی دو رژیمی پیروی می کند. بر مبنای نتایج، نرخ ارز، GDP، باز بودن تجاری و قیمت تولید کالاهای وارداتی در خارج تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قیمت کالاهای وارداتی دارد. همچنین درجه گذر نرخ ارز با لحاظ نااطمینانی های محیطی در هر دو رژیم بیش از واحد است. نااطمینانی های محیطی جزء ثابت درجه ی گذر نرخ ارز بر قیمت واردات را افزایش می دهند و علاوه بر آن شیب گذر نرخ ارز بر قیمت واردات نیز متاثر از نااطمینانی های محیطی است. در این بین نقش نااطمینانی از GDPدر افزایش شیب گذر نرخ ارز مثبت و نسبت به اثرات نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و درآمدهای نفتی بسیار بزرگ است.

  • عباسعلی لطفی* صفحات 293-312

    شکننده و اسیب پذیر ی برای تولید کنندگان فراهم کرده است دولتها جهت حمایت از کشاورزی سیاستها و برنامه هایی را طراحی می کنند که بیمه درامدی یکی از انهاست . این بیمه از طرحهای جدید بیمه ای به شمار می اید که همزمان ریسک قیمت و عملکرد را مدیریت می کند . در این مقاله سعی شده است با برزسی نظریه بیمه درامدی . مزایای ان نسبت به سایر طرحهای بیمهای بیان شود و همچنین با استفاده از اطلاعات قیمت و عملکرد محصولات گندم جو نخود و پیاز در استانهای فارس کرمانشاه کرمان خراسان رضوی واطلاعات سری زمانی مربوطه به سالهای 1380—1393 امکان سنجی ایجاد بیمه درامدی صورت گرفته است .نتایج حاکی از این است که در استان اذربایجان غربی با توجه به بالا تر بودن ضریب تنوع درامدی دذرامد در هر هکتار محصول پیاز از امکان مناسبتری جهت ایجاد یک بیمه درامدی نسبت به گندم ابی و دیم برخوردار است و همچنین گندم ابی در این استان نیز موقییتی مناسبتر دارد در استان کرمانشاه نخود ابی و دیم نسبت به گندم ابی و همچنین گندم ابی نسبت به گندم دیم دارای موقیت مناسبتری از لحاظ ریسک درامدی جهت اجرای الگوی بیمه درامدی هستند در استان فارس محصول گندم نسبت به جو برتری دارد و در کل کشور به ترتیب محصولات پیاز دیم . پیاز ابی . نخود دیم . نخود ابی . گندم ابی . گندم دیم . جو دیم و جو ابی از لحاظ اجرای بیمه درامدیمزیت دارند .

  • علی ارشدی* صفحات 313-335

    وجود یک قطع بندی مناسب اسکناس و مسکوک برای هر پول رایجی از ضرورت های اولیه تسهیل در مبادلات است؛ چراکه در غیر این صورت هزینه های هنگفتی چه به صورت مستقیم و چه غیرمستقیم به بانک مرکزی و به طورکلی اقتصاد کشور تحمیل می گردد. در این میان به دلیل عوامل اقتصادی نظیر تورم، ساختار بهینه دارای یک ماهیت پویاست که هر از چند گاهی نیاز به تعریف قطع جدید را مطرح می کند. این پژوهش، ضمن بررسی مبانی نظری موضوع از حیث عملیاتی به بررسی ساختار قطع بندی اسکناس و مسکوک بر اساس روش D-Metric در ایران می پردازد. نتایج حاصل، حاکی از وجود اشکالاتی در ساختار موجود می باشد که اهم آن عبارت است از:-  دینامیک موجود در ساختار فعلی اقطاع با نرخ تورم همخوانی ندارد. این مسئله از یک سو منجر به از دور خارج کردن اقطاع پایین و فشار به اقطاع بزرگ تر را موجب می شود و از سوی دیگر هزینه های هنگفتی را بابت چاپ و نشر به بانک مرکزی تحمیل می نماید.در ساختار موجود مشکل فضا گذاری (Spacing) وجود دارد که این مسئله فشار به اقطاع ماقبل قطع مفقوده را موجب گردیده است. متوسط تعریف قطع جدید در شرایط فعلی در حدود 10 سال است که این مدت زمان فاصله بسیار زیادی با مدت زمان استخراج شده از روش D-Metric برای ایران که در حدود سه سال است، دارد.

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  • alireza karami*, Majid Sameti, Komail Tayyebi, leila torki Pages 1-42

    Based on the list released by the international organization for standardization (ISO) on January 1st, 2014, there are almost 250 types of currencies in the world for product/service trade and financial flows. The most obvious types of currency are the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, British pound , Japanese Yen, Switzerland Frank, Chinese Yuan, etc. (Evans, 2014).Exchange rate is determined by its supply and demand while the governments can affect it through different ways. The amount and nature of government involvement in the exchange rate markets define the exchange rate systems. In fact, the exchange rate systems are a framework for determination of the price. There are generally three groups of exchange rate systems including floating, fixed, and managed system. In the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate is only determined by the market forces without the involvement of the government. The exchanges change continuously because the exchange supply and demand have volatility. In the managed exchange rate system, the exchange rate can be changed while the governments participate in the exchange markets to affect the exchange rates. In the fixed exchange rate system, the governments demand for stabilizing the exchange rates through participation in the market or regulating systems (Rittenberg, 2012).

    Theoretical Framework

    Selecting an appropriate exchange rate system is of great importance for an economy because it affects the exchange rate and other economic variables of a country (e.g. the general level of prices and production). Determination of the exchange rate system after the collapse of Bretton Woods system became more important because there was already a kind of fixed and somewhat adjustable exchange rate system in the countries. After the collapse of Bretton Woods system, the countries such as the petroleum exporting countries questioned which exchange rate system is more important for their economies. In such countries, the petroleum export was considered as a main factor affecting the exchange rate because this factor affects both export and government revenues as well as the exchange rate system in such countries. One of the important frameworks to select the exchange rate system was the exchange rate protective property. Based on this framework, each exchange rate system protecting the economy of the country against the entered shocks is appropriate for its economy (Komijani&Arabi, 2002).

    Methodology

    The main purpose of this study was to determine the framework exchange rate system for OPEC member countries during 1990-2015. By using the method and results of this study, the exchange rate markets and policymakers can select an appropriate system for their countries to have the minimum volatility for the exchange rate resulting in no negative effect on the economy of their country.is study, the models of Argy, Multiple-criteria and decision-making were used to select the proper exchange rate system in OPEC member countries.In the first model, after explaining the Argy model and presenting six price and production functions for all fixed, floating, and managed exchange rate systems, Chow, Hausman, Breusch and Pagan, Heteroscedasticity of variance, and autocorrelation tests were performed by STATA software. Then, based on the data collected for 1990-2015, the parameters of the above six parameters were estimated by GLS method and the production and price values were calculated by Excel software. Finally, the loss function was obtained for each country and exchange rate system by calculating and adding the numerical value of production and price variance.

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that the managed rate system was selected as an appropriate system for all OPEC member countries except Ecuador, Qatar, and Nigeria because the loss function value for this type of exchange rate system was less than the other exchange rate systems. The appropriate exchange rate system for all above mentioned countries was the fixed exchange rate system. As a general result in the studied period, the proper exchange rate system for OPEC member countries was the managed exchange rate system. In the second model, the analytical hierarchy model was used. so that, the factors affecting the evaluation and selection of an appropriate exchange rate system were categorized in three groups of fixed, managed, floating, and 33 sub criteria. The results obtained from by using the weight of qualitative data in Expert Choice software showed that the managed exchange rate system with the weight of 70.1% was the most appropriate exchange rate system and floating exchange rate system with the weight of 19.6 and fixed exchange rate system with the weight of 10.6 were respectively after the managed exchange rate system. In addition, in the managed exchange rate system, the export with the weight of  29.8%, general level of prices and production with the weight of  22.5, and economic efficiency with the weight of 13.3% were the most effective sub criteria for the managed exchange rate system.

    Conclusions and Suggestions

    As the results of both models indicated, the proper exchange rate system for OPEC member countries was the managed exchange rate system.Based on the important role of exchange rate system in determination of exchange rate and its effectiveness on macroeconomic variables and helping the policymakers to better select the exchange rate system, considering the managed floating exchange rate system is suggested.

    Keywords: Exchange Rate System, OPEC Member Countries, Panel Data, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
  • Maryam Mirzayi, Seyed Jamaledin Mohseni Zonouzi*, Hossein Asgharpur Pages 43-72
    Introduction

    The study of monetary evolution in the world points to the fact that many countries, in certain circumstances, have had to implement monetary reforms in different ways. The most important reasons that have made these countries to perform such programs were the inefficiency of system of monetary transactions liquidation and the inability of national currency in fulfilling the expected duties which have been mainly resulted from continuous high rates of inflation.Modifying the currency or removing a few zeros from the country's currency has become one of the Iran's economic needs for facilitating trade exchanges. This is a subject that has been on the agenda of the Central Bank since many years ago. The removal of zero from national currency is an action aimed at increasing the nominal value of money. Therefore, considering the current state of inflation in Iran in recent years and the government's determination to implement an economic transformation plan, part of which is a change in the currency and the benefits provided for this policy, process of conducting and reviewing the effects Such an action seems to be extremely necessary for controlling inflation. This study is an attempt to identify the different dimensions of monetary reform plan with respect to the results obtained from implementing the afore-mentioned plan in certain countries. From an inflation perspective, this policy has been investigated in two ordered Probit and Panel data models.

     Theoretical Framework

    Monetary reform or currency redenomination is a policy making and planning aimed at improving the national currency of a country. It is a series of structural and monetary reforms that by adopting monetary policies supports foreign exchange and financial policies to maintain the value of national currency in the domestic (the stability of the general level of prices or inflation rate) and foreign (Maintaining equivalence with other currencies) context. The other category of monetary reform focuses only on surface changes, which is usually the concept of changing the currency of a banknote. And it can be categorized into three general categories of changing the name of the currency of one country, the removal of a few zero of the currency and a combination of both. In some cases, it has been seen that the countries, together with the reformation of the banknotes, are attempting to change the rate of national currency equivalents with the global currencies. In addition, the formation of monetary unions, such as the euro monetary union, is also assessed as a monetary reform (dogarawa, 2010).In general, countries with high inflation have been to implement monetary reform and have benefited from it, but studies have shown that due to high research and operational costs of monetary reform, these countries did not implement it except in emergency conditions. It is noteworthy that some countries that engage in this reform have experienced a 5000 percent inflation, and almost all countries that have changed their currency have experienced inflation above 100 percent. One of the common features of countries that have implemented monetary reform is providing arrangements to do it. All the countries that have been reforming have somehow benefited from implement monetary reform, which initially controls inflation with corrective actions and policies. In fact, those countries that didn’t consider inflation control, accepted the heavy costs of changing monetary unit, they needed to make another adjustment in their currency in the next two to five years (Lots, 2004).In addition to the above, another common point in the countries’ experience of successful implement of the monetary reform is to include this program in the policy package of financial stability. In other words, in most of these countries, a program for structural reform of the financial sector was pursued with the aim of achieving the conditions for the stabilization of which the monetary reform program was part of it. Economic policymakers in countries facing unwieldy inflation will have to make decisions for international funds, along with gaining confidence in the public opinion. The most direct tool for controlling inflation and achieving the above goals is to implement the economic stability program. The program is usually set up on the basis of the exchange rate or monetary approach, which the IMF also supports it through an agreement (Malekan, 2010). The currency redenomination program is very successful when implemented in a stable economic environment, falling inflation, stable exchange rates, financial discipline, and rational and prudent expectations of the credibility of economic stabilization policies (Ishi Kueen, 2007). 
     

    Methodology

    The specification of the research model has been done in the form of two probit and panel data models. The statistical population was used in the prime probit model is a sample of 29 countries that had the policy of reforming the national currency during periods 1921 to 2000, which is based on the data collected by Bernholz and Kugler (2006). In the panel data model, the data of 20 countries implementing the currency redenomination program during 1985 to 2013. The statistical sources used in this model are World Bank, WDI and IFS software.The below probit model is employed:Yi = f(D1i, D2i, D3i)  (1)In which, y as a dependent variable is the degree of success of the policy to change the monetary unit (zero elimination) in controlling inflation in the selected countries and includes values ​​0, 1 and 2 (value of 2 for the fully successful countries, value of 1 for relatively successful countries and zero for unsuccessful countries). D1 is a virtual variable for financing the state budget deficit, which is 1 if not financed by the state budget deficit through the issuance of the banknote, otherwise it will be zero. D2 is a virtual variable for the independence of the central bank, which is 1 if the central bank is independent in the country, and otherwise has a zero value. D3 is a virtual variable for the country's currency system, which is 1 for the fixed exchange rate system and otherwise it is zero.The below Panel Data model is employed:infi = f(dGDPi, dM2i, D1i, D1i D2i, D1i D3i, D1i D4i)  (2)where inf , the dependent variable of the model is indicative of the rate of inflation in the selected countries and extracted from the World Bank. dGDP is the real Gross Domestic Product growth rate (1985 base).  dM2 is the growth rate of liquidity, and is extracted from the World Bank. D1, the virtual variable is related to the elimination of zero of national currency, so that the value of this variable in the years when the zero removal policy in the target country has been implemented is equal to one and in the rest of the years is zero. D2, the virtual variable is the percentage of central bank independence in the studied countries.  D3, the virtual variable is related to the government financing through the issuance of a banknote, which issue the value 1 if the government finances, otherwise the value will be zero.  D4 , the virtual variable is related to the foreign exchange system of the country, which, if there is a fixed exchange rate system, is 1, and for other currencies (floating or floating) is zero.

    Results and Discussions

    Based on the results of the probit model estimation, it can be concluded that there is a positive and significant relationship between the degree of success of currency redenomination policy in controlling inflation and the way of financing the deficit of the state budget. There is an inverse and meaningless relationship between the independence of the central bank and the degree of success of currency redenomination policy in controlling inflation. There is a positive and significant relationship between the fixed currency system and the degree of success of currency redenomination policy.The results of the panel data model show that the currency redenomination policy has a positive effect on inflation and increases inflation. Also, the effect of currency redenomination policy despite the independence of the central bank in the studied countries is in accordance with expectations and has negative effect on inflation. Also, the implementation of currency redenomination policy in the case of government financing with the issuance of a banknote has a positive and significant relationship with inflation and has led to the failure of the policy. But the effect of implementing the currency redenomination policy despite the fixed exchange rate system in the studied countries has inverse and meaningless relation with inflation.
     

    Conclusions and Suggestions

    By summing up the results of the two models used in the research, it can be said that the independence of the central bank, the lack of financing by the government through the issuance of banknotes and the existence of a fixed exchange system in the country, are the infrastructure necessary to succeed implementing the policy of elimination Zeros from the national currency. Therefore, if such a policy is to be adopted in Iran, then there must first be established the policies for controlling inflation and appropriate infrastructures and then implement the policy.

    Keywords: Currency Reform, Independence of Central Bank, Credibly Fixed Exchange Rate, Controlling Inflation
  • Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh, Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour* Pages 73-94

    One of the main issues in macroeconomics is the study of the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates, the effects of these two variables have been considered by politicians and policy makers. Therefore, in this study due to the two-rate exchange rate in the Iranian economy, the two official exchange rate and the unofficial exchange rate is used. Also in this research of interest rates, one-year deposit interest rate short term and long term is five years, which will be announced by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this paper, the exchange rate during the period 1974-2014 was estimated with particle swarm optimization algorithm and genetic algorithm. And according to performance criteria, models with particle swarm optimization algorithm was selected to investigate the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The results show that the interest rate on short-term and long-term with official and unofficial exchange rates have indirect relationship. In fact, interest rates will increase the value of the national currency. Also in this study, the rate of money growth and gross domestic product on official and unofficial exchange rate is positive. In other words, by increasing the growth rate of money and gross domestic product, the value of the national currency decreases.

  • fereshteh jandaghi meybodi, Mohammad Ali falahi*, Mahdi feizi Pages 95-120

    The purpose of this study is to determine the preferences of the central bank of Iran and the optimal monetary policy rule using the optimal control method. so, we assumed that monetary authorities solving an optimization problem in backward looking expectation framework with regard to the constraints of the economic structure, which includes four equations of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, money demand and government expenditures. using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method (SUR), for the period of 1979-1397, the preferences of the monetary authorities that minimize the amount of Social welfare losses, were selected. The results indicate that the central bank should consider the deviation of monetary growth rate and then the output gap. Also, the optimal rule of monetary policy derived from the optimal preferences indicates that the central bank must react simultaneously to the changes in inflation, output gap, real exchange rates, government expenditure growth, oil and tax revenues growth.

  • masoumeh mohammadi, Esfandiyar malekiian* Pages 121-154

    Banking system is one of the most important economical sectors in a country that has the most connection with Macroeconomic sector and therefore any fluctuation and instability in it could affect the Macro economy of the country. Thus, studying the country’s banking industry performance and analyzing the Banking security is crucial. With respect to the performance of banking system at macro economy sectors of the country, any instability and crisis in it could cause fluctuation and disturbance in macro-economic variables, especially production sector. Therefore, emphasis on its financial mediating role, study and assurance of the banking system’s stability and security is of importance.In this research, first the most important financial relevance to CAMELS index, which according to the study of internal and external researches in the context of researches about financial security of banks and the usage from the experts point of view, have been collected and following that the effective factors on corporate governance index (as an effective factor on CAMELS index and banking security) were identified using the view of experts, which this has never been considered in any of the past researches. Finally, using fuzzy hierarchical analysis, total effective factors on CAMELS and corporate governance indices were ranked simultaneously. The results showed that five superior factors in banking security include choosing senior management by recruitment processes and considering the qualification required for senior management post, the existence of audit committee at bank, capital adequacy ratio, determining the strategy and policy of financial security of bank and organizational structure by board of directors, and non-current assets/assets ratio.

  • Arash Arianpoor*, Yahya Hassas Yeganeh, Jafar Babajani Pages 155-196

    Increasing demand for companies’ transparency and responsibility and its impact on society and stakeholders, lead in applying principals, rules and guidelines for companies to be used as a base for preparing their various reports. This paper is aimed at analyzing the Social sustainability Performance and its relationship with cost of equity for listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to achieve the main objective of the research, the 3-stage research was conducted. First, after studying literature of research and experts’ opinion, 26 indicators was determined using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Then, by reviewing the content of the financial statements and board of directors’ report for 134 companies, the reporting status of these indicators was reviewed during the years 2013-2017. Finally, after collecting data about 79 companies, the research hypothesis was tested using panel data.Findings show that “work procedures and performance” components are more satisfying than other components. However, the level of Social Sustainability Performance is lower in comparison to foreign studies. Also, contrary to theoretical literature of the research, Social Sustainability Performance has a positive impact on cost of equity which is due to stock price volatility, ignoring companies’ specifications ( such as management ability or employee skills) or the interactive influence of historical and future-based information.

  • Mahdi Bastan*, Sareh Akbarpour, Alimohammad Ahmadvand Pages 197-242

    Iranian banking system was considered as one of the most important pillars of financing and this is due to the unsuitable growth of the country's capital market, so the banks must satisfy the important role in the Iran economy. Iranian Banks as economic lifeline of county needs to have an appropriate business model for doing this act and reaching sustainable profitability power for its shareholders. For many Iranian banks earn money by customer’s deposits attraction with definite and certain interest rate and giving this resource to their other customers as a facilities and loans with specific and deterministic higher interest rate, But by seeing the banks financial documents and analysis of their financial performance indicators, this is clear that their business procedure was failed to provide profitability and value creation for its shareholders. Really linear and one-way approach to profitability was created a business procedure for them which they have learned to earn money only by credit operation by deposit attraction and giving high-interest rate loans and facilities. This method has a specific spread that called hagh-Al-Vekaleh in Islamic banking system. The main problem was originated from this approach. Implementation of this approach has some consequences and feedback effects which will increase risk weighted assets and then decreasing capital adequacy ratio and other financial indicators. Finally it was converged to share-value reduction. This is opposite of primary objective and called” Banking Paradox” in this research. It was used a holistic and system approach based methodology for finding the main causes of problems and prepare effectiveness solution for managing it, by presenting a mathematical model which provide scenario-making and simulation of decision and policies as scenario on model. By running what-if analysis, learning form system will occur. The results show that there are not any way to allude form this banking paradox, only by changing some important parameters such as deposit interest rate, loans interest rate, regulatory reserve ration and etc. only by shifting to new business model for banking that emphasize on fee incomes and avoid from interest incomes, they can reach to sustainable profitability which create value for shareholders.

  • Abdorreza Asadi* Pages 243-266

    The actions of managers to apply tax aggressive policies are increasing and companies continue to take the action as long as the costs of these policies are not overpowered the benefits. Present study investigates the relationship between ownership structure and tax aggressive policies. The sample firms includes 170 listed companies in Tehran stock Exchange over the years 2009-2014. The first three hypotheses are developed to test the relationship between components of ownership structure and tax policies, and forth hypothesis tests moderating role of firms’ performance. The results indicate significant negative relationship between public and institutional ownership and tax aggressive policies, whereas there is insignificant relationship between private ownership with tax aggressive policies. Moreover the result indicates that by increasing in institutional and public ownership, managers decrease tax aggressiveness but increase in private ownership do not affect managers’ aggressive policies. In the other hand the effect of ownership structure on tax policies in strong firms is highly take place.

  • zohreh eskandaripour, marzieh Esfandiari* Pages 267-292

    The main purpose of this paper is to study the degree of exchange rate fluctuation in import prices under environmental uncertainty conditions with an emphasis on dietary changes during the period 1962-1392. Therefore, the EGARCH model and the Markov rotational approach are used. The results of unstable modeling showed that negative and positive shocks are asymmetrically contributing to the formation of uncertainty in the variables of exchange rate, GDP and oil revenues. Based on the results of the Markov rotary model approach, the relationship between import price and its fundamental variables follows a two-mode pattern. Based on the results, the exchange rate, GDP, trade openness and the price of imported goods exported positively and significantly on the price of imported goods. The degree of exchange rate fluctuation in terms of environmental uncertainty in both regimes is more than one unit. The uncertainties of the fixed component increase the rate of exchange rate over the import price, and in addition, the slope of the exchange rate on import prices is also affected by environmental uncertainties. Meanwhile, the role of uncertainty of GDP in increasing the slope of the exchange rate is positive and is very high in relation to the effects of uncertainty in exchange rates and oil revenues.

  • abasali lotfi* Pages 293-312

    AbstractAgricultre is a risk activity. There are a number of natural Social economic and mandatory factors which create an uncertain environment for farmers . Governments design policies and programs for supporting farmers and agricultural producers . Revnue Insurance RI is a new program which deals with both price and yield risks . This paper has tried to review the theory of RI and then to compare RI with price and yeild insurance programs . using price and yeild data for wheat barley chickpea and onion in Fars . Hermanshah and East Azerbaijan and wheat inKhorasan Razavi provines for2005--2015 to test the possible application of RIit is showed that onion in East Azerbaijan chickpea in in Kermanshah and wheat in Fars and Khorasan Razavi are the best products for being consider in RIprogram . the Results also indicate that rain fed and irrigated onion chickpea wheat and barley are the most suitable products to apply RIprogram at national level .. ..

  • ali arshadi* Pages 313-335
    Introduction

    Payment system nowadays are encouraged to more toward electronic pay Payments, with low cost and high convenience for making Payments.Beside the Promoting of Policy towards e-payment, cash denomination should be considered and restructured cash denomination to be compatible with the real demand especially when there are various changes in circumstances such as e-payment usage, price level, and social performances.This paper examines optimal currency denomination structure from the cost and cash payment efficiency perspective, focusing on banknotes in Iran.The study proposes conceptual methodology together with empirical study and numerical analysis for Iran.

    Theoretical framework

    One of the tasks of central banks is to issue sufficient stock of banknotes and coins to respond the market demand. This also entails modernizing from time to time the banknotes’ security features. It seems that in the situation of absence of changes in the currency denomination structure in Iran. There is a need to analyses its denomination structure in terms of its correspondence with the prevailing economic conditions. Central banks worldwide not only perform a periodical review of banknotes’ security features in the face of ongoing advances in counterfeiting techniques: the central banks’ practice also involves the review of parameters determining the currency denomination structure, such as values of the lowest denomination coins and the highest denomination banknotes, the boundary between banknotes and coins and the number of denominations. All of them are analyzed in detail in this paper.An additional parameter should also be distinguished, namely the so-called spacing of denominations, which is analyzed, among others, by Wynne (1997), Van Hove (2001) and Tschoegl (2001). This parameter changed, for example, in  Netherlands as a result of the launch of the euro in 2002: the 1–2.5–5 system used in the case of the Dutch guilder was replaced with the 1–2–5 euro system. Iran currency already follows the 1–2–5 system and there is no need to deal with this problem.he decision about the modification of the denomination structure by the introduction new notes almost coincided with the debate about the rationality of keeping the highest denominations in circulation.To exemplify the emotions surrounding these debates, let us quote Charles Goodhart, who called the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank “shameless” for issuing “vastly high denomination notes”, namely the EUR 500 and CHF 1,000, “which are there to finance the drug deals.”2 Another example comes from The Washington Post, where Summers (2016), writing and citing a working paper by Sands (2016), extended the indictment to the USD 100 bill: “it too is used by criminals, so let’s get rid of it.”Less emotional and more matter-of-fact analyses of the issue can also be found. One of these is certainly the latest report of Europol (2015) entitled unambiguously Why is cash still king? Van Hove, Vuchelen (1996b) and Van Hove (2007) suggested that the ECB should place the upper limit of its banknote series at EUR 50 instead of EUR 500.Among opposite opinions were those voiced, among others, by Antti Heinonen, former head of the ECB’s Directorate, Banknotes, who said: “Clearly cash is used by criminals because it is an anonymous instrument. But to say that it would be more difficult to commit a crime if we didn’t have high denomination notes would be to confuse cause and effect. If we didn’t have the higher denominations, criminals would use the lower denominations – or other global currencies, such as the US dollar or Swiss franc.” (Atkins 2006).A reasonable stance in this matter was taken by, among others, Rogoff (2015), who besides the above-mentioned benefits of withdrawing cash, presented a set of arguments for its preservation:3Even though cashless payment instruments are proliferating and there is talk of the expected demise of cash, the latter is still widely used, The sharp rise in cash in circulation, especially over the last few years, makes it interesting to take a closer look at its most important characteristic – the denomination structure. In this study we analyses this structure with the use of the D-Metric model in the context of NBP’s recent decision to introduce the new banknote. A comparative analysis is also performed of the structure of the domestic currency with the structures observed in other countries. We show that the denomination structure of the Iran currency has been almost UN suitable to the prevailing economic conditions. The decision about the introduction of the new higher denomination note seems to be an element of adjusting the denomination structure to the conditions in Iran.

    Result and discussion

    In this study we analyses denomination structure in Iran by using the D-Metric model to introduce the new bank note. A comparative analysis is also performed of the structure of the domestic currency with the structures observed in other countries. We show that the denomination structure of IRAN isn't suitable and also the current denomination structure in Iran is not optimal. It’s necessary to say, one the most important factor that impact on the denominate structure in Iran is inflation. In fact because high inflation denomination continually is changing and the central bank can't have the same speed to coordinate the changes.The result also show that minimum 4 low denomination have been deleted from deal and IRAN need enter new denominations as bank note.5-

    Conclusion and suggestion

    This paper examines optimal currency denomination structure from the cost and cash payment efficiency perspective, focusing on banknotes.The study proposes conceptual methodology together with empirical study and numerical analysis for Iran. At the following some of the most important suggestion have been presented.Introducing a 20000 rial new banknote, because between denomination 10000 rial and 500000 rail is empty space and this issue will be resulted to impress on the 10000 rial domination and a side effect more cost for central bank.The 10000 rial banknote should be change from banknote to coin And a 10000 rial new coin and after that 20000 rial must be introduced. 3-the average time for introducing new denomination in IRAN is 10 year and this time should be shorter. The speed of this process depend on inflation rate.