فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 26 (پاییز 1397)

Economic sanctions with creating turmoil in the economy, raising prices and causing public discontent. On the other hand, the effect of sanctions depends on the economic structure of the target country, so that the worse the economic conditions of the target country, the more effective the sanctions will be. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to study the effects of sanctions on the level of prices and identify the factors that influence the severity of sanctions in the Iranian economy. Therefore, the purpose is to study the effects of sanctions on the level of prices and identify the factors that influence the severity of sanctions in the Iranian economy. For this purpose, time series data of consumer price index, oil-free GDP, value of imported goods, liquidity volume, informal market exchange rate during 1977-1996 were used. In order to estimate the impact of the sanctions, Index of sanction’s hazard extracted using the fuzzy AHP method in the first step. Then, in the second step, the effect of this index is estimated on the price level using a time-varying parameter approach that is highly capable of considering structural changes in time series. The empirical findings of the study indicate that sanctions have not had a significant effect on price levels until 1987, but that sanctions have increased prices in recent years. On the other hand, unfavorable conditions also exacerbate the effects of the price level sanctions, so that in recent years the most severe sanctions have been imposed on the Iranian economy, a large budget deficit, excessive dependence on the Oil revenues, high private sector debt ratios, and high inflation make the impact of sanctions on the price level increase by 106, 93, 60 and 31 percent, respectively.

In this paper we analyse the economic aspects of qarz-ul-hassana in compare with the conventional monetary system. Recent studies in this field mostly have followed a juriseprudence and legal approach. But this study follows a theoretical economic approach for explaining the economic consequences of conventional banking system. We show that this system by encouraging the social time preference and intreset rate, leads to unemployment, by credit creation leads to inflation, and by distorting the present and intertemporal allocation of resources leads to the increasing inequality. Then we argument that qarz-ul-hassana is the essential prerequisite and the complemantary of an interest-free society. Finally it is shown that the transition from conventional monetary system to an ideal system nessesitates a foundamental and essential changes in the conventional institution and regulation of national and international monetary system in a long term process.

he financial sector is one of the sectors that contributes to the expansion or decline of the underground economy. In particular, the financial sector performs many important functions in an economy, including providing credit for entrepreneurs and allowing them to monitor business transactions for tax purposes. In contrast, the occurrence of the underground economy can inhibit the development of the financial sector. Therefore, the authorities should look more closely at the interplay between these two indicators and consider their interactions in their policymaking and policymaking. With this in mind, this study attempts to examine the relationship between financial development and the underground economy in 34 selected countries, including Iran, from 1995 to 2015. The results show that all the error correction equations are negative and each part of the error is corrected to achieve long run equilibrium.

The aim of this paper is modeling the effectiveness and interaction effect of shocks on the supply of upstream, intermediate and downstream Oil and Gas Industries in the Iranian Economy, so 10% supply shocks were modeled based on partial hypothetical extraction. That way, the 6 sectors of oil and gas were measured. The main results of this study showed that the largest reduction of value-added (26%) was due to supply shock in petrochemicals. Also, the largest reduction of Iran's oil and gas industry has been observed due to the 10% supply shock in the sectors of "Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas", "Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains" and "Transport via pipeline". Respectively, down by 9.56 percent, 6.84 percent, and 5.79 percent.

One of the most important aspects of financial deregulation is the freedom to compete in interest rates. The experiences of banking crises around the world have shown that, in most cases, high interest rates on deposits Not only does not prove the banking effectivity, but also points to Ponzi's gameplay in the banking system. The process is like this: the banks lend to risky clients and then the loan will be defaulted. As a result, banks are forced to attract deposits and repay debts. This trend has emerged in the banking system of Iran and in particular in recent years. The question is that in the competition for the attraction of deposits, what is the relativity between interest rates offered by the high-risk Bank and Low-Risk Bank. This question was answered through modeling the behavior of banks and loan applicants in the form of a two-stage game in the context of information asymmetry and by postulating some feature of banking system of Iran. The result shows that the interest rate offered by the high-risk bank is higher than the interest rate risk of the low risk bank. so, unhealthy banks have a significant role in directing interest rates.

It has been a long time that selecting and optimizing strategies for financing and incrementing the income diversification of public universities is becoming challenging. The aim of this study is to prioritize optimal strategies for financial autonomy of public universities in Tehran with qualitative-quantitative approach. The methodology of the study is Descriptive-analytical in which the data from interviewing 20 expert in higher education was gathered and organized. The optimal strategies were obtained using SWOT technique. In the next step in order to determine the priority strategy in current situation of universities the TOPSIS technique is used. The findings illustrate six strategy for financial autonomy of universities. the “improving the research infrastructures” strategy with 0.63 closeness coefficient of each alternative is the first strategy and the second strategy which can lead the universities to gain more nonpublic revenue is “revenue diversification” with 0.61 closeness coefficient of each alternative. The prioritized strategies indicate that financial autonomy of begins from rethinking and managing the internal processes of universities.