فهرست مطالب

  • سال سی و سوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1398)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1398/12/25
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
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  • آذر هاشمی نژاد، عباس عبدشاهی*، منصور غنیان، بهمن خسروی پور صفحات 329-338

    یکی از مهم ترین زنجیره های غذایی کشور که نقش مهمی در امنیت غذایی جامعه دارد، زنجیره تامین نان می باشد. تولید گندم به عنوان حلقه آغازین این زنجیره نقش مهمی در بهبود عملکرد آن دارد. همچنین گندم یکی از محصولات استراتژیک کشور بوده است که از نظر ارزش غذایی، دارای اهمیت بسیار بالایی بوده و از مهم ترین و پرمصرف ترین محصولات کشاورزی می باشد. اما طی چند دهه گذشته از یک طرف به دلیل شرایط اقلیمی و خشک سالی های پیاپی و از طرف دیگر، به دلیل برخی سیاست ها، تولید این محصول با نوسانات و ریسک زیادی مواجهه شده که منجر به اختلالاتی در زنجیره تامین نان گردیده است. لذا این مطالعه به تحلیل عوامل موثر بر ریسک تولید گندم در زنجیره تامین نان پرداخته است. داده های مورد استفاده، مربوط به دوره زمانی 1393-1361 می باشد. برای شناسایی عوامل موثر بر ریسک تولید گندم، ابتدا با استفاده از یک مدل GARCH(2,0)، واریانس تولید گندم به عنوان معیار ریسک تعیین گردید. با توجه به انباشتگی متغیرها از مرتبه صفر و یک، از یک مدل ARDL برای شناسایی عوامل موثر بر ریسک استفاده گردید. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای جمعیت، واردات گندم، بارندگی و سطح زیرکشت در جهت مثبت و متغیرهای قیمت تضمینی و طرح محوری گندم در جهت منفی واریانس تولید گندم (ریسک تولید گندم) را متاثر می نمایند. لذا پیشنهاد می شود ضمن استمرار قیمت تضمینی گندم، از طرح هایی نظیر طرح محوری که موجبات کاهش ریسک تولید گندم را فراهم می آورند، حمایت به عمل آمده و در جهت بهبود سیاست هایی مثل واردات گندم یا تعیین بهینه سطح زیرکشت اقدام نمود. همچنین با توجه به انگیزه پایین بخش خصوصی برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، بایستی دولت با افزایش سهم خود در پرداخت حق بیمه و همچنین اعطای خسارت، موجبات تمایل بیشتر گندم کاران به بیمه محصول را فراهم نماید.

    کلیدواژگان: امنیت غذایی، تولید گندم، ریسک، زنجیره تامین
  • حنانه آقاصفری، علیرضا کرباسی*، حسین محمدی، رابرتو کلیستی صفحات 339-350

    افزایش آگاهی عمومی نسبت به اثرات سوء استفاده از نهاده های شیمیایی موجب شده است که مصرف کنندگان گرایش فزاینده به محصولات کشاورزی ارگانیک پیدا کنند. بالا بودن قیمت تمام شده این محصولات، اهمیت بررسی ترجیحات پرداختی مصرف کنندگان را به منظور توسعه کشت آن روشن می سازد. از این رو، این مطالعه تلاش می کند تا مولفه های موثر بر ترجیحات پرداختی مصرف کنندگان را برای محصولات ارگانیک با بهره گیری از مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری شناسایی و مورد بررسی قرار دهد. داده های مطالعه با جمع آوری 142 پرسشنامه از بازدیدکنندگان نمایشگاه محصولات ارگانیک مشهد با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده در اسفند ماه سال 1396 به دست آمده اند. نتایج مطالعه بیانگر آن است که آگاهی و دانش مصرف کنندگان، مشخصات فردی و نگرش مثبت نسبت به ویژگی های محصولات ارگانیک به ترتیب به میزان 27/0، 59/0 و 21/0 بر ترجیحات پرداختی مصرف کنندگان در جهت مثبت اثرگذار است. همچنین عوامل بازاریابی به طور غیر مستقیم از طریق اثرگذاری به میزان 68/0 بر نگرش نسبت به ویژگی های محصولات ارگانیک، بر ترجیحات پرداختی مصرف کنندگان موثر است. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده، توصیه شده است که سیاست گذاران نسبت به اطلاع رسانی و آگاهی بخشی منافع محصولات ارگانیک اقدام جدی تری داشته باشند.

    کلیدواژگان: ترجیحات پرداختی، محصولات کشاورزی ارگانیک، مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری
  • محمدحسین کریم*، امیر دادرس مقدم، سیدمهدی حسینی، سیدمحسن سیدان صفحات 351-361

    عمده اقتصاد در نواحی روستایی استان خراسان جنوبی بر کاشت و فروش سه محصول مقاوم به کم آبی و خشکی و در عین حال با ارزش اقتصادی بالا یعنی زرشک، زعفران و عناب استوار می باشد. در حدود 98 و 96 درصد تولید زرشک و عناب کشور در این استان انجام می گیرد و مخاطرات طبیعی بی شماری این محصولات استراتژیک را تهدید می کند. این پژوهش به بررسی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر مدیریت ریسک تولید این دو محصول در استان خراسان جنوبی می پردازد. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر شامل کشاورزان استان خراسان جنوبی می باشند. برای جمع آوری داده ها از ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. داده ها و اطلاعات با روش نمونه گیری تصادفی از 145 و 130 تولیدکننده زرشک و عناب در سال 1397 جمع آوری شده است. روایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از نظرات اساتید و کارشناسان مورد تائید قرار گرفت و پایایی آن نیز از طریق آزمون آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه گردید که مقدار آن برای بخش های مختلف پرسشنامه بالاتر از 71/0 به دست آمد که نشان از قابلیت پایایی پرسشنامه دارد. در تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از توابع خطی و با ضرایب بدست آمده از الگوریتم تقریب تابع ژنتیک به پیش بینی سهم عوامل موثر بر آگاهی از مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان زرشک و عناب پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان داد کمترین اثر بر شاخص مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان زرشک مربوط به خطر سرمازدگی محصول است. بیشترین درجه تاثیرگذاری را آگاهی از خطر تگرگ بر شاخص مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان عناب در منطقه خراسان جنوبی داشته است. لذا پیشنهاد می شود نظام ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی و هواشناسی کشاورزی برای بهبود دانش مدیریت ریسک و مهارت های کشاورزان منطقه خراسان جنوبی، با ارائه برنامه های آموزشی مناسب پیش آگاهی های لازم را در مواجه با خطرات (خشکسالی، سرمازدگی، سیل، طوفان، بارندگی های ناگهانی و...) برای باغداران ترسیم نمایند.

    کلیدواژگان: الگوریتم تقریب تابع ژنتیک، خراسان جنوبی، زرشک، عناب، مدیریت ریسک
  • مصطفی زندی نسب، محمد غفاری*، فاطمه خادم شاهزاده طاهر صفحات 363-376

    محصولات ارگانیک کشاورزی با توجه به شرایط تولید خود که مستلزم عدم استفاده از مواد شیمیایی و مصنوعی می باشد، دارای هزینه تولید بیشتری است. در صورتی که مصرف کنندگان تمایل به پرداخت بیشتر برای این محصولات داشته باشند، توسعه محصولات ارگانیک کشاورزی می تواند رونق بگیرد. از این رو، در پژوهش حاضر به شناسایی و اولویت بندی عوامل موثر بر تمایل به پرداخت در محصولات ارگانیک کشاورزی از دیدگاه مصرف کنندگان پرداخته شد. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش پژوهش، توصیفی-پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل کلیه مصرف کنندگان محصولات ارگانیک کشاورزی فروشگاه های بیونشان در شهر تهران بوده است که در دوره جمع آوری داده های پژوهش در آبان سال 1397 از محصولات این شرکت استفاده کرده اند. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده های پژوهش و استخراج عوامل از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی و اولویت بندی آن از آنتروپی شانون استفاده شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که عوامل موثر بر تمایل به پرداخت در محصولات ارگانیک کشاورزی شامل کیفیت محصولات، مزایای ادراک شده، سطح درآمد، موانع اطلاعاتی و دسترسی به محصولات، نگرانی های زیست محیطی، سبک زندگی و ایمنی مواد غذایی است. از نظر پاسخ دهندگان ایمنی مواد غذایی در رتبه اول اهمیت قرار دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: تمایل به پرداخت، رفتار مصرف کننده، کشاورزی، محصولات ارگانیک
  • مرضیه رونقی، محمدرضا کهنسال*، محمد قربانی صفحات 377-394

    حکمرانی خوب برای کشاورزی به معنی فراهم آوردن خدمات بهتر با مشارکت دولت، جامعه مدنی و بخش خصوصی برای کشاورزان است. حکمرانی کشاورزی شامل نهادهایی است که در آن کشاورزان در مورد منافع خود صحبت می کنند، حقوق قانونی خود را اعمال می کنند، تعهدات خود را برآورده می کنند و در زمان اختلاف میان آن ها میانجی گری می شود. در این تحقیق، تاثیر ضریب تغییر متغیرهای منتخب حکمرانی کشاورزی (دامداری) در برنامه های توسعه کشور بر بازار گوشت با استفاده از مدل جابجایی تعادل 4(EDM) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. عوامل قیمت و مقدار برای مرغ، گاو و گوسفند و هم چنین مازاد عرضه کننده تحت سناریوهای مختلف در برنامه پنجم و ششم توسعه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل اشتغال کشاورزی و شرکت های تعاونی بیشترین اهمیت را در حوزه سیاسی، اجتماعی و محیطی دارند و عوامل افزایش تولید و سرمایه گذاری در حوزه اقتصادی بیشترین رتبه و اهمیت را دارند. مطابق با یافته های پژوهش، از جمله توصیه های سیاستی این است که حکمرانی خوب باید منافع کشاورزی را در حوزه های مختلف از طریق اجماع و مشارکت عمومی با کشاورزان تامین کند. دست یابی به توافق جامع نیازمند نمایندگان منتخب، متخصصان متفکر و کشاورزان نوآور با دیدگاه وسیع و بلندمدت در زمینه حکمرانی خوب و داشتن درک درست از رشد و توسعه کشاورزی است.

    کلیدواژگان: حکمرانی کشاورزی، مشارکت گروهی، بازار گوشت، مدل جابجایی تعادل
  • فرزانه صالحی رضا آبادی، ماشاالله سالارپور، مصطفی مردانی نجف‎ آبادی*، سامان ضیایی صفحات 395-412

    در مطالعه ی حاضر به تحلیل اقتصادی اثرات تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب در قالب سناریوهای مختلف بر مفاهیمی همچون عملکرد، الگوی کشت، بهره وری آب و سود ناخالص کشاورزان در سال 97-1396 در شهرستان های عمده استان کرمان شامل رفسنجان، سیرجان، کرمان، انار، زرند و بردسیر پرداخته شده است. در این راستا، اثر افزایش شوری خاک بر عملکرد محصولات مختلف و اثر همزمان تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب بر سایر شاخص های ذکر شده با لحاظ تابع تولید محصول-آب-شوری در الگوی برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت انجام شده است. نتایج اعمال سناریوی افزایش یک واحد شوری خاک نشان داد که بیشترین کاهش عملکرد مربوط به محصولات کلزا و سیب زمینی به ترتیب 13 و 12 درصد و کمترین میزان کاهش عملکرد مربوط به محصولات پسته و جو به میزان 5 درصد است. کمترین و بیشترین میزان کاهش سطح زیر کشت در اثر کاهش کیفیت و کمیت منابع آب نیز به ترتیب مربوط به مناطق کرمان و رفسنجان است. همچنین، برای تمامی مناطق، افزایش یک واحد شوری بیشترین تاثیر منفی بر بهره وری اقتصادی مصرف آب دارد. افزون براین، کاهش کیفیت منابع آب ناشی از افزایش شوری، پسته کاران را در جهت کشت کمتر محصول پسته ترغیب کرده که این امر باعث کاهش بازده برنامه ای آن ها می شود. با توجه به اثرات منفی کاهش کیفیت و کمیت منابع آب بر بهره وری اقتصادی و مدیریت منابع آب به خصوص در منطقه پسته خیز رفسنجان لزوم توجه به ابزارهای بهبود بهره وری اقتصادی از جمله استفاده از سامانه های نوین آبیاری و یا راهکارهای اصلاح الگوی کشت و بیمه محصولات در جهت بهبود بازده برنامه ای می تواند موثر واقع شود.

    کلیدواژگان: الگوی برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت، بازده برنامه ای، بهره وری آب، تابع تولید محصول-آب-شوری، کیفیت آب
  • معصومه عربشاهی، امیر غفوریان شاگردی*، ریحانه نیکوئی، امید بهبودی صفحات 413-426

    توجه به حفظ محیط زیست امری لازم است و عدم توجه، موجب بروز خسران به انسان ها و محیط می گردد. تفکر خرید محصولات سبز، موجب شده تا مردم در مورد نوع محصولاتی که خریداری می نمایند، بازنگری نموده و محصولاتی را انتخاب کنند که به محیط زیست آسیب کمتری برساند. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی تاثیر نشانگرهای حسی بر تمایل به خرید مشتریان با نقش میانجی اخلاق مداری برند از دیدگاه مصرف کننده (مورد مطالعه: مشتریان محصولات ارگانیک نفس) در شهر مشهد بوده است. این پژوهش از حیث هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت توصیفی - پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش کلیه مشتریان و مصرف کنندگان محصولات ارگانیک نفس که به شعبه های عرضه محصولات در شهر مشهد مراجعه کرده اند، می باشد. نمونه آماری براساس قاعده 5-10 برابر تعداد گویه ها (براساس نرم افزار پی ال اس)، 192 نفر مشخص شد که پرسشنامه ها به روش نمونه گیری غیرتصادفی در دسترس بین آنان توزیع گردید. روایی محتوای پرسشنامه به تایید جمعی از اساتید و خبرگان رسید و جهت سنجش پایایی پرسشنامه ها از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد که مقدار آن 825/0 برآورد گردید و تایید شد. تحلیل داده ها با نرم افزار PLS3 و شاخص GOF، 468/0 انجام شد. نتایج حاکی از تاثیر مثبت اخلاق مداری برند بر تمایل به خرید مشتریان می باشد و اخلاق مداری برند نقش مثبت و میانجی بر تاثیرگذاری نشانگرهای حسی بر تمایل به خرید مشتریان داشت. اما تاثیر نشانگر حسی دیداری برتمایل به خرید مشتریان محصولات ارگانیک نفس رد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: اخلاق مداری برند از دیدگاه مصرف کننده، تمایل به خرید محصولات ارگانیک، نشانگر های حسی
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  • Azar Hashemi Nejad, abas abdeshahi*, Mansour Ghanian, Bahman Khosravipour Pages 329-338
    Introduction

    One of the most important challenges facing the world is how to feed expected population by 2050. Despite trying to increase food production over the past half-century, food security has been a strategic issue and an important goal of agricultural policies in many countries by challenges including population grow, increasing demand, natural resources erosion, etc. One of the critical dimensions in achieving food security is expanding food supply chain. A food supply chain can be defined as a set of interdependent components include of input supply, production, storage, processing, marketing, distribution and consumption or as the activities from ‘farm to fork’. Bread supply chain in Iran, is one of the most important food supply chain because bread is considered as the most important food source and is staple food of choice, so it has a special place in household’s nutrition pattern that supply 46.2% and 59.3% of energy for urban and rural people. Also, wheat is the raw material of bread and one of the strategic and critical crops in Iran agriculture. More than 80% of wheat consumption in Iran is predominantly used for bread. Wheat is the staple food of the national diet of Iranian households, who draw, on average, 47% of their daily calorie from wheat products. Although the population of Iran is nearly 1% of world population, it consumes roughly 2.5% of wheat produced worldwide. But, wheat is exposed to different kinds of risks such as natural disasters, including environmental concerns and climate change, pests and diseases, market vacillations and government policy that affect bread supply chain performance. So, the objective of this study is to explore factors affecting wheat production risk in bread supply chain.

    Materials and Methods

    In this study regression analysis was used to determine the effects of variables on wheat production risk. The used data was time series for  wheat production, wheat guarantee price, harvested area, rainfall, temperature, wheat axial plan, seed consumption, wheat import and export variables during 1982-2014. In order to explore factors affecting wheat production risk, at first wheat production variance as the risk criterion was estimated by ARCH (2) Model. The used data in the study was time series and therefore applying Ordinary Least Squares method in estimating regression equation would lead to pseudo regression. Since based on Augmented Dicky-Fuller method, variables were combination of I (0) and I (1), therefore Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model has been used to determine short run and long run relationship.

    Results and Discussion

    Results revealed that wheat production risk was affected by population, wheat imports, rainfall, wheat guaranteed prices, harvested area and wheat axial plan variables which population, import, rainfall, harvested area had a positive effect and guaranteed price and wheat axle plan had a negative effect on wheat production risk. Therefore increasing population growth, import, rainfall and harvested area would lead to risk increase while increasing price and the implementation of wheat axis plan would reduce wheat production risk. So, increasing population and consumption, have also increased wheat import in recent years. While wheat import have reduced domestic production and farmers' incentives that would lead to increased wheat production risk. The tools used by governments for increasing domestic production against wheat import and increasing producer’s incentives are guaranteed price and wheat axial plan. Another effective cause of wheat production risk was climate changes and extreme weather events. Farmers’ economic profit was influenced severely and even determined by climate changes and weather events. Also, during this period, wheat harvested area had nearly doubled. This growing trend has also increased the risk of wheat production.

    Conclusion

    wheat is a strategic crops in Iran. So, it is necessary to reduce its production risk. Wheat production risk was reduced by applying weather-based crop insurance scheme, sustaining the guaranteed price of wheat, supporting plans such as wheat axial plan, improving policies such as wheat imports and optimizing harvested area.

    Keywords: Food security, Supply chain, Risk, Wheat production
  • Hanane Aghasafari, Alireza Karbasi*, Hosein Mohammadi, R. Calisti Pages 339-350
    Introduction

    The environmental impacts of pesticides, genetically modified organisms and other chemicals used to increase agricultural production have raised consumers' concerns about the quality and safety of agricultural products. And now, with the increase of environmental awareness, it has criticized modern agricultural activities. These factors have encouraged consumers to consume organic agricultural products. Way of producing the organic products can increase the production costs and, finally, increase the total price of these products. So, consumers should pay more for these products than the inorganic ones. In spite of higher prices of these products, consumers are increasingly tending to consume organic products. So that, consumers tend to pay more for better and more organic and safe agricultural products. Several factors influence the consumer payment preferences for organic products. In this study, these factors are classified into four groups and their impacts on consumer preferences are examined.

    Materials and Methods

    This study has used the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a powerful collection of multivariate analysis techniques, which specifies the relationships between variables through the use of two main sets of models: Measurement model and Structural model. Measurement model tests the accuracy of proposed measurements by assessing relationships between latent variables and their respective indicators. The structural model drives the assessment of the hypothesized relationships between the latent variables, which allow testing the statistical hypotheses for the study. Additionally, SEM considers the modeling of interactions, nonlinearities, correlated independents, measurement error, correlated error terms, and multiple latent independents that each one is measured by multiple indicators. Unlike conventional analysis, SEM allows the inclusion of latent variables into the analysis and it is not limited to relationships among observed variables and constructs. It allows the study to measure any combination of relationships by examining a series of dependent relationships simultaneously while considering potential errors of measurement among all variables. SEM has several advantages over conventional analysis, including greater flexibility regarding assumptions (particularly allowing interpretation even in the face of multicollinearity). SEM allows the use of confirmatory factor analysis to reduce measurement error by testing multiple indicators per latent variable while offering superior model visualization through its graphical modeling interface. Structural Equation Modeling include six steps (data collection, model specification, identification, estimation, evaluation and modification). In the present study, the variables including marketing factors, awareness and knowledge, demographic characteristics and attitudes towards organic products are considered as latent variables that the relationship of these variables with the payment preferences is investigated. In order to collect required data, a researcher-made questionnaire and simple random sampling method has been used.

    Results and Discussion

    Results indicate that given the significance of factor loadings, the indicators (observed variables) such as packaging, brand, advertising, discounts and shopping incentives, familiarity with different types of products, way to get information, familiarity with organic agricultural product stores have the required accuracy to measure latent variables. Regarding the model fitting indexes and being model values in the acceptable range, we can say that the measurement and structural models fit well with the data. The results of structural model and hypothesis testing show that awareness and knowledge, demographic characteristics, attitude towards organic products have a significant effect (0.27, 0.59 and 0.21, respectively) on consumer payments preferences. In other words, increasing the awareness of consumer about organic products, increasing household size and income, the positive attitude of consumers towards the characteristics of organic products would increase consumer payments preferences. Also, marketing factors have a significant effect (0.68) on the attitude toward organic products. So that, marketing factors including packaging, brand, advertising and discounts and shopping incentives have a positive effect on the attitude toward organic products. Therefore, hypotheses 2 through 5 are supported.

    Conclusion

    The Findings indicate that increasing the awareness of consumer about organic agricultural products, increasing household size and income, the positive attitude of consumers towards the characteristics of organic agricultural products will increase consumer payments preferences. Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant authorities take serious action to inform about the properties and nutritional value of organic agricultural products, the differences in the labels of food products, and the existing stores supplying of organic products. Also, it is recommended that the numbers of organic supply stores are boosted, especially in areas where high-income people live.

    Keywords: Organic agricultural products, Payment preferences, Structural Equation Modeling
  • Mohammad Hossein Karim*, Amir Dadrasmoghadam, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen Seyedan Pages 351-361

    Introduction and

    Aim

    Agriculture is a risky occupation. The different natural, social, and economic hazards have created handicaps and problems for agricultural producers, which result in the instability of income for producers. In general, the nature and environment of agricultural activities are at high risk. The risks of agricultural activities are often associated with low performance, increased cost, and time lag. In order to from the perspective of risk management, studies can be categorized into three types including product hazards, price risks, and natural hazards. Major economies in the rural areas of south Khorasan province is based on the planting and selling three products of barberry, saffron and jujube, which are resistant to water deficit and drought, and at the same time all have the high economic value. This province in Iran accounts for about 96 to 98% of the barberry and jujube production. Therefore, this study aims to examine the factors affecting the barberry and jujube production in the South Khorasan province, Iran. .

    Materials and Methods

    Genetic function approximation (GFA) algorithm describes the basic problem of approximating the function. Many factors affect the response variable and primary input correlated with best response. The GFA algorithm works with a range of strings called population, developed for the purpose of searching.  The selection, crossover, and mutation operators also run appropriately. New members were given scores according to the estimator’s criteria. In the GFA, the criteria scoring is obtained for fitted regression models. The selection probabilities should add each new member to the population again. This method continued for a specified number of generations until the point of convergence. GFA algorithm can be used to produce a generation with respect to the evolution charts according to the achieved time. This graph shows the number of events for each variable about the population, which has evolved for each generation. GFA algorithm converges as no progress in population occurred. At this time, the model is significant which means the best choice for all models of population. Using GFA and MS modeling software, modeling is used to identify the factors affecting the knowledge of barberry and jujube producers in order to determine which one of 15 independent variables were effective on the risk management information of barberry and juvenile producers in South Khorasan province.

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that frostbite risk had the lowest risk, affecting the risk index of barberry producers. Awareness of hail hazards exerted the greatest effect on the risk index of jujube producers in south Khorasan region. The least effective factor was the awareness of fire hazards in the jujube gardens.

    Conclusion

    The results suggest that most jujube and barberry producers use traditional knowledge and experience and do not acquire the necessary training that are needed for dealing with natural hazards due to poor knowledge and non-compliance with the principles of agricultural education in dealing with hazards. Therefore, it is recommended  that the system of agricultural extension and education and agricultural meteorology must have been improved the knowledge of the farmers' risk management and skills in the southern Khorasan region by presenting appropriate training programs to address these risks (drought, , storm, sudden precipitation, etc.). Accordingly, the information and promotion system, accompanied with appropriate training in relation to new innovations, will increase the awareness among the male and female producers and government support should be taken in this area.  So producers can use modern methods for better managing natural hazards in the Jujube and Barberry gardens of South Khorasan province.

    Keywords: Barberry, Genetic function approximation algorithm, Jujube, Risk management, South Khorasan province
  • M. Zandi Nasab, M. Ghaffari *, F. Khadem Shahzadeh Taher Pages 363-376
    Introduction

    With increasing population, agricultural activities should provide enough food for 80 billion people around the world until 2030. Many farmers are dependent on chemical technologies for pest management and producing enough food. However, despite the many benefits, it is indicated that, chemicals and pesticides, may have bad consequences for the health of human being and environment. Hence, due to the response to concerns about common agricultural activities, the interest in organic products has been increased around the world. Increasing health problems and diseases associated with food products has made consumers to give more importance to buying these products. One of the people's reactions has been moving forward to using organic agricultural products. Many researchers, have proved that, organic products, are safer and better for people's health and unhealthy products are a threat for society. For instance, in developing countries, 5 million children under age of 5 are afflicted to illness symptoms caused by poisonous and chemical residues in food, and more than 3 million people die and in 2010 the World Health Organization has declared that; Iran, ranked 93rd out of 160 countries in the world for bad consequences of agriculture. Organic products have characteristics such as taste, health, and issues related to environment and animals' right, which are not tangible in the first sight. In some cases, when consuming or buying, consumers hardly understand these features. For success and development of organic products these features should be understood by consumers and they should be willing to pay for these products. Organic agricultural products have higher prices for several reasons (such as production conditions and issuing the certificate). Economically, the value of a product is equal to the sum of payments for that product, in addition to the consumers' welfare. Surplus consumer welfare is defined as the difference between the consumer's willingness to pay and the real price paid for it. In this regard the notion of willingness to pay can be defined as the total payment that reflects the difference between the surplus consumer welfare before and after adding or improving one characteristic of food. Many consumers are looking for food safety and they have tendency to pay more for healthy food products, because it simultaneously increases the level of utility and reduces the risks for health. A review of research literature on willingness to pay for organic agricultural products shows that most studies have been conditional on the costs of organic agricultural products and estimation of willingness to pay for them by methods such as valuation and less attention have been paid to the reasons that make consumers to pay for these products. Hence, it seems that an exploratory study for identifying and prioritizing factors affecting the willingness to pay for organic agricultural products has a great importance. Therefore, the purpose of present study is identification and prioritization of factors affecting the willingness to pay for organic agricultural products.

    Materials and Methods

    This research in terms of purpose is applied and in terms of research method, is descriptive-survey. The statistical population of the study included all consumers of organic agricultural products of Bioneshan shops in Tehran, who have been using these products at the time of collecting the research data on November 2018. To determine the sample size, Comrey and Lee patterns were used, and 384 samples were selected by sampling method. Analyzing the research data was done by SPSS and EXCEL software.

    Results and Discussion

    Before conducting an exploratory factor analysis, in order to identify factors affecting willingness to pay for organic agricultural products, and in order to ensure that existing data can be used and the number of data is appropriate for factor analysis and the adequacy of exploratory Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin sample size, Bartlett test was used. In the next step, for exploratory factor analysis, research data were analyzed by using main components analysis method and the choice of varimax rotation method. The results of exploratory factor analysis show that, factors affecting willingness to pay for organic agricultural products consist of seven elements or dimensions. These include the quality of products, perceived benefits, income levels, information barriers and access to products, environmental concerns, life styles and food safety. These seven identified factors totally define 68/123% variance of affecting factors on willingness to pay for organic agricultural products. In order to prioritize the factors affecting the willingness to pay for organic agricultural products Shannon entropy was used. According to respondents, food safety is ranked first in terms of its importance.

    Conclusion

    The first identified factor is the quality of the products which corresponds with the studies of Krystallis and Chryssohoidis (2005) and Villanueva and colleagues (2015). One of the factors that causes the consumer to focus on a product, is the quality of that product. Organic agricultural products are not exceptions to this fact and more than being organic, their quality should be considered as well. The fact that products should be both organic and have a high quality, is difficult due to the lack of chemical and artificial compounds. The second identified factor is perceived benefits, which correspond with the studies of Van doorn and verhoef (2011) and Zaho and colleagues (2018). Consumers consider some benefits for themselves of using each product. In order to enhance the willingness to pay for organic agricultural products, People who are active in agricultural activities, should try to increase the level of perceived benefits in consumers. The third identified factor is income level which corresponds with the studies of Nandy and colleagues (2017) and Vapa-Tankosic and colleagues (2018). One of the obstacles to the expansion of organic agricultural products is people's low income level and higher prices of organic agricultural products. The forth identified factor is information barriers and access to products which corresponds with the studies of Nandy and colleagues (2017) and Sriwaranun and colleagues (2015). Lack of information about organic agricultural products and inadequate supply and availability affects the willingness to pay for them. By increasing information about the benefits of these products the interest in paying for these products will be increased. So when the supply and access to these products can easily happen, and people have access to these products in different stores, the desire to use and pay for this products increases and with increasing supply, the price of these products reduces. The fifth identified factor is environmental concerns, which corresponds to the studies of Nandy and colleagues (2017) and konuk and colleagues (2018). Many people by understanding that organic agricultural products entail less harm to the living environment, are satisfied with paying more for these products. The sixth identified factor is lifestyle, which corresponds to the studies of Skreli and colleague (2017). People who primarily establish a healthy lifestyle for themselves, and care about their health more, have willing to pay for organic agricultural products as a healthy product. The seventh identified factor is food safety which corresponds with the studies of Budak and colleagues (2006) and Chen and colleagues (2015). According to food respondents, food safety has the top priority. Consumers should be certain about the organic state of the products and their health in order to have desire to pay for them.

    Keywords: Agricultural, Consumer Behavior, Organic Products, Willingness to Pay
  • M. Ronaghi, M.R. Kohansal*, M. Ghorbani Pages 377-394
    Introduction

    Governance is the way rules, norms and actions are structured, sustained, regulated and held accountable in a society. Works by the World Bank and other multilateral development banks on good governance addresses economic institutions and public sector management, including transparency and accountability, regulatory reform, and public sector skills and leadership. Governance has political, economic, and administrative dimensions. It is particularly relevant to agriculture. For agriculture, political governance is the process of decision-making to formulate agricultural policy whereas economic governance emphasizes decision-making processes that affect economic activities and their relationships with the agricultural economy. Administrative governance deals with the implementation of policy. In most developing countries, the government tries to improve the agriculture and guarantee livelihoods via consultation with farmers’ organizations, NGOs, civil society, development economists, the private sector, and coordinate between the legal, economic and social systems, and institutions of governance (Stead 2015). Good governance for agriculture encourages better services by “bringing government closer to farmers”. Iran faces challenges in all of the World Bank's defined governance indicators (transparency and accountability, political stability, violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption control). They used an indicator of governance from the World Bank which varies from -2.5 (the weakest) to 2.5 (the strongest). All governance indicators were negative for Iran, suggesting much room for improvement. Better governance would reduce internal and external barriers of development and improve the management of domestic resources by creating a more transparent regulatory structure. These changes could lead to faster growth in Iran’s agricultural sector. Meat plays a significant role in providing protein and calories for the Iranian population. Fluctuations in meat supply and demand affect people's food consumption patterns. Meat prices have been particularly volatile in recent years. The government is obliged to support increased production of animal protein (livestock and poultry) and they can accomplish this by improving agricultural (livestock) governance. Therefore, we investigate the role of governance in improving agricultural and livestock farming performance in this research.

    Materials and Methods

    After selecting the agricultural governance variables, we investigate the impact of agricultural governance variables on Iran’s livestock and meat market. An Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM) is used to evaluate the effects of agricultural governance variables on producers and consumers of meat. The EDM model determines the effects of agricultural governance variables on price and quantity of livestock products by shifting the supply and demand functions before and after the implementation of agricultural governance variables with different scenarios. This is the first study to measure the impact of agricultural governance on vertical and horizontal meat markets by using an EDM. In order to assess the impact of agricultural governance on the livestock and meat markets, we consider the horizontal markets among cattle, chicken, and sheep, as well as vertical markets within each species, including the farm and retail markets. The specification of an EDM includes the percentage change in the price and quantity of each species (beef, chicken and mutton) in retail markets and farm markets.

    Results and Discussion

    The results of percentage change in the price (EP) and quantity (EQ) for the retail and farm level meat market after applying the agricultural governance variables of the Fifth Development Program are shown in Table (4) for 2018. After increasing agricultural governance in the meat market, the percentage change in price (EP) for beef, chicken and mutton are negative at the retail and farm level, and the percentage change of quantity (EQ) are positive at the retail and farm level. These results show the positive effect of implementing agricultural governance. Also, the results showed that annual investment growth at 2.23% has a larger effect on quantities at the farm level for chicken, beef and mutton. Growth in  cooperative expenditures (and production inputs) of 0.11% per year has a larger effect on retail prices for chicken; while the 0.21% annual growth of employment has smaller effects on retail prices for chicken. In addition, the annual investment growth variable has the largest effect among governance variables on the total surplus of meat producers.

    Conclusion

    According to the research findings, the investment variable has the largest impact on price. By increasing investment in the livestock sector, it is possible to use not only modern technology and equipment on livestock farms, but also to employ experts and skilled labor in the production process. Employing university graduates in the areas of farm management, nutrition, livestock and poultry production, animal health, and other technical areas could bring huge profits to producers. In addition, cooperatives play an important role in the marketing. When cooperatives enter the supply chain, there are improvements in input supply, assembly, processing, and product distribution.

    Keywords: Agricultural governance, Group participation, Meat Market, Equilibrium displacement model
  • F. Salehi Rezaabad, M. Salarpour, M. Mardani Najafabadi*, S. Ziaei Pages 395-412
    Introduction

    Excessive extraction and depletion of groundwater aquifers and critical water status in more than 120 plains of the country have resulted in decreased water quality. In addition, the productivity of agricultural water of Iran in different years is on average lower than other countries. The results of most salinity studies show that high concentrations of salt in soil solution have significantly reduced the yield of crops and horticultural products in the country. More profitability and high market value of pistachio crops in comparison with other crops has led to many efforts by Kerman farmers to develop pistachio groves. Various studies show that over- extraction of groundwater resources in Kerman province and decreasing water quality of wells and consequently increasing salinity has reduced root growth and crop yield. In the present study, economic analysis of the effects of quantitative and qualitative changes of water in different scenarios on concepts such as yield, cropping pattern, water consumption and productivity and gross profit of farmers in major county of Kerman province has been investigated.

    Materials and Methods

    To achieve the goals of present study, we first obtained the salinity-water-yield function for each product. Then, by regarding this function in the positive mathematical programming model, the effect of different scenarios including changing water salinity level and changing water supply, on factors such as water productivity, crop yield, cropping pattern and gross profit of farmers especially pistachio growers are analyzed and investigated. In this regard, scenarios of 15% reduction of available water resources in different regions and increase of one salinity unit individually in combination with the above mentioned indicators are evaluated by conducting positive mathematical programming model and are identified by studied areas.

    Results and Discussion

    Investigation of the data reveals that discharge of aquifers is higher for recharge in all studied areas and consequently reduction of groundwater level has occurred. The result shows that the yield sensitivity of pistachio and barley crops to one unit soil salinity is lower than other crops. However, the highest yield loss as a result of increasing one unit in soil salinity as a scenario for canola and potato crops is 13 and 12 percent, respectively. Due to the decrease in quality and quantity of water resources, the total area under cultivation has decreased, with the lowest and highest reduction being in Kerman and Rafsanjan County, respectively. The results show that the scenario of 15% reduction in available water resources would just increases the area of Bardsir and leads to a decrease in one cubic meter economic productivity for other areas. On the other hand, by applying all three scenarios including decrease in quantity and quality of water resources, gross margin and water use will be reduced due to the decrease in the cultivated area of high yield and water based crops such as alfalfa and pistachio in Kerman region. Also, the results indicate that for all studied areas, increase in salinity by one unit has the most negative effect on economic productivity of one cubic meter of water consumption. In addition, the results reveal that decreasing the quality of water resources due to the increase in salinity encouraged the pistachio growers to cultivate less pistachio crop which would result in reducing their gross profit. Also, decreasing the quality of water resources caused by one unit increase in water salinity has a negative effect on the gross margin (gross profit) of farmers in different regions. This is mainly due to reduction in total area of cultivated pistachio in Rafsanjan County.

    Conclusion

    In general, decreasing the quantity and quality of water resources will cause irreparable damages to the agricultural economy of all studied areas except Bardsir. Therefore, it is vital to adopt appropriate policies to control the quantity and quality of water resources so improving livelihoods and water demand management in the pistachio areas of the province. The increasing salinity poses a serious challenge to the economic productivity of water use and water resources management in Rafsanjan, applying economic productivity improvement tools, such as the use of modern irrigation systems or crop pattern reform strategies and product insurance can be effective in boosting gross margin.

    Keywords: Crop-water-salinity production function, Gross margin, Positive mathematical programmingmodel, Water quality, Water productivity
  • M. Arabshahi, A. Ghafourian Shagerdi*, R. Nikouei, O. Behboodi Pages 413-426
    Introduction

    Environmental pollution and the increase of pollutants affect the reduction in quality and health of the people and concerns society and organizations more than ever. Consideration and importance of environmental protection is considered a necessity and the lack of attention and systematic action will cause damage to humans and the environment. Thinking and buying movement of green and organic products has led the world population to review the types of products they buy and choose which lead to picking less environmental harmful products. This has led to the tendency of the community to consume and buy healthy products as well as the creation of a competitive ground for the companies and organizations for producing organic and green products. People's emotions and moods can affect their purchase positively or negatively. If people are going shopping with feelings like passion and pleasure, they do more to satisfy the needs of pleasure. An important external factor in the purchase of customers is the purchase location. The shopping centre environment affects the understanding of the customer by sensory attributes. The auditory perception and touch sense are important for the impact on vendors and marketers and to encourage customer activity and behavior. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of sensory attributes on the willingness to purchase by customers with mediating role of brand orbital ethics from consumer perspective (study: Nafas customers of organic products) in Mashhad city.

    Method

    This study is applicable in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive - survey nature. Statistical population is all customers and consumers of organic products, who have applied to the branches supply in Mashhad city, chosen by random sampling and non - random sampling, the base 10 - 5 times the number of questions for structural equations of 192 questionnaires were collected. In this study the content validity of questionnaire was confirmed by experts and respected professors of the management group. Reliability of the questionnaire was approved by cronbach's alpha 0 / 825. Data analysis has been done by structural equation modeling techniques with PLS3 and GOF index of 0. 468.

    Result

    The results show the positive effect of brand loyalty on customers' willingness to buy and brand equity has a positive and mediator role on the impact of sensory attributes on customers' propensity to purchase. But the impact of the visual sensory marker on consumers' desire to buy Nafas organic products has been rejected.

     Conclusion

    Suggestion include Given that brand products are commoditized and tangible, consumers may be more focused on tactile sensitivity and their effectiveness which comes from the touch of the commodity based on the results of other hypotheses. On the other hand, listening to the experiences of other customers can also influence people's willingness to buy. It is suggested that the goods be arranged so that customers can easily see the goods and easily identify and purchase the self-brand among the organic product brands. It is recommended to enhance the brightness of the store environment and inform consumers of the changes or environmental changes in product mix through advertising and product labeling. It is suggested that mild music be used to soothe the breath shop space. And also applying acoustic insulation to the walls would reduce inappropriate noise outside the store. Restoration and refurbishment of the shop floor is also very effective in increasing customer satisfaction. It is suggested to focus on improving the touch communication of the product, which increases the satisfaction and therefore the desire to purchase more. In-store products can be contracted as a sample for customers to feel confident in purchasing with the touch of a product type. As the company relates more closely to the customer's culture and social commitment, it can influence customer sentiment and profit through customer mouth-to-mouth advertising on products. Self-brand responsibility is also accessible through employee interaction with customers. These include talking to employees and each other as well as with clients and providing guidance on properties, especially new products, to inform the customer.

    Keywords: Consumer Perceived Brand Ethicality, Organic products willingness to buy, Sensory cuess