فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 92 (زمستان 1398)

Achieving a low unemployment rate has been the goal of all six post-revolutionary development programs as well as other major macro programs. However, the Iranian economy has experienced an average unemployment rate of 10 to 15 percent in recent decades, with no declining trend, so searching about the created employment is essential for proper future policy making. The present study analyzes the developments of Iranian employment during the fourth and fifth development programs (1995-2005) at the provincial level. For this purpose, the logarithmic mean Divisia (LMD) decomposition method is used and the net employment created in each province is subdivided into three effects including economic growth, technical coefficient and structural changes. This study has two conclusions 1) Economic growth during the fourth and fifth development programs played a significant role in provincial employment changes, so pursuing growth-oriented strategies – in comparison to survival-oriented strategy and short-term employment policies – could be a more desirable goal. 2) The role of structural changes in increasing or decreasing employment is not significant, and in addition, there is no conclusive evidence on job creating or job reducing of a sector. As a result, instead of the inclusive version of development with priority of one sector (agriculture, industry or service), acting on the sub-sectoral benefits of provinces that will ensure sustainable growth is a better approach.

The economic components of a geographic region, such as its economic growth, are influenced by the spillover effect of other regions’ economic components. In addition to these spatial dependences, there are common factors, such as oil price, that induce a correlation among the economic variables of the geographic regions. Thus, it is necessary to distinguish between the dependence created by these factors and spatial dependence; otherwise the role of spatial effects will be biased upward, and creating other problems such as inconsistency of coefficients and violations of some common assumptions. In Spatial econometric models such as spatial auto regression and spatial error models, the common factors are not considered. In this paper, for the first time, the existence of spatial dependence on economic growth of Iranian provinces during 1394-79 is tested and evaluated, using a combination of spatial auto regression models and spatial error models, and a combination of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Common correlated effects (CCE). The CCE method is able to consider the role for common correlated effects. The results show that ignoring Common correlated effects contributes to inaccurate results. Significance of proxy variables used for Common correlated effects and lack of significance of variables related to spatial dependence indicate that existing dependence is due to the influence of Common correlated effects and economic growth data of Iran's geographical regions do not show spatial dependency at least at province’s level.

Shortage of electric power is a serious issue for production, especially for those that rely more on electricity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of non-distributed electricity (blackout) on Iranian industry. The sources are derived from two undistributed energy data collected from 39 distribution companies and database of industrial plants. The final panel data is from industrial plants during 1385 to 1392. Results indicate that a one percentage point increase in power outage for firms with average electricity share, decreases production and sales by 0.11 and 0.10 percent respectively, which is significant and quite robust. A smaller negative effect is also observed in production factors such as capital, materials, and productivity, but is not significant. The results also show that electricity and fossil fuels are substitutes. For the firms with average electricity share, the use of fossil fuels increases by 0.045 percent in response to a one percentage point increase in power outage.

The central bank is working to reform the structure of the banking system to bring the banking network in line with world standards. The banking network should strive to adapt itself to the modern world in terms of technology, procedures, and operations. The main prerequisite for this is central bank independence and structural reform of the country's budget. In the current situation, the Central Bank of Iran is severely restricted in pursuing monetary policy independently and in order to stabilize prices. The approach used in this research is game theory. This study attempts to describe and make a model the new interaction that has emerged in the current situation of the Iranian economy between the central bank as a monetary authority and the program and budget organization as a financial representative using the game theory. Determines the existence or absence of equilibrium and its type, and ultimately examines whether equilibrium is in favor of economic development or anti-development. If the balance is of an anti-development type, a policy recommendation should be considered. Based on the output of the modeling, there is a stable equilibrium but does not support development. The results show that equilibrium is formed when the plan and budget organization adopts a strategy of dividing oil revenues between the budget and the fund in favor of the budget and the central bank adopts an active strategy against financial pressure. This shows the strengthening of the supervisory role and then the strengthening of the central bank's monetary policy role, so that the central bank, despite Fiscal Dominance, should play an active role in resisting financial pressures and resisting the printing of money, rather than submitting to financial decisions.

One of the most important tools to reduce traffic violations and consequently the number of accidents in the country is to penalize the offenders. In Iran, double penalty is approved for delaying in payment of a fine, but it is possible that a significant number of offenders would not pay their fines in addition to late payment fines. Hence, in this study, the interactions between traffic police (or Rahvar NAJA) and driver in fines and their remission were examined by game theory and the backward induction Nash equilibrium of the dynamic game with complete information between two mentioned players was extracted. The results of the Nash equilibrium of the game showed that if the penalty remission is repeated again, then the irregular driver (the driver who don`t pay the fine within the deadline) will try to not paying the fine within the deadline; this means that the mentioned fines are not efficient. Also, this mention system of penalties makes regular drivers (drivers who pay fines in due time) to not pay fines for driving violations within the deadline; in other words, the designed system of fine and remission will change the regular driver in to an irregular driver. In this regard, the traffic police (Rahvar NAJA) are suggested that in order to achieve their goals, they should receive the non-payment fine within the deadline without remission or instead of the mentioned fine for irregular drivers, they can use a system of penalties which uses to reward the regular drivers.

The purpose of this study is to introduce and assess various measures of statistical value of life and introduce a way to measure health capital for 19 age cohorts throughout 1996-2015. To do so, we applied a dynamic planning approach and used the data on Iranian household budget survey. The main results show that until 2009, adding a new member to the population of newborns was more socially valued, but after 2009, investment on the health of the newborn had more value. This study concludes that increasing the monetary value of an age group does not necessarily mean that the investment on the health of that group is justifiable. Health capital is estimated to at least 1. 5 in 1996 and at most 8 million U. S $ in 2015. Despite the very strong association between statistical value of life and health capital, this study shows there is no reason why an individual's earnings cannot exceed or be inferior the value of life over a lifetime. Each criteria calculated in this study could have policy application according to the purpose of the social policymaker.

The financial crisis is one of the most important challenges facing many countries so far. One of the most important consequences of the financial crisis is the currency crisis, which creates pressure on the currency market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the pressure of exchange market among developing and developed countries that were affected of global financial crisis (2007-2009). By using quantile regression, The effect of internal factors on the pressure exchange market in these countries was examined in three periods: the pre-crisis period 2000-2006, in the crisis conditions of 2007-2009 and the post-crisis period 2010-2017. The results of the study show that the financial crisis can make difficult for both groups of developing and developed countries. in such sensitive conditions that the slightest change and fluctuation in the exchange rate causes increases or decreases the pressure on the currency market through impact on the mentioned variables. Therefore, in this situation, a level of intervention is needed to achieve the target exchange rate and to avoid pressure on the currency market. The results also showed that both groups of countries are sensitive to the crisis conditions which can affect the currency market pressure. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of applying policy. For developing countries, the increase in domestic credit and capital flows during the financial crisis and post-crisis period reveals the impact of monetary policy on currency market pressure. Therefore, after the crisis, developing countries are more exposed to currency market pressure than developed countries because variables such as domestic credit and capital flows that represent government monetary policy, have positive effect and increase the pressure on the currency market.

In this study, we aim to compare results of the basic and extensive forms of the Thirlwall model (balance of payment constrained growth model) for two economies including Iran and Norway. In this model, demand variables i. e. export and import determine the limit of economic growth in the long run. The balance of payment (deficit) can be a factor as a constraint on the rate of growth of output in the long run, since it puts a limit on the demand growth. Given the key role of oil exports and foreign-exchange reserves in the economics of oil countries, it is useful compare results of this model in this country. To do so, the central bank reserves, as an effective factor in the balance of payments of oil producing countries were added to the import function. Additionally, the price and income elasticities of demand for imports and exports and the co-integration were investigated by using the ARDL model and Pesaran and Shin bond test. Then, we calculated the constrained growth in various forms for ten-year overlapping periods from 1960 to 2016 and finally tested the validity of the Thirlwall law. The results indicate that Thirlwall law is not confirmed for Iran; however, it’s confirmed for Norway. Therefore, the balance of payments in Iran does not restrict economic growth. The lower rate of real growth compared to constrained growth of payments can be because of factors such as the lower rate of capital inflow growth in comparison with the growth rate of export volumes as well as the positive effect of relative prices on the constrained growth of payments. These results are completely reversed for Norway. Results showed that the balance of payments is not a limiting factor for Iran's economic growth confirming the fact that improving economic growth in the long run depends on improving the supply side.

The economic fluctuations and the changing business circles of a country play an important role in the economic performance and fate of any country, which is very important and important when considering the economic situation at a time of boom or recession under accrual conditions. In this paper, In the framework of the Ramsey model, the basis of microeconomics is extracted using neoclassical growth model of simulated research variables and real and simulated variables of cyclic components using Hudrick-Prescott method. Through second-order moments and correlation coefficients on the co-movement of financial policy indices with GDP represented by the periphery index and macroeconomic variables such as private sector consumption, trade balance (export and import) and real interest rate over the years 1971 Until 2016 has been paid in Commitment Conditions. The results indicate that fiscal policy has been periodically in Commitment Conditions. Low cross correlation coefficients of fiscal policy indicators with private sector consumption, trade balance (export and import) and real interest rate (except trade balance fiscal policy indicators at the time of economic boom and taxes with real interest rates on terms of full commitment) confirms research hypotheses.

In the literature on energy economics, estimating and analyzing price elasticities of energy demand is one of the important issues in examining the effectiveness of pricing modalities for energy conservatin and environmental policy follow-up. In this regard, low price elasticities of energy demand will increase the need for non-price policies to change consumer behavior and stimulate energy savings. This study aims to estimate and analyze the price elasticities of energy demand with an emphasis on regional (provincial) diversity. For this purpose, price elasticities of energy demand in Iran's provinces during the period of 2001-2016 were estimated using Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator with heterogeneous slope coefficients. According to the results, the absolute value of the price elasticity of energy demand among the provinces is less than unit (0. 92) , and by the provinces separately, it lies between 0. 37 and 1. 32, as well as the least and greatest values of the price elasticity impute to provinces Qom and Bushehr, respectively. In general, 12 provinces have a price elasticity of energy demand higher than unit and 16 provinces have less than one, among which those of Qom, Hamedan, Qazvin, Tehran and Gilan have the priority of implementing for non-price policies, respectively. Furthermore, results revealed that the price elasticities of energy demand among provinces have positive spatial autocorrelation. The most important policy and research recommendations of this study are discussed for policy makers and researchers.

This paper uses the framework of new Keynesian school and the literature of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to build a general model that can be estimated for Iran economy. By simulating this model, the effects of the implementation of monetary and foreign exchange policies through policy instruments including bank interest rate, central bank international reserves and the nominal exchange rate are  evaluated on macroeconomic variables such as real trade balance, production gap, inflation rate, real exchange rate and foreign assets. Monetary and foreign exchange policies are arranged in the form of simple rule policy, and under three foreign exchange policies including managed, floating and pegged exchange rate regimes. The results show that monetary and foreign exchange policies have an effect on the stability of variables related to foreign sectors (real trade balance, real exchange rate, foreign assets and …).  Also in comparison with other alternative regimes, central exchange regime (managed) scenario is in priority and leads to less fluctuations in the model's endogenous variables.

Today, Systemic Risk is being analyzed as one of the major issues in financial institutions. Banks are one of the institutions that can be linked to systemic risk based on global experience. Therefore, in the study, we evaluate the systemic risk in the banking system of the country via the marginal expected shortfall (MES) criterion. For the purpose of the present study, 17 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange that had seasonal information required for this research over a period of 1389 to 1397 were selected and the systemic risk in these banks was calculated by MES criterion. The finding of this study show the difference between MES of banks and indicate that if a crisis occurs in the financial system or market, the banks are affected but the drgree of impact is different from the finance crisis. Furthermore, compared with other banks, the estimation of the highest marginal expected shortfall belonged to bank gardeshgari (15. 84) and the lowest belonged to Bank Sarmayeh (-18. 38). In other words, if there is a crisis in the market, Bank Gardeshgari and Bank Sarmayeh are expected to experience a return of 15. 84 percent and -18. 34 percent, respectively.