فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال هفتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 24، بهار 1399)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the estimation of gasoline demand by the state-space model and the implications for price liberalization using the Kalman filter technique in the framework of time-varying pattern. For this purpose, data on the Energy Balance Sheet and the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company during the period of 1396-1374 have been used. The results of the estimation of the model indicate that the price elasticity of gasoline varies in the period under review and after implementing the targeted subsidies (1389-1396) in some seasons of the year, absolute value the price of gasoline increased and decreased in some seasons. With three different scenarios, it is expected that each year, with a 10% increase in gasoline prices in the sixth development plan, Unexpectedly, demand for gasoline will not decrease .Also, due to the fact that absolute value of the stretching of the price of gasoline at the beginning of the sixth plan of development is greater and at the end of the program, the gasoline price increase over the program should not be the same. Therefore, it is recommended that planners and policy makers to control the demand for gas should set the price of gasoline in the sixth development plan more than 10% and this increase should be from the beginning of the program to the end of the program ascending.

Women, as half of the population of the society, play a decisive role in economic, political and social activities. So, in this paper, the effects of monetary, supply of female labor force and technology shocks on macroeconomic variables such as production, employment of women and men, total employment and gender inequality in the labor market are discussed, in the framework of a DSGE model. The results indicate that monetary and technology shocks increase production, employment of women and men, and total employment. These shocks increase men's employment more than women's, and as a result, gender inequality in the labor market increases. Supply of female labor force shock increases production, total employment and women's employment, and reduces men's employment, as a result, gender inequality in the labor market decreases. This study helps economic policymakers and planners to assess the impact of these shocks on economic variables, especially on the employment of men and women, and gender inequality in the labor market, and, by adopting appropriate policies, reduce the inefficiencies.

The reform of the tax system has always been a major concern for economists as well as a major challenge for policymakers. One of the main priorities of the Iranian tax system is to delve into consideration of obligatory religious payments (Khums) and charity in order to persuade people to pay taxes as well as to reduce tax burden. One of the suggestions have been offered in this field is to substitute Khums for the corresponding income taxes. Khums has a structure the same as tax on total income with a flat rate. In the present contribution, the economic effects of this suggestion were evaluated. The assessment of tax proposals is often studied by performing simulations. The present study evaluated and asserted the suggested changes in the personal income tax structure in Iran with the features of khums (rate unionization and its post-consumption) via the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and the Social Accounting Matrix 1390 (2011). The outcomes of the present study showed that the household savings have been declined over a 30-year period, while household consumption and expenses have increased at the same period of time. In other words, current consumption is preferable rather than saving for the future. In spite of increasing consumption, reduction in saving has resulted in lower investment, which ultimately it would cause a decrease in GDP.

The purpose of this study is to investigate threshold effects of exchange rate fluctuations on private investment in Iran. For this purpose, were used the data from 1974-2017 and Generalized Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and atouthreshold regression model. Based on the results obtained, is confirmed existence of the impact of thresholds on and exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in Iran. Accordingly, although the effect of increasing exchange rate fluctuations less than the threshold on the investment in this sector was negative, no statistically significant effect was observed. Also in the currency regime with fluctuations above the threshold of 2122 Rials, is increased the negative impact of the exchange rate on private sector investment. So, although, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on private equity investment has always been negative, if the exchange rate volatility exceeds the threshold, the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment, significant and its reducing effect was reinforced. In addition, according to the research findings, GDP and private sector investment with a lag,have a positive and significant effect and government investment has a negative and significant effect on private sector investment.

The expansion of the dual exchange system (official and unofficial) increases the concerns about imbalances in macroeconomic variables, particularly, income inequality. Also, Inflation and unemployment are as the macroeconomic variables that can affect income inequality. Accordingly, the present study wants to investigate the role of the black market premium (Dollar) and the asymmetric effect of the unemployment rate and inflation on income inequality. For this purpose, based on the annual data between 1978 and 2017, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach has been used in estimation. The results show that the black market premium in both linear and non-linear forms has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality. Unemployment in linear form has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality only in the long run. In non-linear form, the decreases in unemployment have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality in the short run. In the long run, both increases and decreases in unemployment have a direct impact on income inequality and the value of the desirable effect of decreases in unemployment is more than the undesirable effect of increases. Thus, the impact of asymmetric unemployment is confirmed on the income inequality in both the short and long run. Inflation in linear form has a direct effect on income inequality, but in non-linear form, both in the short and long run, decreases in inflation have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality. Hence, inflation also has an asymmetric effect on income inequality. Another finding is that

Characteristic of skewness, fat tails and frequency dimension are important features of financial time series that have not been taken into account in classical econometric models. Therefore, in this study, the Bayesian method for conditional variance heteroscedasticity based on wavelet analysis has been used to investigate the volatility spillover effect and dynamic conditional correlations in three sub-periods between the daily return data of selected Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) indices during the period from December 14, 2008 to April 20, 2019. Sub-periods are defined according to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which includes the pre-JCPOA period, JCPOA period, and the period after United States withdrawal from the JCPOA. The results of the Bayesian DCC GARCH (1,1) model, with the rejection of the constant conditional correlation hypothesis versus the dynamic conditional correlation hypothesis based on posterior marginal distribution in all subsections, indicates that the impact of shocks on the volatility of stock returns in wavelets and sub-periods are not the same. Also, Bayesian dynamic conditional correlation graphs are recommended for each sub-periods and in each wavelet, a different stock for a suitable investment. The main idea used in this research can be used in the calculations of asset risks and the selection of optimal asset portfolios.

It is important for economic policy makers to study and predict the sustainability of currency crisis effect on macroeconomic variables, especially GDP. In this regard, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of currency crisis on GDP dynamics during 1970-2016. In this regard, the empirical model has been estimated using the theoretical basis of the research and GPS approach. According to the results, the negative effect of the currency crisis on GDP is confirmed in short run. Foreign capital inflow and short-term foreign debt are among the factors exacerbating the effect of currency crisis on GDP growth in short run. The rate of export growth and the changes in terms of trade are moderating effect of currency crisis on -GDP. Increasing the supply of national currency as well as increasing government spending and budget deficits are exacerbating effect of crisis. Rising interest rates also increase the negative effects of currency crisis on GDP

In the literature of international trade economics, the approach of economic complexity implies that the type of products and their production technologies represent the amount of productive knowledge available and the commercial production capacity of the products depends entirely on the countries enjoying the amount of productive knowledge accumulated in the production economy. In this regard, the adoption of trade liberalization policies has a major impact on the overall structure of the economy as well as on the transfer of knowledge and ideas, through foreign trade imports, which leads to product innovation and increased value added generating. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of government trade liberalization on the economic complexity of eight developing economies named Group D8 member countries during the period 2002-2017; using the PVAR method. immediate reaction test results show that, over a period of 10 years, economic complexity increases with positive shock from variables of trade freedom, foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation, but in the long run, the effect of imports of intermediary and capital goods is initially increasing and, after a short period, has a positive downward effect. The results of the analysis of variance also show, the variables of economic complexity, import of intermediate and capital goods, gross fixed capital formation, trade freedom and foreign direct investment respectively have the most impact on economic complexity, respectively.

The environmental crises, caused by the increased energy consumption and the increasing trend of pollutants emissions resulted from energy carrier’s combustion in the world, is recognized as one of the most important challenges faced by governments in the 21st century. The CO2 taxation is considered as one of the CO2 emission reduction policies in one hand and increases government income on the other hand. Implementation of this policy has distributive effects that can help policymakers measure it. The present study aimed to investigate the distributive effects of CO2 taxation on urban and rural households’ incomes, using the environmental input-output approach. Main data bases in this study are: 2011 input-output table of Static Centre of Iran that is aggregated to 12 sectors due to statistical constraints on sectoral energy consumption. The second data base is consumption of petroleum products of economic was obtained from energy balanced sheet 2011. Rural and urban expenditure and incomes’ households are collected from 2011 Static Centre of Iran, This results show that the distributional effect of the carbon tax on rural household is progressive but for urban households not.

The employment rate is among the key indicators of the labor market and is subject to various economic components. One of the most important factors affecting employment is the corruption variable. Therefore, in this study, the effect of different indicators of corruption on employment level in Iran and Selected Islamic Countries is studied and three separate models are estimated in the period 2000- 2018. After estimating the models using panel data method, the cross-sectional dependency test was performed on the estimated models and at the 5% significance level, the existence of cross-sectional dependency was accepted. Therefore, for obtain reliable results, the Cup-FM Method was used to estimate the model. The results of model estimation showed that in all three models, corruption index had a negative effect on employee-to-population ratio and this effect was statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. The effect of banks' lending facilities on the ratio of employee-to-population ratio was positive in all three models but not significant at the 5% level. Capital stock and real wage had a positive and negative effect on employee-to-population ratio, respectively, and this effect was statistically significant at the 5% level. Trade openness also had a positive effect on the employee-to-population ratio, and only in the first model was this effect statistically significant. According to the estimated results, the effect of inflation on employment level was negative and this effect (except in the second model) was statistically significant.