فصلنامه پژوهش های سیاستگذاری و برنامه ریزی انرژی
سال ششم شماره 2 (تابستان 1399)

The oil industry is one of the biggest and most effective industries in the world. Duo to complex structure of petroleum supply chains and price and demand uncertainties, supply chain design is a suitable method for improving this industry. The complexity of supply chains causes increase vulnerability to disruption. Therefore, in order to design this supply chain, attention to resiliency that enables the supply chain to perform well in face of disruption is necessary. Duo to lack of resiliency and disruption concept in the petroleum supply chain literature, a two stage stochastic model has been proposed. Additionally, to deal with disruptions, the strategy of developing refineries and replacement of bioethanol that affect oil exports and octane import of gasoline, is also studied. Results show that disruption in octane imports reduces the current net present value and in the oil transfer sector to export terminals causes a decrease of 2 % of the objective function. Additionally, using strategies such as increasing the capacity of the refineries cause a 1 % improvement in the objective function. The model has been solved using augmented epsilon constraint method for Iran as a case study for an 8 years time horizon and sensitivity analysis has been conducted.

Many models have been proposed for measuring performance of business agencies up to now. The goal of this research is providing a new approach for evaluation and measurement of efficiencies of national power distribution companies. This approach is provided as a combination of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Game Theory for evaluation of decision-making units by a large scale of actions. In the case study pertaining to Classic DEA models, decision-making units are often exggeratedly considered as efficient units. For removing this problem and decreasing the number of variables, bargaining game as a collaborative one is combined with DEA model. The results of standard efficiency indicate that 27 out of 39 studied companies have efficiency of 100%. Despite Classic DEA, in which many companies are efficient, the combination method distinguishes optimal scores of companies and assigns different ranks to them. The results show that standard efficiency performances of companies have been averagely promoted up to 7.2% by output increment and up to 6.8% by decrement of inputs. Also, the results of combination of bargaining game and DEA show that distribution companies in Tabriz, Fars, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, and Kohkiluyeh & Buyerahmad provinces occupy the first five ranks, and West Azarbayjan, Gilan, and Hamedan occupy the lowest ranks.

Environment and the need to protect and care for it, is one of the main concerns of industrial development in todaychr('39')s society; and air pollution is one of the most noticeable and tangible causes of it. The increasingly growth of the industry has led to the production and diffusion of gaseous pollutants into the air and among them; thermal power plants are one of the most important sources of emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. This study uses a system dynamics approach and Vensim software to simulate components and processes affecting the conditions of pollutants released into the air through a combined cycle power plant based on measured actual data. In addition, analyzing different scenarios, has determined the type of process, optimum fuel and the maximum possible capacity upgrade of the combined cycle power plants considering the maximum allowable level of pollutant emissions in the atmosphere with using different efficiency enhancing techniques. Altogether, the operation modes of gas turbine (Premix , Diffusion), the type of fuel used in gas turbine (Natural gas , Gasoil), the use or non-use of fogging system in the air intake of gas turbine, as well as water or steam injection in the gas turbine burner have been identified and analyzed as the main factors and variables affecting pollutant emissions in the combined cycle power plant.

The phenomenon of wet dust in Khuzestan province in February 2016 affected the provincechr('39')s electricity network and caused a widespread blackout. Following the power outage, other infrastructure in the province also suffered, the blackout crisis stimulated widespread social reactions. Accordingly, in this article, using the mixed method methodology, the dimensions and social consequences of the disaster are identified and analyzed. The results of qualitative section analysis showed that three categories of "disaster characteristics", "social contexts of the province" and" disaster readiness and management" have had an impact on "perception of the disaster". In addition, the social consequences of the disaster, such as "increased tendency to migrate from Khuzestan province" can be interpreted in direct connection with the perception of the disaster. The results of the quantitative part also confirmed the interpretations obtained in the qualitative part. However, the key finding of the article was that there was a wide perception gap between officials and different groups of people in Khuzestan regarding the different dimensions of the disaster. This makes it possible to understand the social reactions after the disaster. In the final part of the article, emphasizing the importance of social studies in the planning and policies of the Ministry of Energy and focusing on the Khuzestan disaster, suggestions are presented to promote social resilience in Khuzestan province.

Nowadays, energy extraction from sea waves as a renewable energy source has been increasingly considered. In addition, the growing demand for energy as a result of development of industrial activities, air pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse problems caused a new challenge for humankind. Tidal energy is a type of energy that is derived from converting the tidal power of the sea into electricity or other types of energy applications. Although this energy is still not widely used, it has the potential to generate sustainable electricity in the future. Due to weak tidal currents, Iran has a little potential for extracting the energy to produce electricity. However, the conditions of the length and width of the Persian Gulf, and the existence of several small and large bays and their splits in the north of the Gulf, cause a special attention to this energy in recent years. In this study, a single pond system was modeled by Flow 3D software to evaluate the amount of electricity power production from the tidal wave in Bandar Abbas, Shahid Rajaee port. The results showed that a tidal wave with an average wave amplitude of 3 meters in the port could produce an average of 1267 kWh in a tidal cycle. The comparison of power production in Imam Khomeini and Shahid Rajaee ports showed that Imam Khomeini port was able to produce more power (around 65%) in comparison with Shahid Rajaee port due to its higher wave amplitude.

In recent years, optimal use of fossil fuels, reduction of environmental pollution and exploitation of renewable energy is one of the most important issues in the policies of different countries, and as you know, Iranchr('39')s electricity industry is dependent on fossil fuel consumption strongly, which causes environmental pollution. The aim of this study is to obtain the optimal combination of electricity production plants in despite the uncertainties in the required components in decision making, in order to minimize environmental pollution and production costs. In this study, two-stage stochastic programming and interval parameter linear programming have been used to minimize uncertainty in electricity generation planning and fossil energy consumption. From one side, stochastic programming with considering different scenarios and from another side interval parameter instead of pointwise data minimize uncertainty in this study. Also, in obtaining the results, the data of the electricity industry report of West Azerbaijan province in 1394, 1395 and 1396 have been used. The results of this study show that the amount of production of combined cycle power plants and hydropower plant in this province is less than the optimal amount, And the amount of gas power plantchr('39')s production in this province is more than the optimal amount. It is also necessary to plan for the development of capacity in the Khoi Combined Cycle Power Plant.

In the present study, due to the high cost of smart metering, the electricity load data of Tehran is decomposed to identify the energy consumption pattern and the energy-saving potentials of households. The present study identifies household consumption in times of low, medium and peak load. To identify the household load curve, the aggregated hourly load data is decomposed and its components are estimated using an optimization model. The optimization is performed in such a way that the power data are consistent with the annual billing data for all end-users. The load analysis has been conducted for 1385-1397. Using load decomposition results, the hourly electricity consumption of some end-uses and the consumption pattern of the households are identified. The results show that during the period under study, the power of the refrigerator-freezer as well as the lighting has been significantly decreased. The electricity used for lighting for a household during peak hours (around 9 pm) has decreased from about 300 watts in 2006 to about 130 watts in 2017. As for the refrigerator-freezers, despite the 100 kWh consumption reduction per year during the years under study, the reduction potential of the refrigerator consumption is on average more than 250 kilowatts per year for a household. An examination of the consumption load curve also shows that despite of electricity consuming device penetration in the household sector, householdchr('39')s electricity consumption in the standard load (in spring or autumn) has decreased over time, which is due to improved lighting efficiency.