پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 76 (بهار 1399)

This study aims to introduce the microstructure approach to the exchange rate as the 4th generation of exchange rate models and to apply it in a simulation model to study the effects of transparency of macroeconomic data on exchange rate fluctuations. The microstructure approach to the exchange rate is developed to include decentralized and multi-layer structure of currency markets along with information complexities in this market and the role of trading mechanisms in exchange rate determination. After introducing this approach, we have developed our theoretical model to use it for simulation. In this simulation, we have studied the effects of transparency of macro data release on exchange rate fluctuation. To achieve this goal, we have used two variables of “delay in macro data release” and “error in macro data release”. Our simulation results show that an increase in macro data release delay leads to higher volatility of The exchange rate. This is because of increasing uncertainty for economic agents. In addition, an increase in macro data release delay leads to a farther delay in responsiveness of the exchange rate to movements in its macro fundamental variables. Although we have found a non-linear relationship between  the “error in macro data release” variable and exchange rate volatility, the magnitude of this effect is less than the effect of the “delay in macro data release” variable on exchange rate volatility. Based on our results, we recommend that to have lower exchange rate volatility, authorities should increase the transparency of macroeconomic data releases and especially they should lower the delay in macro data releases.

Today, tourism is one of the world's highest booming economic sectors and it is such important in socio-economic development that economists have called it “invisible export”. Given the expanding role of tourism in economic prosperity and the existence of religious and historic sites in Khorasan Razavi province, especially the Imam Reza holy shrine, the impact of tourism on the economy of Khorasan Razavi province is studied in form of a two-region input-output model. For this purpose, input-output coefficients of Khorasan Razavi province and other areas of Iran have been calculated with the use of FLQ non-statistical method from the national input-output table of the year 2011. By calculating direct and increasing coefficients of production and employment in Khorasan Razavi province and the rest of the national economy, a two-region input-output model is presented here. The expenditures paid by domestic tourists staying in the province have been added to our model as export of this province. Our findings show that because of domestic tourists in year 2011, production and employment in this province have been increased 12/11 and 11/47 percent respectively. Moreover, The manufacturing sector in Khorasan Razavi did have the highest level of output impact from the arrival of domestic tourists. The tourism-related sectors, such as transportation and warehousing on the one hand, and wholesale and retail on the other hand were placed in the second and third rank respectively.

Innovators and investors often claim that there is a “funding gap” or “valley of death” in the middle phase of the process between basic research and commercialization of a new product. This gap or valley has a significant impact on the productivity of financial incentives to support R&D activities to move the technology toward commercialization. Financial incentives include tax incentives, subsidies, grants, and other incentives. Each company faces the marginal rate of return and the marginal cost of capital for R&D expenditures, which are influenced by public R&D policies. This research aims to apply the complexity of the microeconomic conceptual framework into a regional form using CES functions. Therefore, three regions of Europe (OECD), South East Asia and Central Asia are selected to compare the effects of financial incentives. For this purpose, spatial dynamic panel models for the period 2005–2016 is used. By confirming the SDM model, government fiscal incentives have internal, external and total impacts as supportive policies that can stimulate R&D activities and their funding. The positive and significant total effect of tax incentives on R&D was confirmed in OECD countries and positive external influence was affirmed in South East Asia, but for Central Asian countries, the effect of tax incentives was not confirmed. There is also an interactive (substitution) relationship between direct support and tax incentives in OECD countries. This relationship is complementary to South East Asia and Central Asia countries.

This research aims to study the relationship between value-added of the construction sector and the Iranian economy using Iranian National Accounts data for period 1959-2014. The gross domestic product of Iran is broken down into three segments: construction, oil, and the rest, and the cyclical components of each of these variables are extracted. Applying different statistical techniques (correlation, least square regression, and vector autoregressive analysis) along with defining and extracting prolonged relative low-activity periods –times consistent of at least two consecutive periods of negative growth rates of the cyclical component– we have found that: 1) fluctuations of oil sector leads those of the construction and the rest (oil and construction excluded) sectors. 2) prolonged relative low-activity periods in the construction sector often begin concurrent or after the whole economy, and often ends one year later than the whole economy. 3) a shock to the rest sector has a significant impact on the construction sector. 4) the fluctuations in the construction sector do not have a significant effect on the rest sector. All in all, the results provide no evidence that the construction sector leads or drives the Iranian economy.

Many scholars emphasize the importance of economic competitiveness in the improvement of economic growth. However, studies that quantitatively analyze the interconnection between different components of competitiveness in one economy and their impact on economic growth are very limited. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to fill the gap in the literature on economic growth and study the effect of competitiveness in different stages of economic development. In this regard, using the data of 81 countries of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in three groups of resource-, efficiency- and innovation-driven countries for years 2008-2017, the relationship between national competitiveness and economic growth is examined through the econometric model of generalized method of Moments (GMM). Our results indicate that the impact of institutions, infrastructure, higher education, business complexity and innovation on economic growth is positive and significant in all three groups of countries. In addition, the impact of labor market efficiency, financial market development and macroeconomic stability has been significant only in inefficiency - and innovation-driven, and the impact of primary education and health had been meaningful only in resource-driven countries. In addition, the effect of the goods market efficiency and market size on economic growth has been significant only in innovation-driven countries and technology-readiness was significant in all but innovation-driven countries. In summary, our estimation results indicate that the impact of competitiveness components on economic growth in different countries varies according to their stage of development.

The history of oil contracts in the last century indicates that oil contracts are a form of conflict between the interests of foreign oil companies and national interests of reservoir-owning governments. In this context, an important question arises for reservoir-owning governments as to which existing conventional upstream contracts should be chosen to maximize benefits. Representation theory has been used to answer this research question. In the designed model, each party's interest function in each of the upstream contracts is identified and modeled. Also, the rationality and motivation conditions in this model have been analyzed as participation constraints. The results of the proposed model using the genetic algorithm method show that, given field coordinates, the production-sharing contract has the lowest representation cost compared to the other two contracts of concession and service purchase. And as the selected model, production-sharing contracts can make the most profit for reservoir-owning governments.

Explaining change has always been one of the greatest challenges in social sciences. With a particular focus on economic change, Schumpeter introduced novelty as the key to fundamental changes and subsequent economic development. Recognizing the corresponding epistemological foundations of a novel phenomenon is the starting point for understanding itself, its process, conditions, and prerequisites. Hence, in this paper, first we discuss the assumptions governing novelty and novel phenomena. Then, we compare the three major approaches used to explain entrepreneurial phenomena in the literature, namely neoclassic, neo-Austrian, and radical subjectivism, and we explain the appropriate novelty-based epistemological foundation of entrepreneurship. To better understand radical subjectivism, we discuss its five fundamental assumptions, namely “imaginative choice,” “plans based on past experiences and future expectations”, “heterogeneity and in equilibrium”, “the metaphor of the world as a kaleidoscope” and “the creation of order”. finally, the implications of these assumptions are set forth for future research on economics and entrepreneurship.