پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 87 (زمستان 1401)

This study utilizes the continuous wavelet transform approach and time-frequency domain analysis to shed new light on the causal relationship between land, housing prices, liquidity , and economic growth. According to the results of the research: 1) In the short term (12-month cycle), the relationship between housing/land prices and liquidity is two-way and direct, while in lower frequencies (long-term), a direct causal relationship from liquidity to the growth of housing/land prices is evident. 2) Analysing the dynamics of the causal relationship between housing/land prices and economic growthindicates a long-term causal relationship between these variables. 3) In the medium and long term, a stable, strong, and in-phase relationship exists between the ratio of liquidity to GDP and the ratio of the housing price index to the price index. This implies that when the liquidity-to-GDP ratio increases, leading to a higher influx of liquidity into the land and housing sector, the housing price index surpasses the overall price index.

The expected value of a company’s stock can change in response  to new inside and outside information, depending on the nature of the company. The main purpose of this paper is to test the effect of new and different types of information on the bid-ask spread. Accordingly, using with an event study on  a selected sample, we identify release days and specify dummy variables and then we analyze the effect of information on the bid-ask spread with a panel data odel.Other variables include stock return, transaction volume, market return, and the percentage  change in the dollar’s price, oil price, and the average price of precious Metals. Results of the empirical model show that while the new inside information has a positive effect on the liquidity, changes in the outside information lead to a wider bid-ask spread and  lower  stock liquidity. Therefore, outside policy has a negative effect through informational risk and the stability of the outside variable is important for the market’s performance.

In this article, we introduce three types of input-output tables and modify a central bank table from 2016 to illustrate the transition from the first generation of statistical bases to the second generation, which meets the new international trade theory’s database requirements. The third type of table is critical and is considered the starting point for such changes. Given the lack of such a table in Iran, this article offers three challenges, followed by three critical questions: first, what can be done if official compilers do not attempt to develop such an input-output table soon? Second, which of the two types of tables has more statistical errors than the modified tables? Third, which of the two input-output tables is better for measuring value-added content in gross exports? The central bank's most recent SUT and intermediate import utilization data from 2016 are utilized to investigate three questions. The data show that: calculating the third type of table can solve this lack of statistics. In comparison to the second table, the third table exhibits fewer statistical mistakes. Finally, the third type of table outperforms the second in terms of quantifying value-added content in gross exports.

In Iran's economy, most of the financial resources needed by economic enterprises are provided through the granting of facilities by the banking network. Therefore, studying the factors affecting banking facilities in the private sector in Iran's economy is of particular importance. In this article, we investigate the factors affecting the facilities granted by banks using quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 1379 to 1399 with the nonlinear Markov switching approach. A non-linear approach was used because bank facilities show different effects of economic factors during periods of credit and commercial boom and bust. The results of the research show that the economic growth rate, the interest rate of facilities and the growth rate of bank deposits have a positive relationship with the growth of real facilities and the interest rate of bank deposits has a negative effect on it, but the degree of influence of each of the economic factors on the growth rate of real facilities is different in every cycle. This asymmetric impact of macroeconomic factors during different cyclical periods is important in policymaking and should be taken into consideration when making monetary policy.

Oil prices and their uncertainties significantly impact the economies and financial markets of nations, influencing the cash reserves held by companies. Given the pivotal role of the chemical products industry has an important role in economic development and is also affected by other markets such as the oil market, this study aims to to investigate the effect of Brent oil price uncertainty on the cash holding of the chemical products group in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2010-2019. The research modeling is based on dynamic panel models and oil price uncertainty is computed through the GARCH method, while the relationships between variables are estimated using the Generalized method of moments (GMM) technique in two steps. The results of the study indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between oil price uncertainty and cash holdings during the period under review. In addition, the effect of control variables such as financial leverage, cash flow, size, capital expenditures, liquidity, stock return, and return of assets is positive, and the effect of total debt, value added of industry, and interest rates on the cash is negative.

Debt management, as one of the important aspects of fiscal policy in countries around the world, is constantly considered by policymakers. As public debt can have a positive impact on economic growth and can pose a threat to the financial and debt crisis, it must be managed properly and through appropriate rules. In this study, while examining the methods of debt sensitivity and stability analysis, Iran's experience in debt management in the first to sixth development programs after the Islamic Revolution (1979) has been studied and with attention to Iran's debt conditions on the eve of the seventh development plan, this paper proposes appropriate policies for effective debt management and control.
We find that Iran, in the Seventh Development Plan, can amend and extend the debt-based rule in paragraph "t" of Article 8 of the Sixth Development Plan, which is presented in this article. It is also necessary for the government to submit a table of indicators related to government debt (share of short-term debt, changes in short-term debt, net government debt) to the Parliament as it has been added as a new note to this article.