فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 95 (پاییز 1399)

Over the past three decades, the use of fiscal rules in the budgeting of countries has become increasingly widespread, with only five countries using central government fiscal rules in the 1990s, but today the number of countries with national rules and It has reached more than ninety countries. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and select the appropriate budget balance rule for the Iran economy and based on DSGE modeling approach considering the three structural budget balance, budget surplus and countercyclical rules. Has been used. The results show that due to a productivity shock, the policy loss function is minimized using the budget balance rule and in the case of an oil shock (price and technology) the countercyclical rule, taking into account the tax revenue gap. One of the most important suggestions of this paper is to consider the issue of rules within the framework of reforming the budgeting system in the country.

We investigate the impact of land reform on the destruction of "Bone" and agricultural production in the arid regions in Iran. We employ the agricultural census collected in 1960 (1339) and 1971 (1350)-1974 (1353). Our empirical methodology is difference-in-difference. Results indicate that in regions with bone, the agricultural production has dropped due to the land reform of 1962 (1341)-1966 (1345). We interpret this finding due to destruction of the lord-peasant relationship which has had guaranteed investment in common sources like water provision system.  Besides the statistical contribution of this research, it lights on future research by firstly employing historical datasets in Iran. Moreover, future researches may study the general equilibrium effect of the land reform on the whole economy, and not just the agricultural sector.

In this Paper, business cycle asymmetry in Iran has been investigated using a nonlinear unobserved component model. In this regard, according to Kim and Nelsonchr('39')s (1999) interpretation of Friedman plucking model (1993), asymmetric transitory component has been modeled and simultaneously the possibility of a correlation between transitory and permanent shocks has also been considered. The results confirm weakly the asymmetric transitory shocks and the ceiling level for output according to Friedman’s model. In addition, it is also suggested by the results that ignoring the correlation between shocks underestimates the importance of permanent shocks to GDP.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the rationality of behavioral economics in mental accounting by studying laboratory economics. Undoubtedly, economic man, whose fundamental characteristic is rationality, is the starting point for economic analysis. In conventional economics, the premise of rationality is the cornerstone and the premise of all economic theories. However, critics of economic rationality argue that economic agents sometimes exhibit irrational behaviors that may be limited by mental capabilities. Behavioral economics, which is generally based on abstract preferences, addresses the general frameworks of subjective accounting. In this study, an economic experiment was designed by providing a laboratory environment and using thirty actors. Laboratory economics assesses behavioral assumptions and theories by means of controlled experiments. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between the rationality of economic behavior and mental accounting. This study argues that it is not possible to provide a realistic analysis of individualschr('39') financial behaviors only on the assumption of rationality and without considering other factors, particularly the behavioral constraints of decision makers. Given the limited number of studies of behavioral economics, the present study can help us to better understand financial behaviors of mental accounting origin.

The purpose of the current study is to determine the optimum level of the governmentchr('39')s debt for the period of the sixth plan period of the economic, social a eviation of the target variables economic growth rate, inflation rate, real GDP and nd cultural development of the government. Therefore, a function of inter periodic loss welfare has been devised for the policy maker in which the squared d consumer price index from the targeted amount in the sixth plan.
To do so, the dynamic optimization was used in which the control amounts including tax revenues, governmentchr('39')s current payments, governmentchr('39')s acquisition of non-financial assets and liquidity. The result of this study not only determines the optimal level of the public debt, but it also shows tax revenues and optimal liquidity is less than the sixth plan amount and the current payments as well as the optimal acquisition of non-financial assets is more than the approved amount of the economic sixth plan. Also, the optimal economic growth rate is less than 8% in compare with the rate of the Sixth Economic Development Plan that shows the optimal inflation rate for this duration about 13%. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers adjust the economic growth rate and inflation rate in their planning

The topic of poverty has always been studied in the world. If we can break down poverty, we will have a better understanding of the changes in poverty .The purpose of this article is to show the status of poverty and its three dimensions in chronic and transient poverty in Iran using the raw data of the Iranian Statistical Center and drawing the three dimensional curve of poverty (TIP) using the Jenkins and Lambert (1997) method, the poverty status and its dimensions in Iran were studied and then followed by Chakravati et al .chr('39')s (2008) new analysis of the two components of chronic poverty and transient poverty and their extraction from total poverty over an 11-year period in the Iranian economy since. It was done from 2007 to 2017. Finally, the effect of three dimensions of poverty on chronic poverty and transient poverty was calculated based on Shapleychr('39')s method The results obtained from Income Poverty show that at any given time, nearly 60 percent of Iranchr('39')s population is below the poverty line. Poverty intensity is 0.54 and income inequality among the poor is 0.34 .Chronic poverty accounts for 84 percent of total poverty in Iran. Also, the share of poverty incidence and the intensity of poverty and inequality among the poor on chronic poverty are 47%, 35% and 18%, respectively. and the share of the three dimensions of poverty on transient poverty is 65%, 7%, and 28%, respectively. Chronic poverty is strongly affected by poverty incidence and the intensity of poverty and transient poverty is more affected by poverty incidence than other dimensions of poverty.

The financial market plays an important role in any economic system by financing the real sector. Considering the major contribution of the credit market to total financing in Iran, it is clear that inefficiencies and market risks can significantly affect the real sector. In the Iranian economy, in recent years, credit crunch has been created for many reasons. The purpose of this paper is to study the most important reasons for the credit crunch in the Iranian banking network and their effects on bank lending and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the Iranian banking system has been tried to be organized within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in order to create a new horizon for policy impact assessment. The results show that the nonperforming loan shocks is more effective in reducing credit than other shocks, and the length of time it goes away is longer.

The purpose of this paper is to study the behavior of the housing price affordability index in the urban areas of Iran during the 1992-2017 period, and to explain the effect of monetary policy shocks and asset marketschr('39') performance on this index during the referred period. The Granger Cointegration Test was used to study the behavior of the mentioned index and the SVAR Model was applied to explain the effect of the said shocks on the housing price affordability index. According to the findings of this study, the fluctuations of the housing price affordability index in urban areas are far beyond a short-term imbalance in a way that with the further widening of the gap between household income and urban housing prices, the convergence of these two variables could not be confirmed. Based on the SVAR model results, the greatest impact on housing price affordability is resulted from the shocks caused by housing prices. In addition, the impact of liquidity shocks and real interest rates on the affordability of housing prices is greater than the shocks resulted from market behavior of the competitorschr('39') assets.

The global financial crisis in 2007 showed that financial variables from different channels could exacerbate business cycle fluctuations. From the perspective of modeling in the economy, the models that assumed financial markets without friction lost their credibility. Accordingly, the correct response of the monetary authorities to the financial cycles has become one of the theoretical and political concerns. Therefore, the present study examines the effects of the central bankchr('39')s reaction to financial cycles during the period of 1369:1 to 1395:4 implementing several counterfactual simulations within the framework of the New Keynesian model. The results in different scenarios indicated that the more sensitive the central bank is to the financial cycle, the output will have less affects by financial shocks. However, inflation will respond to the shock of the financial sector with more fluctuations; therefore, it seems that monetary policy in Iran cannot reduce the effects of financial shock on macroeconomics solely through a change in the monetary base.

Policy makers impose policies to improve economy circumstance in order to achieve economic goals. However, the consequence of these policies along with the intended goals will also influence expectations, fluctuations, etc., and cause changes in levels of uncertainty. The important role of the stock market in the economy, makes it important to examine its uncertainty and its interaction with monetary policy.In this study, the uncertainty of stock market uncertainty is estimated using Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). For surveying the mutual shocks of monetary policy and uncertainty on each other and output, the impulse respond (IR) that is so useful in structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) models are used. The source of quarterly data is Statistical Center of Iran (S.C.I) from 2001 to 2016. The results of (IR) indicate the monetary policy shocks are effective and lasting in stock market uncertainty and about output have negative effects. While, this stock market uncertainty exacerbated by monetary policy, has a negative effect on output. This means that monetary policy authority; should pay more attention to monetary policy shocks and Keep the economy away from monetary shocks.

In this research, the impact of scale economies and product variety on the foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries with its major trading partners is examined. While using the data of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing sector at two digit level, a translog production function was used to evaluate the economies of scale in this sector. The data covered the period between 2001 to 2015. Moreover, Feenstra variety index is exploited to measure product variety in the export products of Iranchr('39')s industrial sector. While using iterative seemingly unrelated method to estimate  the economies of scale, a dynamic panel data via GMM method was used to estimate the standarad trade model. The results show that economies of scale and product variety have positive impact on the foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries. To study the causality relationship between the variables of economies of scale and product variety with foreign trade, the Hsiao’s Granger causality test is utilized. The Findings of this research confirm the existence of a two-way causality relationship between economies of scale and product variety with foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries.

Given the fluctuations in world oil prices and the endless supply of this underground resource, the pharmaceutical industry is one of the attractive sectors of investment in intra-industry trade. Intra-industry trade refers to the simultaneous export and import of a group of similar goods, resulting in product differentiation in imperfectly competitive markets and the existence of economies of scale.The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting intra-industry trade with selected drug trading partners for 2018-2000 using hybrid data method. According to estimates, research and development expenditures as an indicator of innovation have the greatest impact and have a positive and significant impact on trade within the Iranian pharmaceutical industry and selected trading partners, as well as trade imbalances and differences in GDP per capita. According to the Linder index, they also have a negative and significant effect, and by reducing these variables, intra-industry trade in the field of medicine will increase. On the other hand, the effect of geographical distance variable and FDI based on the effect of alternative, on the trade index within the industry has been negative and non-significant. The effectiveness of membership in the anti-fraudulent trade agreement, as a control variable, has reduced the level of trade within Iranchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s industry with selected trading partners in the field of pharmaceutical industry.