فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و یکم شماره 1 (بهار 1400)

In this research, the impact of social capital through influencing the efficiency of government expenditure is investigated using three-stage least-squares model in Iran during 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q2. The effects of exchange rate, stock market index and oil revenues on non-performing loans of public and private sectors are also examined. Results suggest that given the increased efficiency of government expenditure, social capital has a significant negative impact on non-performing loans of public and private sectors. In addition, exchange rate has a significant negative impact on banking system’s receivables from public sector and a significant negative impact on banks’ receivables from private sector. Stock market index has no significant impact on non-performing loans of both public and private sector, since stock market is not liquid enough and has low share in financing businesses. Economic growth has also no significant impact on non-performing loans of both sectors, which can be explained by the impact of improvement in business environment and individuals’ purchasing power on their ability to repay their loans. Thus, by stabilizing economy (controlling the fluctuations of exchange-rate, stock market and so forth) and by improving social capital, it is expected that efficiency of government expenditure is increased and non-performing loans of both sectors is decreased.

In the macroeconomics and international economics literature, the rate of change in domestic prices as a result of exchange rate changes is known as the degree of exchange rate pass-through. This is important because the shocks to the economy are transmitted from the exchange rate channel to the relative prices of the economy. In addition, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is affected by microeconomic and macroeconomic variables, so that the degree of exchange rate pass-through will change along with their changes. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of exchange rate on domestic prices is estimated by using the Time-varying Parameter Factor Augmented Structural VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SFAVAR-SV) and applying seasonal data from 1990 to 2018. First, the latent variable of the amount of speculative activities in the Iranian economy is modeled and estimated. The results show that the highest speculation belongs to the periods 1994 -1996, 1998-1999 and 2011- 2012. Also, the shock to the speculative activities variable in the period under study has led to an increase in inflation. The estimated exchange rate pass-through coefficient has not been constant. Historical variance decomposition analysis of exchange rate pass-through in the presence of the effective factors also shows that the almost all exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and production gaps.

Oil price shocks have an undesirable effect on financial stability and banking systems, in addition to creating uncertainty and negative effects on the macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting countries. In fact, the dependency of government spending policies on oil price movements in oil exporting countries creates feedback loops between asset prices and bank credits that could lead to an increase in vulnerability of the financial sector. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue, this study aims to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil prices on non-performing loans (NPLs), as credit risk criteria, by applying data from 18 selected banks in Iran during 2006-2017. In this regard, the relationship between variables has been estimated using Panel Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PANEL NARDL). The predictability of symmetric and asymmetric PANEL ARDL models is assessed by applying RMSE and Campbell and Thompson (2008) tests. The results show that the asymmetric model has better performance and efficiency than the symmetric model. These asymmetric effects are significant in both short-term and long-term. Based on the results, the impact of oil price on the NPLs of some banks is positive and in the others is negative and significant.

For more than a century, the causal relationship between government size and economic growth has been a challenging issue in the public sector economics. However, there is no theoretical or empirical consensus among economists on this issue. Accordingly, it seems that the best way to resolve these theoretical and empirical contradictions is experimentally investigation the causal relationship between government size and economic growth in each country. Therefore, this paper investigates the causal relationship between government size and economic growth using the Markov-Switching Granger Causality Approach in Iran over the period 1967-2017. The findings confirmed the existence of a non-linear causal relationship between government size and economic growth and showed that government size had a significant negative effect on economic growth in the form of a two-regime structure (regime Zero: 1966-2002 and regime one:1983-1987), although this negative effect was greater in regime one than in regime zero. This larger negative effect can be rooted in the fact that the share of current expenditure in total government expenditure was significantly larger in the years related to regime one (compared to regime zero). Finally, contrary to Wagnerchr('39')s law, Findings did not confirm the positive and significant effect of economic growth on government size in Iranian economy.

The knowledge-based economy is the newest pattern of production in the current era. So far, this pattern has resulted in unique achievements for a wide range of countries. This study aims to classify the provinces of Iran in terms of Knowledge-based economy. The classification of provinces based on their similarity in achieving the knowledge-based production pattern is the first step for correct and realistic planning. The same version cannot be used for different provinces. The regional knowledge-based economy index is defined in three dimensions: education, innovation, and information and communication technology, based on 15 sub-indices. The classification is based on the clustering technique, which is one of the branches of unsupervised learning. To do this, k-means and fuzzy c-means algorithms are used simultaneously to compare their results. The optimal number of clusters is calculated through the Silhouette coefficient. This coefficient also indicates the accuracy of the clustering results. Clustering based on the fuzzy c-means algorithm in 6-cluster case with a Silhouette coefficient of 0.77 is the most appropriate classification for research purposes. The results show that there is a clear discrepancy between different provinces in the context of knowledge-based economy. Tehran and Alborz are in separate clusters and are among the leading classes compared to others, while more than half of the provinces belong to backward cluster.

Regarding the bilateral relationship between financial decentralization and regional development at the national level, this study examines the relationship between regional inequality and vertical balance financial decentralization across the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the calculations are carried out in two stages: in the first stage, the Composite Index of Regional Development (CIRD) is calculated in five dimensions (macroeconomics, science and innovation, environmental sustainability, human capital and public services) by using the two-stage principal components analysis (PCA) during 2006-2016. In the second stage, the interactions between vertical balance financial decentralization and regional development are estimated using the simultaneous equations and error component two-stage least squares (EC2SLS). The results of the first stage analysis show that Tehran province is at the highest level of development, and Sistan and Baluchestan province is at the lowest level of development, and these two provinces practically reflect the wide inequality in the provinces of Iran. In addition, the highest regional inequality is related to the dimensions of science, innovation and human capital. The results of the second stage indicate that the effect of vertical balance financial decentralization on negative regional development is significant and negative, meaning that if provinces spend based on their income, a slight decrease in provincial development has it Because provinces play lesser role in determining tax rates and bases, less developed provinces are not able to generate sufficient revenue to cover their provincial expenditures. Financial decentralization also increases with an increase in regional development, meaning that provinces with different levels of development are likely to have different tendencies toward the quality and quantity of public goods.

Regulation is one of the important socioeconomic tasks of governments. Regulation literature focuses on government intervention in the markets and determination of structure and the rules governing it in order to regulate the production and distribution of commodities. The commodity exchange is one of the leading regulatory bodies, which conventionally results in regulating commodities market by providing a convenient, transparent, and observable trading system. The advantage of commodities exchange is the presence of regulatory and supervisory bodies by which all producers, consumers, and traders enjoy the benefits of commodity regulation, but the institutional barriers to competitiveness can, however, prevent the regulation from being effective on prices. This study aims to test the effects of regulating the listed commodities in Iran Mercantile Exchange on commodity price fluctuations. To this end, price movements of 20 commodities traded on Iran Mercantile Exchange are compared with 20 ones not listed in Iran Mercantile Exchange using their coefficient of variation (CV) and Propensity Score Matching method. According to the results, the supply of commodities on the Iran Mercantile Exchange has led to an increase in their price fluctuations compared to similar off-exchange ones. In other words, trading commodities on Iran Mercantile Exchange has not prevented price fluctuations because the institutional barriers to competitiveness affect regulatory facilitation and cause its ineffectiveness.