نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 19 (زمستان 1399)

Sporting events are one of the most notable phenomena in the world that are related to the international status of countries and show the level of development of countries and indicate the status of many indicators in countries, so ensuring the security of these events is a very important concern. With the change of interests and tastes of the audience and the development of technologies, the future of the security of sporting events are faced with many uncertainties. The intuitive logic approach (Peter Schwartz's eight-step method) has been used for screenwriting. Data collection tools included a systematic review of resources, interviews with experts, holding an expert panel and Delphi Online, and MigMac software and script wizard, as well as expert analysis, were used to analyze the data. In the first step, seven Propulsion include: disciplinary-security management of sporting events, human resource management, and preparedness of executive agents of events, infrastructure and security standards, new security technologies, monitoring and regulation of sporting events, coordination, and communication of responsible organizations, the establishment of command and control center operations and the appointment of club security officers were identified. Using Mick Mac software, structural analysis was performed and with the help of the Delphi process, after determining the uncertainties, the scenarios were identified and extracted as follows: a) Spontaneous security scenario b) Rifle security scenario C) Cemetery security scenario. These scenarios show that the police, as an important part of the armed forces, are responsible for the order and security of society.

Cooperation and alliances between countries are formed mostly on the basis of common interests, interests and enemies. One of the important factors in the convergence between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Zionist regime is the confrontation with the influence and power of the Islamic Republic in the region. In fact, these collaborations have been formed to counter a common threat called Iran. One of the most important consequences of their convergence on the country's security environment is the provision of defense cooperation for destabilizing, terrorist and subversive actions by the Zionists. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to "identify and enumerate possible defense cooperation between the Zionist regime, Saudi Arabia and the UAE against the Islamic Republic of Iran." In terms of the type of research, this research is an application that has been done based on screenwriting. To achieve this goal, trends, actors, drivers and uncertainties affecting cooperation between them were studied. Based on the overlap of two key uncertainties, "US regional policy and military-security movements by regional and trans-regional actors," four scenarios were developed for possible cooperation between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Zionist regime. These scenarios were evaluated from the point of view of experts and experts. Finally, scenario number three (West Asia region; relatively stable regions) is the most desirable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran and scenario number one (West Asia region, stressful regions) is the most probable. Scenarios were selected.

The innovation management process still lacks the methodological foundations to deal with the turbulent and complex conditions of the future in various fields. One of the new and powerful methods for companies in this situation is scenario-based planning, using scenario planning in companies in the process of innovation management, to face the complex situation of businesses in the future and to predict market trends and information technology, identify and interpret alternative futures, Identifying weak signals and entering new markets is useful and necessary. Therefore, the present study intends to use the capacities and potentials of scenario planning in order to promote and improve innovation management. In the meantime, the qualitative approach and intuitive logic of scenario planning is very effective and efficient for managing innovation. The method of this research is case-contextual and strategically has a qualitative approach and according to the purpose, it is a fundamental research. A combination of documentary methods (library studies) and interviews with experts have been used to collect data. The study population is information technology companies and purposive sampling method has been used. In order to analyze the data, the method of "Grounded Theory" with Glaser "classical design" approach has been used. The product of data analysis in three stages of open, pivotal and selective coding, resulted in the identification of components in the form of an advanced scenario planning method for innovation management that provides valuable insights and knowledge for decision makers and managers.

This study has aimed to provide promotion strategies of hope for the future among Staff of a military organization. In this regard, in the first step, internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (Opportunities and threats) influencing hope for the future of staff has identified by initial review in the organization units. Then, these factors were reviewed and confirmed based on the opinions of research experts (including experts in the fields of psychology and sociology, as well as commanders and strategic managers of a military organization). Next, expert-based questionnaires were prepared based on the identified factors and distributed among the expert team to determine the score of each factor. In the next step, based on the opinions of experts, the score and weight of each factor were determined and the internal factor evaluation (IFE) and external factor evaluation (EFE) matrices were adjusted. Also, based on the calculated weighted score, the strategic position of organization in relation to the hope for the future of staff was determined and the gap between the current and desired situation was identified. Finally, based on the SWOT model, strategies for promoting hope for the future were developed. At the end, 12 strategies to promote hope for the future of staff were presented. Also, executive proposals for each strategy were presented separately.

Climate is one of the factors that affect military plans, tactics and doctrines, command, troop selection, military equipment, clothing, readiness, maintenance, construction, and support. One of the concerns of battlefield commanders for long-term planning in the future is awareness of the likelihood of occurrence and the impact of climate elements on military operations. To assess the probability of occurrence and the impact of climatic elements in the planning of future military operations in the Khuzestan region, eight synoptic stations in the region were selected that had a statistical period of more than 30 years. Climatic data related to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, cloudiness, field of view, rain and snow were received from the Meteorological Organization. Then the thresholds of climatic elements affecting military operations were determined and the probabilities of occurrence of parameters affecting military operations were calculated. The results showed that most desirable military climate in Khuzestan is related to winter and autumn seasons. In winter, the military climate index in Khuzestan region varies between 13.5 to 26 percent and the highest value with more than 20 percent in Omidieh, Abadan and Dezful stations and the lowest with less than 15 percent is related to Ramhormoz station. The lowest level of desirability of the military climate in Khuzestan is related to summer and spring seasons. In summer, the military climate index in Khuzestan region varies between 35.5 to 47%, which in Abadan, Ahvaz, Bostan, Bandar Mahshahr and Omidieh stations, the index is more than 41% and there are unfavorable conditions for military activities. Finally, considering the possible future climate change in the patterns of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc. in the Khuzestan region, it is predicted that the probability of occurrence and the impact of weather hazards such as heat waves, torrential rains, military tensions with Iraq over Dust, the activation of ethnic and religious divisions due to the loss of food security, migration and emptying of the country's borders, and the cost of providing security for the country's military forces, etc., will increase and affect future military operations more than before.

Foresight field tries to take the organization, society and country towards its vision and preferred futures, by use of systematic, logical, participatory approach and relying on comprehensive and strategic management of resources and capacities having a forward looking to the future, based on three pillars including futures studies, policy-making and strategic planning. Review of researches conducted in this field is crucial for managers and researchers to achieve a systematic understanding of research activities to optimize management of future researches in the foresight and strategic foresight field. A review in Scientometrics literature emphasizes on the importance and necessity of Scientometrics in various scientific fields. Accordingly, the study of the conceptual network of researches in foresight and strategic foresight is also of a great importance. This Scientometrics study includes 1733 articles extracted from ScienceDirect database as input data of VOSviewer software to analyze the knowledge map and conceptual research network of strategic foresight and foresight researches and the trend of research products. The results show high co-citations between foresight and strategic foresight, and 10 keywords as the frequent cited and referred keywords in papers published in 1996 to 2020. Scientometrics research through citation analysis, effectively examines research topics and fields, researchers and keywords in the form of clusters whose results can be considered by managers and researchers for better management of future researches in this field. To take. This Scientometrics study provides a broad understanding of the status que of researches in the field of strategic foresight.