فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 70 (پاییز 1400)

The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize export target markets for Iran’s natural gas over a 20-year perspective for the period 2020-2040, using the numerical taxonomy method. In this method we use the indicators of countries' distance from Iran, per capita income, per capita consumption of natural gas and economic growth. The results of this study show that the regions of the Middle East, OECD Europe, Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia and Non-OECD Asia are in order the best target markets for Iranian natural gas.

The production and supply of natural gas in Iran is monopolized in the hands of the Ministry of Petroleum and prices are set by administrative decisions. However, given that gas based   power plants  use it as an input to meet the needs of end users of electricity, optimal price of natural gas is related to the final price of electricity.  We use time series data for the period 1989 to 2016 to estimate the price elasticity of gas demand.   We first estimate the price elasticity of gas demand. We then calculate the efficiency of natural gas production at scale and calculate the final cost of the natural gas produced. We then calculate the coded price of gas delivered to power plants. The actual cost of supplying one cubic meter of natural gas to power plants in 2015 was 800 Rials. The natural gas prices based on estimated Ramsey price for the years 2015 and 2016 for the gas delivered to the power plants are 8589.71 and 9377.91 Rials per cubic meter respectively. We can thus conclude that current administrative prices for natural gas in the power plants sector are not optimal.

Natural gas prices do not follow the normal free market criteria where prices are established by the intersection of independent demand and supply curves.  As a strategic good that is traded between major suppliers (normally sovereign countries) and market monopoly or oligopolies in the importing countries.  One method that has been agreed between sellers and buyers is the buy back mechanism used in many long term contracts.  This pricing method is designed to provide confidence for both consumer and producer that they are getting a fair price and to increase competitiveness with alternative fuels and reduce the costs of natural gas transmission from producing countries to target markets. In this study, we use the market value of gas in the target countries of the European export market, and deduct transit and transmission costs to arrive at the optimal price of potential Iranian gas exports to Europe at the Bazargan border with Turkey has been calculated as $ 300 per thousand cubic meters. The comparison of the calculated prices with the current export prices of Iranian gas to Turkey and Iraq reveals that the use of netback pricing method for the European export market is fully justified.  Iranian access to the European gas market, however, in addition to economic factors is influenced by the state of political relations between Iran and European countries.

In the present paper we study the effect of oil prices on the financial development index based on the banking network and the stock market for the period 1357-1396 by using the Markov Switching Model. The results show that if the financial development based on the stock market is in a low regime, the increase in oil prices is not a curse for financial development, with no significant effect either positive or negative while if it is  in a high regime, then oil income acts as a curse and reduces the financial development of the stock market. If the financial development index is in the middle regime, the increase in oil prices will not be a curse and will not reduce bank financial development. Also, the variables of trade openness and economic growth have different effects depending on the type of financial development regime. According to the research results, the increase in oil prices and revenues does not always lead to a decrease in the country’s financial development. The impact depends on the stability and speed of financial development.

Iran is considered as one of the biggest burners of associated gas. Due to the importance of reducing the emission of pollutants from associated gas in flare systems, in this study we use advanced decision-making methods to select the optimal technologies for recycling associated gases that are currently burnt. The model has three objective functions, including minimum return on investment and maximum reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and qualitative target functions considering a combination of sustainable development criteria. In the developed model, we assess important flared gas recovery technologies including NGL units, gas injection into pipeline, LNG units, GTL refinery units, production of gas hydrates (NGH), CNG units, injection of gas into reservoirs to increase oil production ( EOR), electricity generation using gas turbines, steam turbines and combined cycle and fresh water production. Our sample includes five oil wells in an oil region in southern Iran. The results show that in the optimal case, the investment undetakes pays for itself in 1.1 years and produces a reduction of 810740 tons of carbon dioxide per year.

The aim of this study is to provide a model for setting human resources expectations and priorities of the National Iranian Oil Company welfare unit, utilizing a matrix pattern of four Quality Function Deployment (QFD) criteria. This research was conducted to improve the quality engineering of the welfare system. The participants in the study were experts in the welfare department of the Oil Company who formed a qualitative statistical sample. The sample of fifteen experts was found to meet thea qualitative research standards of adequacy and saturation.  The sample was extracted using welfare indices and participants were asked to complete an appropriate questionnaire. Reliability of Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory questionnaires were more than 0.7 and factor validity and AVE scores were in the valid range. The study identified 18 factors that depending on the type of relationship in their respective classification, have a positive or negative (strong and moderate) impact on human resource expectations.

In this study, we use the world oil price index to assess the impact of OPEC oil price volatility on companies included on the list of the fifty most active stocks on the Tehran Stock Exchange. We use a linear model with twenty dependent variables to measure the impact of oil price fluctuations, as the independent variable, for the period 2010 to 2016. We notice that rising oil prices are associated with increasing share of groups such as multi-family housing construction, real estate, chemicals, investment funds and conglomerates while declining prices are associated with increasing share of  companies active in pharmaceuticals and metal products. It is therefore useful for the Tehran Stock Exchange to reflect the values of OPEC oil index on its website.

A large part of investments, design and planning in the gas industry depends on the timely receipt of gas bills. Accordingly, gas companies as the main body of distribution, sale and after-sales services, assign an important role to timely receipt of gas bills. In this connection the Lorestan Gas Company faces a serious problem of non-payment of its bills by different categories of users. It thus needs to adopt new and practical methods for timely and adequate payment of gas bills. The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize effective and practical methods for optimal collection of gas bills from household, commercial and industrial customers in Lorestan province. This research was conducted in the field using a questionnaire. Questionnaires were distributed among a carefully selected representative sample through use of random cluster sampling. The questionnaire included the four methods of punishment, incentives, staff skills and innovation for increasing receipts. The completed questionnaires were analyzed in order to suggest optimal methods for increasing payments against gas bills for household, commercial and industrial users.