نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال سی و دوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 124، بهار 1400)

The purpose of this study is to provide a model for the market for the sale of new goods using the one-to-one marketing method. Since in applied research, the main goal is not only scientific discovery, but also to test and study the application of knowledge, so the method of this research is applied in terms of purpose and has been done by exploratory method. The data collection method is mixed (quantitative and qualitative) and the data collection tool is interviews with experts by conducting specialized interviews in Delphi method and a questionnaire. Therefore, 375 people from the market of selling new goods by one-to-one marketing method (in the quantitative section) and 17 experts and specialists in this field (in the qualitative section) participated in this research. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential methods through SPSS 16 and Smart PLS software. After conducting research, the results showed that: systematicity, technology orientation, design orientation, market orientation, resource use, the basis of efforts for new goods, conceptualization of new goods, and finally new product management; Under the heading of market components of selling new goods by one-to-one marketing method; Approved. Model fit tests showed the validity of the model.

Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran. The present study identified the most important factors affecting the future of the book publishing industry in Iran using the future studies approach. This was an applied study employing a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Participants were 16 experts specialized in the publishing domain and achieved consensus over the 24 identified driving forces during two courses of implementation of the Delphi technique. The key future driving forces of the publishing industry in Iran were classified into six categories, with economic sanctions and the information and communication technology ranking the highest in terms of importance. Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran. The present study identified the most important factors affecting the future of the book publishing industry in Iran using the future studies approach. This was an applied study employing a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Participants were 16 experts specialized in the publishing domain and achieved consensus over the 24 identified driving forces during two courses of implementation of the Delphi technique. The key future driving forces of the publishing industry in Iran were classified into six categories, with economic sanctions and the information and communication technology ranking the highest in terms of importance.

In recent years, with the crystallization of a knowledge-based economy, the birth of student companies for the synergy between science and wealth, the development of high-value new technologies and its commercialization in the direction of the growth of the growing economy. It had it. The achievement of the goals set for the knowledge society companies will not be achieved except by designing and implementing long-term and effective strategies. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to identify the future strategies of commercialization of modern technologies in start-up knowledge-based companies and their ranking based on descriptive-exploratory studies and applied approach. The statistical population of the study consists of academic experts and knowledge managers active in the emerging technology companies in the field of information technology. The statistical sample was selected through a purposeful judiciary method of 15 people. Data collection was done using library and field methods (semi-structured interview with experts and expert questionnaire). To analyze the data in the qualitative stage, the method of the topic analysis and in the quantitative phase, a multi-criteria decision making approach is used with the method of gray number theory. Finally, the results of the topic analysis led to identifying five main strategies and 16 sub-strategies, and based on quantitative results, the priority of commercialization strategies included effective management of intellectual property rights, improving the relationship of knowledge-based enterprises with industry, reforming the management system in companies Nurture, culture, and increase the effectiveness of the role of sovereignty of the state.

This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the formation of ground warfare in the future in the problem of the tallest region of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, a special meeting of 38 ground-based field professors grouped in 11 expert groups was held and an interview was held with them. The results were then returned to the experts and re-approved. Then, using qualitative analysis method, data analysis was performed and the most problematic region of the country was identified for possible future ground warfare in the east and south east of the country. There are also trends in the formation of such a war in the region, the increasing presence of supranational powers including the United States and NATO, the intensification of the movements of the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia in Balochistan, Pakistan and Iran, the re-formation of fake identity groups in Afghanistan, and North of Pakistan and increasing unreliability of the central government and excessive ethnicity in the border provinces of Iran, and key actors include the transatlantic forces of the United States, NATO and the Zionist regime, and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, ISIS and new forms of fake identity groups, hypocrites and Pakistani-Taliban Balochistan Independence Groups and local terrorists RAdykalysm are ethnic and Wahhabism.

Supply chain sustainability has become one of the most important issues in today's business environment and plays a very important role in increasing competitiveness. Improving sustainability in supply chains is one of the strategic objectives in the current business. Therefore, it is essential to assess the sustainability performance of the newly implemented management strategies.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a model for assessing the sustainability performance of LARG supply chain management practices in the automotive supply chain using the dynamics system.

first, LARG supply chain management practices were identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing industry experts and were prioritized using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy analysis network process and were presented as an integrated approach to LARG supply chain management practices. Finally, the dynamic system has been used to assess the dynamics of LARG supply chain management practices and their impact on sustainable performance in the supply chain.

The research findings show that the scenarios of improvement in in the implementation of total quality management (TQM) and just in time (JIT) lead to a more sustainable supply chain. The results of these scenarios show sustainability improvement in the supply chain.

The results show that lean strategy is a very important for achieving sustainability in the supply chain. The proposed model helps industry managers and decision makers to identify the results achieved from implementing LARG supply chain management practices and improving effective practices on sustainability in the supply chain by adopting policies.

Drug policy-making requires proper estimates of drug-related trends. This reveals the necessity of paying attention to future research in this field. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the future of the approaches of the Police against Drugs in Khorasan Razavi province. This research is a mixed research of documentary and survey method. Library studies and questionnaires and Delphi techniques were used to collect the data. The statistical population of the present study is all managers, deputies, senior experts and experts of police in Khorasan Razavi province, who are either decision makers or activists in this field, as well as officials of the Presidential Counter Narcotics Headquarters in the said province. Are people. The purpose of this study was to obtain the opinions of 13 experts. In the present study, Delphi and scenario-based methods were used among the future research methods and according to the nature of the research. They were first identified using the Delphi-uncertainty approach that the drug police will face in the future. Then, two key uncertainties are identified and expressed on the basis of binary scenario scenarios.

In the present study, we have used the Peter Schwartz scenariobulding method to identify digital banking service scenarios. This is done with the help of methods of Thematic Analysis, Analytical matrix of network effects, and uncertainty and narrative. And the scenario method is used as a workflow connection loop for all of these methods. Identification of “driving forces" and "key factors" was performed using qualitative method, thematic network analysis, and with the help of QSR NVIVO 10 software. As a result of the macro and micro environment scans at the three levels of 'community context', 'business environment' and 'organizational environment', a total of 86 variables (driving forces and key factors) have been identified related to the future of digital banking services. Of the 86 variables obtained in the previous step, 50 variables were designated as the input of the effects network and uncertainties. The Impact network and Uncertainty, which is an analytical matrix, enables the positioning of identified elements in terms of the degree of uncertainty and significance (potential impacts) that are identified as critical uncertainties as a result of 'digital service quality' and 'digital lifestyle'. They affect the future space, and based on these two critical uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated: technological governance; technological fascination; technological tragedy and technological backwardness, with emphasis on the structure of each scenario.

This paper, based on upper echelons theory, studies earnings management behavior based on the psychological of individuals. This theory emphasizes that the decisions of senior executives of the organization are strongly influenced by their individual characteristics. As a result, the performance of the organization also depends on the individual characteristics, including the psychological characteristics of its managers. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the psychological characteristics of people's decision making in earnings management. The sample consisted of 259 accounting experts, accounting chiefs and financial managers of listed companies. The research method was survey and the data were collected by questionnaire. Data analysis and hypothesis testing are performed on the basis of structural equations. Evidence from this study shows that negative moods have a significant and positive effect on both types of earnings management behaviors, namely opportunistic and efficient earnings management. But positive moods have only a significant effect on opportunistic earnings management and have no significant effect on efficient earnings management. Also, the findings of this study show that sensation- seeking only has a significant effect on efficient earnings management and not on opportunistic earnings management. Finally, the results of this study confirm that managers with a high Intention to gambling They are more sentiment to earnings management than both an efficient and opportunistic approach.

Given the appropriate economic-geographical opportunities of the country and earning foreign currency from the medical tourism industry, the use of these opportunities requires a proper and futurist roadmap, in order to provide the necessary solutions to attract medical tourists.

The present study aims to provide a model for managing attract of medical tourism in the country, in order to take advantage of the future opportunities of this industry.

In this study, the strategy of Grounded theory and systematic design of Strauss/Corbin were used. Theoretical sampling was used to collect information, and to achieve theoretical saturation, 18 semi-structured interviews were conducted with specialist physicians and health tourism executives. For the validity and reliability, the research method was used by the members, participation, triangulation and retesting method. The key points of the interviews were analyzed during the three stages of open, axial and selective coding and Delphi method was used to prioritize them.

Factors affecting the attraction of health tourists in the country were extracted with 16 categories and 51 concepts. The priority of the constructive factors of the model was determined using Delphi method and the opinion of experts in 2 steps and converged with standard deviation less than 0.05.

The results showed that the four categories of planning, financial condition, quality of medical services, and technical and specialized forces are in the highest priority, respectively, and should be the focus of future plans of the country's tourism attraction management.

In a complex and dynamic organizational environment, talent management is the key to the success of organizations and leads to sustainable growth, but it has become one of the fundamental challenges of HRM.

This study aims to provide a general model of talent management in the Ministry of Sports and Youth.

The research method was mixed qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative information was identified using Delphi technique and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with 15 experts, 11 Dimensions and 85 indicators. Finally, a questionnaire of 85 talent management questions was set for the quantitative part and according to the size of the population, 280 questionnaires were analyzed using Cochran's formula using structural equation modeling with PLS2 and SPSS20 software.

The results of exploratory factor analysis identified and confirmed 11 dimensions and 83 indicators. In the ranking of dimensions, the dimensions of preservation, information and communication and performance were ranked first to third, respectively. Among the indicators, compensation, technology, job satisfaction, performance appraisal, succession planning, reverence, transfer of experiences, futurism, meritocracy, transparency of strategic goals and supportive laws were ranked highest in each dimension of talent management. The goodness of fit index was calculated to be 0.76, which indicates that the overall fit of the model is appropriate.

Talent management is very important for the staff of the Ministry of Sports and Youth and should also be important for the organization because it plays a key role in achieving the success of the organization and sustainable development.