فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 87 (تابستان 1400)

This article examines the theory of network-based economics (two-sided markets) and considers payment cards in Iran as a case study. Based on the monthly data of the Central Bank of Iran and the payment cards of electronic networks in Iran (SHAPARAK) from Dec. 2014 to March 2019, demand elasticity and monopoly power have been estimated. The results show that the elasticity of the cardholder and the card acquirer with respect to the interchange fee rate is 0.55 and nearly 1 (1.04), respectively. These results show that the cardholders have smaller elasticity to interchange fee compared to acquirer of payment cards. The estimated market power indicates that the payment card network in Iran is highly monopolistic. The payment card platform in Iran (SHAPARAK) does not impose its market power on the buyer side (card holders) and subsidizes them in order to create balance in transactions, but this platform impose exclusive power on merchant side (card acquirer) of payment cards. With this policy, card holders are attracted to the market which increase trading on the platform and platform profits. In general, on the buyer side of Iran payment card we have P = MC but on the merchant side P> MC. Therefore, the regulatory authorities in Iran must regulate SHAPARAK market power.

The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem in Iran's economy. In this respect, the relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and speculation in the foreign exchange market, and also, the central bank's role in directing liquidity between them to affect the macroeconomic indicators are important. The current study evaluates this subject for 1988–2018 using a system of simultaneous equations and the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The findings indicate that there has been a significant negative relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and foreign exchange speculation. The stock market and bank deposits have had a significant positive effect on investment and GDP, and in contrast, foreign exchange speculation has shown a significant negative impact. Conversely, bank deposits have negatively impacted the consumer price index (CPI), whereas foreign exchange speculation has shown a substantial direct effect. Finally, despite the existence of a significant negative relationship between three financial markets in the Iranian economy confirmed by the obtained results, the central bank has forfeited a considerable portion of its potential effectiveness in directing liquidity between parallel financial markets to affect nominal and real economic indicators due to interest rate repression.

Regional development policy based on the existing capacities of knowledge and innovation in the regions is one of the neglected issues in Iran's development policy. At present, there is no serious difference in providing solutions for different provinces, while the provinces of the country are different both in terms of the level of knowledge and innovation and its absorption capacity. In this research, based on the review of existing studies and new principles of measuring regional innovation capacity, a suitable framework for measuring innovation capacity is presented and accordingly, the innovation capacity of the country's provinces is measured. Results showed that in proportion to the decrease or increase in the level of development of regions, the innovation capacity of regions also increases or decreases. Innovation capacity has also decreased in proportion to the increasing geographical distance from the center of the country. Hence, Sistan and Baluchestan province has the lowest level of innovation capacity and provinces around Tehran such as Semnan, Karaj, Qazvin and Qom, have relatively high levels of innovation capacity. Nevertheless, Ilam and Bushehr provinces are in the first to fifth place among 31 provinces in terms of innovation capacity due to two important factors: 1. Small population and 2. Existence of oil and gas industries.

Since moral hazard in behaviors of banking system may jeopardize efficiency of debt mechanisms to fund rising, it is important to examine the empirical and theoretical evidences of moral hazard in the Iranian banking system. Risky behavior of banking system is caused by the asymmetric information problems between creditors and central bank. This paper considers the simultaneous effects between changing risk and leverage that justifies existence of moral hazard in the Iranian banking system. To do so, we use dynamic panel data model for the period 2006-2019 in Iranian banking system. According to the obtained results, there is a significant positive relationship between the level of risk and leverage. This relationship implies the existence of moral hazard that can be caused unsuccessfully performance of central bank in supervision and supporting in the banking system.

According to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theory, besides labor force and capital other production factors such as energy and indicators of environment quality may affect exporting potentials of goods and services in an economy. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to explore the effects of the main determinants, particularly carbon dioxide emission intensity, which is a proxy for environment quality, on the net exports of the selected manufacturing products (auto parts and petrochemical products) between Iran and its major trading partners. Basically, an econometric model for Iran’s net exports is applied to these trading products specifying two panel regression equations using the data of 21 Iran’s partners over 2000-2019. Empirical results have been obtained by estimating two regression equations of auto parts and petrochemical products net exports using panel GLS method. Based on the empirical results, there is a significant and negative effect of the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner on net exports of auto parts, which implies a decrease in the trade deficit of these products. In contrast, the results show that the environmental quality significantly and negatively affects the net exports of the petrochemical products implying a rise in the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner, which decreases Iran’s net exports of the petrochemical products.

In recent decades, the effect of financial development on real sector growth has been discussed from different aspects. This paper focuses on financial structure and explains the role of bank-based and market-based financial structures on economic growth by classifying the literature. Using the FMOLS method for the period 1979-2016, the effects of financial structure and banking structure on per capita GDP and sectors’ growth (agriculture, industry, and services) in Iran are estimated. Empirical findings indicate that discriminating policies and bias in financial structure in favor of a specific sector has a negative effect on real sector growth, especially agriculture and industry. Therefore, in support of the design of a balanced financial structure, it is recommended that the state should avoid any intervention or discrimination in favor of a specific sector. In the case of banking structure, the findings show that increasing the financial strength of banks encourages economic growth.

The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using  Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime of the stock market index and has a negative and significant impact in the low and medium regimes. The growth of oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on all stock market index regimes. Also, in the high regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will lead to a decrease in the stock market index, and on the contrary, in the low regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will increase the stock market index. In the high regime of the stock market index, the coronavirus outbreak can lead to a decrease in the stock market index and the outflow of capital from the stock market and transfer to other parallel markets such as currency and housing can occur, and speculation increases.