نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 22 (پاییز 1400)

The fourth wave of corporate foresight that is called "open foresight"; is an approach that seeks to understand, anticipate and shape future changes through broad social interactions and knowledge sharing between internal and external stakeholders. However, open foresight literature is at the development stage. So the purpose of this article is to deep understanding and cognition the nature of open foresight in the form of three axes of "why, what and how". This research has been conducted by systematic literature review and summarizing articles indexed in valid international scientific databases in the interval (2000-2020). Research findings show that "why" open foresight is explained in two topics of environmental drivers and supportive theoretical perspectives. Out of box thinking, synergy of resources, external knowledge absorption, collaborative knowledge management, inspiration for open innovation and open vision represent "what" open foresight. The process of open foresight includes three stages: pre-foresight, foresight and post-foresight; and requires individual, team and organizational preconditions. In addition, the role of the strategist is very important for trust building, facilitating information flow, coordinating and evaluating programs. This research, with systematic literature review, offers a deep insight into "why, what and how" open foresight; and while developing open foresight theory, opens a new window for future researchers.

The Middle East is in chaos. This chaos has faced the Middle East with an increasing density of national, regional and international crises. These crises have posed numerous geopolitical challenges to convergence and, consequently, to the decline of regional power. This underscores the need and importance of providing a picture of the future of these challenges in order to address the potential consequences. Given this fundamental necessity, this study seeks to answer the central question of what are the possible future scenarios for Middle East regional order in the 2030 horizon? This research, which is exploratory in nature, has adopted a ten-step process in order to answer this question with a futuristic approach and its techniques such as screenwriting. This method has significant advantages by using elite opinions in order to validate more scenarios and identify possible futures. The most important finding of the study, which is most in line with the reality of the Middle East regional order in 2030, is the increase in the intervention of world powers, as well as increasing tensions and conflicts among the governments of the Middle East.

Rapid access to spatial information is one of the most fundamental pillars of present and future operations. In this case, the issue of navigation and awareness of the military geography of the area of ​​operation is one of the challenges of commanders and managers at different levels of the organization during combat. Web-GIS system is a powerful tool for planning and scheduling any spatial operation and provides many capabilities. Most of the ground attacks are in suburban and border areas, and there are not many defined access routes, So It is necessary to create routing system to investigate transportation routes in this type of areas. This research tries to create a comprehensive Web-GIS system, in a comprehensive network of command and control in a high security user environment, to provide the required spatial information of the battlefield and the routing process to plan future operations, Performed in accordance with the desired parameters. The input information of the router system is processed using the triangulation technique and the appropriate cost function in the preprocessing study, which reduces the data volume and increases the processing speed. Using PostgreSQL database, Apache web server and open source plugins, this system forms a public utility suite. We also tried to make the user interface user-friendly and contain enough tools. Using Web-GIS routing system, the system will play a key role in battlefield positioning, access to camp maps and the creation of a comprehensive offline system, logistics management, command and control of future military operations.

The present study was conducted to identify and validate the dimensions, components and indicators of the strategic wargaming model in the Army of Iran. For this purpose, a mixed research based on exploratory-causal approach was used. We provided the model by literature review and semi-structured interview as well as validated it by an 87-item questionnaire. 12 experts were selected in the field of wargaming at the Iranian Armed Forces with purposive sampling and the interview was continued until theoretical saturation. In addition, 46 commanders and deputies of the Armed Forces and military universities (having at least a master's degree, being familiar with the wargaming and having a strategic 18-position) were selected to complete the questionnaire. Validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by convergent and diagnostic method and its reliability was calculated by composite reliability and Cronbach's Alpha. Qualitative data were analyzed by thematic analysis and quantitative data were investigated by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in Smart-PLS 3 software. The results demonstrated that the strategic wargaming model was consisted of three dimensions "wargaming design", "wargaming implementation" and "wargaming evaluation", 18 components and 87 indicators. Furthermore, the findings of CFA showed that the dimensions, components and indicators supported the strategic wargaming model well.

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei (as), has summarized the plans of global arrogance against the Iranian nation in three sentences: first: psychological warfare, second: economic warfare, and third: countering scientific progress and authority; Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to formulate possible scenarios of enemy psychological operations against human capital. The present research is an applied research in terms of purpose and a part of future exploratory research in terms of method, which has been done by screenwriting method. In this study, preliminary data were collected using literature review and expert meetings. Utilizing the expertise of experts from among the multitude of factors and impulses affecting psychological operations against AJA; Identification and framework of scenarios are explained. The statistical population of the study was a leadership group of 10 talented people and a group of experts with a talented 6 people collaborated in developing the scenarios. Using Peter Schwartz's model framework and Roland Berger quantification methods, based on the ranking of key factors and drivers identified based on importance and uncertainty by experts, finally two factors of cohesion between the army and the armed forces (General Staff, IRGC) , NAJA and the Ministry of Defense), creating disruption in religious, revolutionary and national beliefs (de-identification) gained a higher rank, which, being placed in the axes of a matrix, formed the basis for the formation of four scenarios with the titles; Divisiveness, defeat of will, absorption and transformation, deception and sedition.

The implementation of joint operations will increase the overall demand and provide the necessary measures and action in the future. The planning and implementation of joint operations is the result of the integration of the combat capabilities of the four AJA forces, which are completely different in terms of organizational culture, management, operational space and specialized environment, and coordination between them is necessary in carrying out different operations. This research is of applied development type and its method is case-context. The statistical sample size of the research is 74 people. The method of collecting field and library information is that by in-depth analysis of theoretical foundations, the factors affecting the implementation of joint operations are counted and then in the form of a questionnaire using quantitative and qualitative analysis mixed to standardize and localize these factors in the operation environment. Joint Army action has been taken. Based on the research results and using IFE and EFE tools, 103 factors (33 strengths, 20 weaknesses, 29 opportunities and 21 threats) to carry out joint operations in 6 components have been identified and measured, and finally strategies have been developed by SWOT method. Their executive priority has been determined using the QSPM method. The current situation in AJA for joint operations is in the mildly conservative quarter. Therefore, 13 strategies have been developed in order to move from an offensive position to a strong or desirable offensive position.