فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 40 (زمستان 1400)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the situation of foreign exchange market pressure and the effect of domestic and foreign variables on it and to investigate the direct intervention of the central bank in the foreign exchange market in two periods of shortage and abundance in oil revenue. For this purpose, using the VECM and quarterly data of Iran-US economy from 1990.1 to 2017.4, exchange market pressure index and central bank direct intervention index were calculated and the manner of the direct intervention of the central bank in each season in the foreign exchange market was determined. Then, using the VAR model, the effect of domestic and foreign variables on the exchange market pressure index was investigated. The results show that firstly, the predominant situation of the foreign exchange market in the period of shortage in oil revenue is appreciation in the exchange rate, and in the period of abundance in oil revenue is depreciation in the exchange rate. Secondly, the Central Bank has tried to reduce the supply surplus created in the foreign exchange market and prevent the exchange rate from depreciating during the period of abundance in oil revenues by leaning against the wind interventions and purchasing foreign exchange. Third, in the period of abundance in oil revenue compared to the period of shortage in oil revenue, the relationship among the factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations and the exchange market pressure index has decreased. Therefore, the exchange rate is expected to jump in the long run.

In this paper, we try to build a composite leading indicator to predict the business cycles of Iran. For this purpose, we consider non-oil GDP as our target variable. In the first part of this research project, Barakchian and Samaee (1398) evaluated the performance of 1590 macroeconomic time series individually in predicting the business cycles of Iran. These 1590 series were generated by 256 macroeconomic variables released by the Central Bank (including their original form of the variables and five transformations of them). Barakchian and Samaee (1398) showed that 25 time series out of all 1590 series perform the best in predicting the cycles when evaluated in terms of the criteria introduced in this literature (i.e. missed points, false alarms, late alarms, etc). In this paper, we compose these 25 time series to build a composite leading indicator which predicts the peaks and troughs of the business cycles well. Since the number of all the combinations generated by the 25 time series is too large to be computationally feasible to evaluate them, we first choose 16 time series out of these 25 series introduced by Barakchian and Samaee (1398) and then we generate all the possible combinations using these 16 series (with equal weights). This approach mounts to 65535 different combinations. Then we evaluate the performance of all these 65535 composite leading indicators in predicting the business cycles in terms of the criteria mentioned above. Our results show that a significant fraction of all these composite leading indicators perform very well: they don’t have any missed point, false alarm or late alarm. In the second part of the paper, we also take into account the time lag in releasing the data by the Central Bank. Since the main function of a composite leading indicator is to predict business cycles timely, accessing to data in real time is a major concern. So, we take this concern into account when choosing the 16 variables. In particular, the national accounts data are excluded from the data when building the composite leading indicator because of their long time lags when released by the Central Bank. Our results show that the following variables have the major role in the combination of the best composite leading indicators: price index of water, electricity and gas, imports' tax, corporate profits' tax, and the number of building permits

Considering the fact that the effects of currency shocks on the capital market can affect the behavioral patterns of different sectors of the economy; Therefore, proper understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate impact on different sectors of the economy, necessarily requires knowledge of the effects of this variable on important financial markets and how institutional factors change in these markets; For this purpose, this study aims to investigate the effects of exchange rate shock on the value of companies operating in different industries of the Tehran Stock Exchange by applying the pattern of variable parameters over time and using seasonal data during the period (2011-2018). The results of this study indicate that the value of companies operating in different industries of the Tehran Stock Exchange is affected by the exchange rate shock in proportion to the type of production and services provided in each of these companies; In addition, the response in each of the studied industries is different over time, which highlights the need to use the parameter-variable approach. Among the selected industries, the value of companies operating in the food and beverage industry has reacted positively to the currency shock in the entire period under review and in the automotive industry; Also, the value of companies operating in other industries has been affected by this currency shock over time; In the cement, lime and gypsum industry, exchange rate shock in (2011-2013) and (2018) has had positive effects on the value of companies operating in this industry and in (2014-2017) the value of companies Active in this industry has reacted negatively to exchange rate shocks.For example, the exchange rate shock in the period of 2011-2013 and 2018 has a positive effect on the value of companies active in the cement, lime and gypsum industry, while the response of these companies to exchange rate shock in the years 2014-2017, is negative.

Information asymmetry between the National Iranian Oil Company and International Oil Companies, may causes adverse selection (while contractor selection) and moral hazard (while execution of the contract) in the development contracts of oil and gas fields. Identifying the roots of moral hazards is the prelude to finding solutions to deal with distortion in contracts. in order to prevent inconsistencies in contracts, efforts should be made to align the interests and incentives of the parties to the contract, as well as reducing information asymmetries through monitoring and performance appraisal tools.In this study, using descriptive-analytical method, the findings of economics in the field of contract theory have been used to formulate a more complete contract in order to manage the moral hazard caused by information asymmetry in financing contracts for the development of oil and gas fields. To this end, the application of legal conditions capacity to reduce the client risks relevant to moral hazards caused by information asymmetry has been examined. The most important areas of information asymmetry in the contracts are technical features including basic and detail design of the project, determining the capital cost ceiling and financial resources of the project, the program of financing required funds and the program of repayment of financial resources. In many studies on the subject of comparing different contract forms in aspect of the revenue of National Iranian Oil Company, only the interests of the National Oil Company have been considered in the calculations, which has three objections. First, not paying attention to the interests of the other party in the contracts, because it would be too likely that the oil company will not accept such a contract. The second problem is that even assuming the acceptance of the National Oil Company desired contract by International Oil Company, the existence of information asymmetry between the parties will create the opportunity for the oil company to achieve the expected results of the contract. The third one is that the type of contract itself does not determine the amount of interest earned by the parties to the contract, but the terms of the contract determine the share of the parties to the field revenue. In other words, using the terms of the contract, the same financial results can be achieved from all types of contracts. Considering the above considerations, researchers should focus on the effective use of contract terms in order to manage the risks of information asymmetry in contracts and provide more benefits to the National Iranian Oil Company. In this situation, regardless of which model is chosen for the contract, the inclusion of the desired legal conditions can lead to satisfactory results of the contract. Purposeful and effective application of contract terms in order to reduce conflicts of interest and harmonize the interests of the parties, determine the desired performance indicators in the contract, provide efficient tools to control and monitor the performance of the contractor and defer payment in compensation are the main risk management strategies of the National Iranian Oil Company. At the same time, upgrading the technical and managerial capacity of the National Iranian Oil Company and using the advice of reputable oil companies can reduce information asymmetry in oil and gas development financing contracts in the country and consequently reduce the resulting risks.

Despite significant capacities and potentials, Iran has performed differently in attracting investors and economic actors in recent decades, and if this situation continues, we will see more economic distance with other developed countries in the future. After examining the economic factors affecting private investment in the Iranian economy, using a new and efficient method called DMA, to predict the factors affecting investment in order to accurately identify how the investment responds to changes in these variables during the years 1397-1380. Evaluate and determine which variable (or variables) has been the most influential factor on private sector investment at any point in time in order to provide appropriate policy recommendations to guide economic variables to increase private investment. The results show that the presence of the inflation variable after 2009 is less than 0.5, the probability of the presence of the liquidity variable in 1996 and 1997 is much higher than other years, the probability of the presence of the variable government expenditure from 1389 onwards is high, the GDP variable in Most years are present with high probability in investment forecasting. With the realization of the exchange rate in the years 92-97, the presence of the exchange rate variable is more probable. The probability of the presence of the variable of bank facilities from 1390 onwards is higher. Business is very low in the years under review.The calculations show that in each of the time horizons and considering the values of the transfer matrix, which indicates the probability of the presence of each of the research variables in each time period, the variables present in the best investment forecasting model can change in each period. . In addition, the probability of the presence of each of the variables, which can be calculated based on the presented figures, has different values in each section. This study, in which investment is predicted using a dynamic method and shows how much each variable in each section describes the investment values, shows the nonlinear relationships between the model variables.If these models have acceptable values of good fit indices in different modes, this model is suitable for predicting the desired variable.

Most populous cities in the world are currently facing the air pollution problem, and Iran is no exception. Air pollution in many megacities of Iran has reached a dangerous level so that the PM2.5 concentration in metropolises is three times the national standard and most of this contamination originates from cars and industry. Isfahan is the third most populated city in Iran and its pollution is a leading cause of many diseases and deaths along with economic problems every year. Traffic parameter as key factor that play a very important role in PM2.5 pollutant emitted should be included as an important variable in air pollution modeling.Since one of the most important sources of air pollution is mobile sources, this paper tries to estimate the health effects and economic costs of PM2.5 concentration emitted by transportation in the urban network of Isfahan during 2018-2019. So In this study, we focus on the health endpoints assessment caused by the emission of motor vehicles pollutants in Isfahan.In this regard we estimate the concentration of pollution caused by vehicles by using the results of the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). A statistical model are used to estimate the share of traffic from PM2.5 concentrations to calculate road transport -related air pollution in Isfahan. We also calculate the spatial distribution of pollution in Isfahan using ArcGIS. Then, the health impacts of air pollution caused by motor vehicles are assessed using the AirQ+. This can estimate long-term natural mortality due to all natural causes and other mortality due to Ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and Lung cancer. Damages and economic costs of these health impacts are finally estimated by value of a statistical life and mortality rate approach. Value of a statistical life (VOSL) is a preferred method, calculated using the willingness to pay and means the willingness to pay of people in the community for the marginal reduction in mortality risk. In the compensation payment method (mortality rate), a fixed amount is set by the government on an annual basis to compensate for the costs of mortality.The results indicate that the mean concentrations for 2018 is 31.03 µg/m3. Using the results of Generalized Additive Model based on the shares obtained for traffic in the five areas studied in Isfahan, the concentration of PM2.5 pollution caused by urban traffic is 4.94 µg/m3.In general, 607 (95%Coeffecient Interval: 404-789) premature deaths in adults in 2018 can be attributed to PM2.5 pollution in Isfahan, among which 150 premature deaths are because of PM2.5 pollution caused by motor vehicles, i.e. about 25%. Out of a total of 150 deaths, the number of deaths caused by each factor is 51 (95%Coeffecient Interval: 30-107) cases of Ischemic heart disease (IHD), 3 (95%CI: 2-5) cases of Lung cancer (LC), 8 (95%CI: 4-12) cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Thus PM2.5 caused by traffic in 2018 accounts for 1.76% of all adult mortality.Using the value of a statistical life approach, the estimated total annual economic cost of traffic pollution in 2018 is USD 57.9 million and 304 billion IRR per year using compensation payment (mortality cost).Health effect valuation is an important part of assessing the social costs of air pollution because by implementing cost-benefit analysis, a criterion can be achieved to prioritize pollution control measures and policies can be adapted in accordance with these priorities

Preferential trade agreements with major trade partners can play an important role in maintaining and deepening of current trade.This is especially important in the case of Iran; Because it needed to develop non-oil exports and needs to enhance its role and level of participation in the global production value chains of various industries.As production tariffs have fallen around the world, trade agreements have shifted their focus to other issues, including: foreign investment rules, e-commerce regulations, service trade, technical standards harmonization, health regulations, and Simplify the rules. International trade occurs in physical space and moving goods requires time. The customs process of international trade and the movement of goods takes time. This article examines the importance of time as a trade barrier, estimates the cost of time, and relates it to patterns of trade and the international organization of production. The relative decline in transportation prices over time reduces time costs, and this is a convincing explanation for the growth of total trade, the combined effects on trade growth. The present study intends to investigate the simultaneous effect of the economic agreement between Iran and Turkey and the implementation of customs automation on reducing trade costs using a dynamic GTAP model according to the tariff reduction scenario under this agreement for the period 2011-2025. In order to measure both the primary and secondary impacts of these nontariff barriers, we use the General Trade Analysis Project-GTAP- model to simulate the reduce trade costs under customs automation and PTA agreement between between Iran and Turkey. The results show that the reduction of customs costs in concluding the agreement is very significant when customs automation is implemented

The increasing trend of income inequality, high inflation and unemployment, and social injustice in various societies, especially in developing countries including Iran, have made reducing income inequality and equitable income distribution one of the most important goals of governments and economic policymakers. To make the right decisions and policies and control income inequality, it is necessary to identify the determinants of the inequality. Therefore, in this study, the effect of misery index and corruption control on income inequality has been examined in Iran using quantile approach during the period 1375-1398. The results of quantile regression model estimation show that corruption control, economic freedom index and exchange rate have a significant, positive effect on income inequality while the misery index has a positive effect at the lower quantiles and a significant, negative effect on income inequality at the other quantiles. Also, using the bootstrap method estimation, the results of quantile regression estimation have been confirmed.The increasing trend of income inequality, high inflation and unemployment, and social injustice in various societies, especially in developing countries including Iran, have made reducing income inequality and equitable income distribution one of the most important goals of governments and economic policymakers. To make the right decisions and policies and control income inequality, it is necessary to identify the determinants of the inequality. Therefore, in this study, the effect of misery index and corruption control on income inequality has been examined in Iran using quantile approach during the period 1375-1398. The results of quantile regression model estimation show that corruption control, economic freedom index and exchange rate have a significant, positive effect on income inequality while the misery index has a positive effect at the lower quantiles and a significant, negative effect on income inequality at the other quantiles. Also, using the bootstrap method estimation, the results of quantile regression estimation have been confirmed.

With the increase of exchange rate fluctuations in early 1397, the government's economic headquarters began implementing a policy of allocating preferential currency at 4,200 tomans per US dollar. One of the most critical food products targeted by this policy is chicken meat, which depends on the supply of primary production inputs to imports. Given that, the question has always been discussed in scientific and political circles of the country: "How much subsidy goes to the import of products to the final consumer of products?", The present study, using monthly information 1397-1399, addresses this issue based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. According to the results, if, in the long run, the subsidy paid per kilogram of chicken meat by the government increases by one percent, the difference between the price of chicken meat in the Iranian and world markets will increase by 0.61 percent. Accordingly, it seems that although this policy has been able to keep the price of chicken meat below world prices, Accordingly, it seems that although this policy has been able to keep the price of chicken below world prices, it has not been able to reach the final consumer and benefit her fully. Therefore, there is a 39% deviation of the hidden subsidies paid in the chicken meat market. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers stop implementing this policy. According to the results, the government's direct intervention in the market through the monthly distribution of Market Regulation broiler, the accumulated surplus of imports of livestock inputs per hatchery, and feed supply risk in the poultry industry are other variables that affect the difference between the price of chicken in the Iranian and world markets