فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 71 (زمستان 1400)

Electricity plays an important role in the production of various economic sectors.  Power outages can thus impose high costs on these sectors and ultimately on economic growth and development.  The purpose of this study is to estimate the welfare losses resulting from a possible power outage in the productive economic sectors of Iran. This study was conducted in two stages using provincial panel data for the period 2010-2019. In the first stage, the electricity demand functions in the sectors of industry and mining, agriculture and services are estimated. In the second stage, changes in the welfare surplus of electricity users (due to possible power outage) are calculated using the estimated demands. The results of the first stage show that  electricity and diesel are complements in the industry and mining sector while electricity and natural gas are substitutes in the service sector. The agricultural sector is not sensitive to changes in electricity prices.  Estimated welfare losses of sectors (industry and mining, agriculture and services) at the macro and provincial levels show that  Kohgoluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad and East Azerbaijan provinces have respectively the highest and lowest welfare losses in the industry and mining sector. In the service sector, North Khorasan and Alborz provinces have respectively the highest and lowest welfare losses from possible power outages.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between Iran’s heavy crude oil price returns and volatility dependence using the Copula-based quantile model (CQM). CQM is an efficient tool for analyzing nonlinear time series models as it has no need for initial assumptions.  We use monthly data from January 1990 to December 2019. We use the Hadrick-Prescott filter to calculate oil price fluctuations and use quantiles in both quartile and percentile form. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the descriptive statistics confirm the fat-tail distribution of the variables.  It is thus not possible to calculate a direct relationship between crude oil price return and volatility. Based on the results of CQM estimation, a positive and significant relationship is verified between crude oil price volatility and returns in quantiles (0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.8, 0.9, and 0.95) which relate to periods of instability and crisis (war and economic sanctions). This finding can be theoretically explained through the channel of the precautionary demand effect on the oil price. The hypothesis of equality of variances was rejected within different quantiles based on ANOVA test result. Moreover, there is a significant relationship between one-period lag of oil price volatility (Xt-1) and oil returns within different quantiles. Using these results, investors can more effectively manage the risk of investing in the oil market as well as other financial assets related to the oil market.

While most literature on natural resource curse highlight its effect on the growth rate and the level of income, this paper shifts the focus toward the effect of oil dependence on the distribution of income in oil-rich developing countries (includiong Iran and 18 other countries). Moreover, the paper studies the impact of institutional quality and the interaction effect of different institutional quality measures and oil dependence on the distribution of income over the period of 2000-2017. We estimate a set of panel data models using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address the endogeneity problem. We find that oil dependence leads to increasing income inequality. Furthermore, our findings highlight the role of human capital, increase in gross domestic product per capita, and institutional quality improvement in decreasing income inequality. These results are robust to the way the quality of institutions is measured. Moreover, we find a threshold level for institutional quality above which the oil curse vanishes. Our finding, hence, highlights the crucial role of institutional quality in offsetting the positive effect of oil dependence on income inequality.

Stress in financial markets is defined as the force influencing the behavior of economic agents in the form of uncertainty and changing expectations, the critical values ​​of which are called financial crisis. Increasing oil revenues may have positive effects on aggregate supply through increased investments, especially public sector investment, as well as the import of capital and intermediate goods and the introduction of new technologies. An increase in the value of the national currency, which can result from a positive oil shock, actually lowers the price of imported capital and intermediate goods. Due to the importance of discussing Financial Stress Index and its relationship with economic variables affecting countries in this study with the aim of investigating the transfer of fluctuation of Financial Stress Index on macroeconomic indicators of  selected OPEC member countries, this issue has been studied. In this research, using multivariate GARCH models, BEKK and VAR models, the research hypotheses have been tested and analyzed. The data of the present study have been reviewed daily during the years 2010 to 2020. The results of the study indicate that the Financial Stress Index causes a surge in interest rates, liquidity and inflation in Iran, Kuwait and Qatar.

Iran is ranked as the ninth largest greenhouse gas producer in the world, with an annual emission of nearly 180 million tons of CO2 by thermal power plants.. The purpose of this research is to simulate and optimize the optimal economic and environmental load dispatch and a portfolio of efficiency improvement strategies on both supply and demand sides in MT1, MT2, and EEP scenarios in using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeler and its OSeMOSYS optimizer system. We do this using the time series data from 2008 to 2018 of the country's energy balance. Our modelling allowed us to estimate the current situation and forecast of supply and demand of thermal electricity, types of costs, and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions  for the whole country over a 20-year period (2011-2030). We identified the most efficient policy for improving the environmental economic efficiency of the thermal power sector in line with the Paris Agreement in the form of the best scenario through cost-benefit analysis by determining the optimal dispatching of thermal power plants. The results showed that all alternative scenarios with a reduction of more than 15% emissions and environmental economic benefits of more than $ 8 billion compared to the BAU scenario would achieve Iran's INDC goals and meet our commitments under either a conditional or an unconditional agreement.

The increasing dependence of European Union member countries on imported oil and gas has led to concerns about energy supply and security.  At the same time the share of clean energy in Europe’s energy consumption basket is increasing due to environmental issues. About a quarter of all energy consumption in the EU is natural gas, and most EU member states import almost all of their energy resources, especially oil and gas. The increase of European energy imports, including gas from Russia, increases their energy dependence.  We use literature review to study the question of what the most important energy security problems for European countries are and what strategies they can adopt to increase their energy security. The results of this study show that European energy security is compromised by high dependence on oil and gas imports from Russia and inability to source energy from countries like Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions. The most important strategies of countries are to strengthen international institutions such as oil exchanges, use of alternative sources of fossil fuels, diversification of oil and gas import portfolios, joint investment with a basket of oil producers and new pipelines to transport gas. Iran can be a good option for Europe to increase its energy security, given the country’s oil and gas resources and strategic position.

This study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the Iranian economy. To that end, a wavelet transformation technique is used, which allows us to combine the time domain and frequency domain characteristics of two time series together. Using this approach and data for the period 1991:2 – 2017:1, this study tries to overcome the shortcomings of  standard econometrics and shed more light on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran. The results show a short-term causality effect from energy consumption to economic growth only in the early 1990s.  There is not any significant relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run. Therefore, adopting energy consumption management policies to protect the environment and natural resources, can reduce energy consumption without hindering economic growth in Iran.

Export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is one of the basic needs of the Iranian oil, gas and petrochemical industry due to the severe sanctions conditions in Iran, restrictions on export of natural gas through pipelines and increased use of LNG in the energy basket of different countries. However, in recent years, despite some attempts to produce this strategic product, no concrete results have been achieved in this area, and Iran has practically no share in the global LNG market. Despite some previous studies, due to changes in economic conditions in domestic and international markets in recent years, no new studies have been conducted on the economic and technical viability of LNG production in Iran. In addition, due to sanctions against Iran and the unavailability of large-scale licenses, it seems that the only way to develop this industry is to focus on small-scale plants. Therefore, in this paper we examine different aspects of this investment based on real data for small-scale plants and the current conditions of domestic and global markets. In addition, in this study, we simultaneously examine various factors affecting the project and the relationships among them and analyze the sensitivity of financial results to each factor.The results show that construction of small-scale LNG plants in Iran is profitable and offers an acceptable rate of return on investment. In addition, the results of the simultaneous study of factors show that compared to investment and operating costs, these projects are the most sensitive to changes in the LNG price. Given the sensitivity and correlation of LNG and petroleum prices in the Asian region, we analyze this correlation. We then proceed to propose a new feedstock price formula as one of the key factors in the success of these projects. The suggested feedstock price formula ensures a reasonable return on investment, while protecting the interests of the Ministry of Oil and the National Iranian Gas Company.