نشریه مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا
پیاپی 1 (بهار 1400)

The issue of the reasons for the decline of the United States' power and position in the international system has long been debated among professors and analysts of international relations. However, there are still ambiguities and misconceptions in this regard, to the extent that some equate America's decline with its collapse or disintegration. Such a mistake stems from a lack of understanding of power transitions in international relations and the failure to use a proper explanatory theory. One of the theories that can help understand  to decline of the United States and the transition of power in the current international system is George Modelsky's theory of 'long cycles.' Using the case theory approach, the present paper chooses long-cycle theory to analyze the decline of the United States and, based on it, answers the three-dimensional question of what the decline of the United States is, why, and how it occurs. In response, the paper hypothesizes that of the four stages that the theory of the rise and fall of world powers enumerates, the United States is currently in the third stage of decentralization due to the emergence of new competitors. However, the author believes that due to the developments of the international system in recent decades, we may not necessarily see a full-scale world war in the fourth stage and the transfer of power to the new hegemon will be achieved without the outbreak of the third world war.

A strong and integrated economic system is a combination ofcoordinated components of hard and soft power. Relying solely on military power and hard power and ignoring human capital and mobilizing the masses as soft power, causes the gradual decline of the system. Despite being the world's largest economy with $ 21 trillion and the largest military spending in the world ($ 732 billion), the United States ranks seventh in the world in terms of per capita income ($ 65,000) and has a Gini coefficient (Income distribution index) of 0.852 and indicates a highly unequal distribution of income and wealth. The income gap between white and black households is also widening sharply. The racism perception index (zero to one) in the United States was reported at 5.18 out of 76 countries, ranking it 13th. These stylized facts indicate a positive relationship between increasing military spending and increasing poverty and injustice in American society. This study, with the help of time series data from the period 1970-1970, shows that with increasing military spending and inciting war, inequality and the poverty-rich gap in the United States is increasing.

A strong and integrated economic system is a combination of coordinated components of hard and soft power. Relying solely on military power and hard power and ignoring human capital and mobilizing the masses as soft power, causes the gradual decline of the system. Despite being the world's largest economy with $ 21 trillion and the largest military spending in the world ($ 732 billion), the United States ranks seventh in the world in terms of per capita income ($ 65,000) and has a Gini coefficient (Income distribution index) of 0.852 and indicates a highly unequal distribution of income and wealth. The income gap between white and black households is also widening sharply. The racism perception index (zero to one) in the United States was reported at 5.18 out of 76 countries, ranking it 13th. These stylized facts indicate a positive relationship between increasing military spending and increasing poverty and injustice in American society. This study, with the help of time series data from the period 1970-1970, shows that with increasing military spending and inciting war, inequality and the poverty-rich gap in the United States is increasing.

As the international environment evolves, the geopolitics of the Middle East is shifting from a post-Cold War American order to a post-American one. A situation that has encouraged regional and supra-regional powers to play an active role in changing regional politics. In the meantime, the emergence of a global multipolar order has plunged Russia and, to a lesser extent, China into the great Middle East game, further complicating the situation in the region, all of which means that other Middle East equations are not based on US unilateralism anymore. Developments after the Arab revolutions show that the American era in the Middle East is over. And with the decline of American influence in the region, regional governments no longer look to it as a source of order and security. In such a situation, each of the regional powers, by redefining its strategic role and position in the Middle East, which was once based on the model of friendship and enmity with Washington, seeks to shape the geopolitical order of the region based on strategic interests and initiatives. They are themselves. The most important outcome of such a situation is a shift in US relations with its strategic allies in the Middle East, which no longer aligns its priorities and interests with US strategic preferences. This present study aims to establish a significant link between structural changes in the international system and changes in US-Turkish strategic relations.This research tests the basic idea that the decline of US hegemony in Turkey's periphery has changed Turkey's regional role and led it to pursue strategies independent of Western allies to redefine its position as a regulatory regional power. , As it strengthens the pioneers of the transition to a post-American order in the Middle East.

During recent decades, the transitions such as the advent of nuclear deterrence and the increasing financial burden of military conflict have dramatically reduced the desirability of using military means. According to this variant, the grand strategy of the United States, especially over the last two decades, has been to reduce military engagement and improve the usage of alternative means. One of the most important tools that has had an ascending trend is economic sanctions, which, with the support of the global dollar system, is severely impacting the sanctioned countries. The main issue that this study seeks to address is the reasons of growing imposition of sanctions as a tool in United States’ grand strategy. To address this question, it has been hypothesized that, in parallel with the increasing universality of the US dollar in the international economic system, the United States has used the dominance of the dollar as one of its foreign policy tools to pressure other countries. In return, the emergence of new rising powers such as China, India, and Russia; and the growing trend of imposing sanctions by the US, have created a potential coalition of countries with common interests that have accepted the transition from an US-centered economic order as one of the fundamental approaches of their macro strategy.

Hegemony has been the most important concept to American power in the international system since the end of the Cold War. Pro-decline approach who criticize continuity hegemonic power of the United States in world politics, are emphasizing on issues such as the weakening of US hegemonic components, the logic of the rise and fall of great powers, and other fundamental domestic economic and social problems. They believe that the world is now going through a period of superpower decline and we must speak of a post-hegemonic era. On the other hand, the proponents of reconstruction approach, relying on the stark difference between US economic, military and technological power with other major powers, US special capacity to restore its power and experiencing diverse cycles of decline and reconstruction in the history of US hegemony, believe the current situation reveals the continuity of the American age in the international system. The article attempts to examine the arguments of decline and reconstruction approaches and perspective of American era, focusing on the question of what is the influence of weakening US hard and soft power on the prospect of decline or revival of the components of US power. The hypothesis of this research, which has been tested descriptively-analytically, shows that despite the experience of cycles of decline and reconstruction in the history of American hegemony in the international system and the views of thinkers such as Huntington, the United States has no ability to rebuild its hegemony and has entered an irreversible decline.