پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 80 (بهار 1400)

According to empirical evidence, the consequences of supportive policies will not necessarily lead to efficient industries, optimal allocation of resources, international competition, and optimal use of opportunities. Inappropriate or suboptimal use of the supportive policies in manufacturing industries may change the direction of scarce resources and the relative prices in the society which may lead to price distortion and some monopoly power in the country's industries.  In this study, using the Hall-Rager method, we analyzed the effect of supportive policies on price deviation in the Iranian manufacturing industries. To do this we used the Herfindahl index, the simple rate of tariff, and Implicit nominal support index as independent variables and the price deviation in the manufacturing industries of the country as a dependent variable. The model as a dynamic panel data has been estimated with the generalized method of moments for 92 industries based on the four-digit ISIC code during 2004-2014. The results showed that between the years 2004 to 2014, the highest level of simple tariff rate was for the shoes and clothes industry with 100 percent. The cement and plaster industry had the most implicit support amongst the  92 studied industries. According to the estimated models, centralized industrial structure, implicit nominal support, tariff rate, and barrier entry intensity have had a positive and significant effect on the formation of price deviation in Iran's manufacturing industries.

The COVID-19 pandemic became widespread in most countries of the world in late 2019. In addition to human casualties, it has also affected the economies of countries. According to IMF, the world economic growth in 2020 was -3.5 percent. However, the GDP’s growth rate of the Iran economy for 2020 has been positive and was reported as 1.5 percent, but there is evident that the economy has been affected by the coronavirus.  In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the production, employment, and value-added of the economy of Iran by using the hypothetical extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) and the Input-Output general equilibrium model of Zaytseva (2000). We have used the data from the input-output table of the Iran Central Bank in 2016 and the employment figures of the Statistics Center of Iran. The results show that the production and the value-added of the economy will decrease by 4.3 and 4 percent respectively. Among the value-added components, mixed-income and net operating surplus experienced the highest declining growth rate. Also, about 6.5 percent of the country's employees have been affected directly and indirectly by the Coronavirus.

The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods accounts were split into cereal accounts, other agriculture, industry, and mining and services. The results of the model, using three simulation scenarios, showed that as a result of climate change, the production of all sectors excluding industry and mining would be reduced, which would result in higher prices for cereals and lower prices for other activities. In addition, grain exports will decrease in different scenarios and exports of other goods will increase. On the other hand, cereal imports will decrease as imports and other commodities decrease. In this regard, the welfare of urban and rural households will also decrease, which is more pronounced for urban households. According to the results, the macroeconomic effects of these scenarios are the reduction of nominal and real GDP, total absorption and private consumption of households.

In the rational choice model, the individual decides to use drugs after calculating their cost-benefit. However, since using drugs involves economic and health costs, public policies are being implemented by adolescents to prevent the experience and consumption of these drugs. As at present, these policies are primarily based on tax increases, consumption restrictions or warning advertisements about the dangers associated by using these substances. In other words, the purpose of these policies is to increase the costs imposed on the consumer, and the pleasure of consumption. However, today these policies are trying to reverse the rising trend in using drugs among adolescents. In this article, we emphasize the importance of pleasure from using drugs, and in particular the expected pleasure and real pleasure at first use. To this end, we use a theoretical framework for adolescent drug experience to define new ways to adopt public policies related to the primary prevention of using drugs. In particular, we identify, evaluate, and promote alternative activities for drug use: sports and creative activities, entertainment, and more.

The existence of efficient financial institutions, proper allocation of resources and financial development are the prerequisites for achieving desired economic growth and development. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the factors affecting the financial development of countries. This study examines the impact of natural resources and institutional quality on the financial development of developing countries over 2000-2016 using systemic GMM In this study, we used three indexes for financial development: the Financial Development Index (FDI) developed by IMF, the total credit provided by banks to the private sector as a share of GDP, and the Z-score index. The rent of natural resources is measured as a weighted average of income flows from oil, gas and minerals and Good Governance Indicators are used as measures of institutional quality. The results suggest that natural resources rents have a positive and significant effect on credit provided to the private sector and Financial Development Index, but threaten the stability of the banking sector. In addition, Institutional quality indicators also show a positive effect on three indicators of financial development.

The importance of establishing “Enabling Trade” measures in the countries of origin and destination of exports is of great importance in the international economic literature. In this regard, many studies have shown that improving Enabling Trade can reduce trade costs and improve export performance. However, in previous studies, the issue of Enabling Trade at export destinations and its impact on the commercial performance of export sources has not received much attention. In addition, the need for non-linear estimation of gravity models has been almost completely agreed in the past decade. Therefore, this article studies the estimation of the impact of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on the trade facilitation of its 21 trading partner countries from 2008 to 2016. Enabling Trade Index (ETI) includes four sub-indexes: market access, border management, transportation and communications infrastructure, and operating environment. The results show that Enabling Trade Indices such as market access, border management, infrastructure, and operating environment in the country of origin and export destination countries have had a positive and significant impact on trade flows between Iran and its trading partners. In addition, the results show that the importance and intensity of Iran’s enabling trade indicators are higher than similar measures taken by its trading partners. The authors interpret it as explaining the important role of enabling trade policies in increasing trade between Iran and its trading partners.