فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 41 (بهار 1401)

Still influenced by Cold War thinking, many countries may interact in the international scenario through competition rather than cooperation. However, in most cases it is not possible to choose permanent trade policies, because by changing the structure of production and the level of development, the interests of countries change. As a result, several forms of strategic interaction emerge during the trade policy process. Accordingly, in this paper, using an asymmetric evolutionary game model and adding a win-win game hypothesis, the effects of applying a cooperation strategy instead of competing in international affairs are analyzed. Examining evolution in the context of game theory helps to better explain phenomena such as cooperative behaviors; therefore, in this study, the dynamic mechanism of change in the period 2005 to 2018 has been considered. Based on the results of the evolutionary game under mixed strategy, Iran will act as a leader due to its higher bargaining power and will choose a competitive strategy instead of cooperating with Turkey, and instead, Turkey will play the role of follower and Instead of competing with Iran, it chooses to cooperate, especially if the projected cost of losing the competition is high. However, in the dynamic evolutionary game under the new win-win hypothesis, it is realized that a strategy of cooperating in trade with Iraq and helping to develop it, is likely to be a logical option for Iran and Turkey. Also, with the presence of Russia, the possibility of gaining more benefits by choosing a cooperation strategy instead of competition will be higher.

Looking at developing countries that have experienced extensive industrial progress and high growth rates in recent decades, it can be seen that investment has been one of the most important economic factors that has played a significant role in their development.Therefore, it can be said that investment is one of the most important factors in economic growth and development of any country. In today's world, energy has a special place and importance for all countries of the world. In the last two decades, energy has been mentioned as one of the important factors of production, which along with other factors of production such as labor, capital and raw materials, plays a decisive role in the economic life of countries. So, In the present paper, a dynamic investment model with combined data related to Iranian industries with double-digit ISIC codes during the years 1388 to 1397 is estimated. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of energy carrier prices and firm size on the level of investment in the industrial sector. For this purpose, a dynamic programming system and Euler equations are used.The basic model used in the present study is the dynamic investment model presented below and is based on the Euler equation method introduced by Abel (1980) and modified by Rati et al. (2011).It is assumed that capital and energy are the only inputs to production and debt in finance.We consider managers or shareholders, who choose investments and loans that maximize the present value of dividends subject to capital accumulation and external financing constraints.

In financial markets, risk management is tied to the concept of fluctuations and it is impossible to manage it without knowing why fluctuations occur. Fundamental analysis of fluctuations requires the study of very large forces in the market, and this is very difficult due to the lack of sufficient data, uncertainty about exogenous variables and the time required to study them. In this study, an attempt is made to identify the pattern of uncertainty transfer of variables affecting the long-term turbulence of industrial sector returns on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, the mixed data model (GARCH-MIDAS) and data of various internal and external variables with daily, monthly and seasonal frequencies in the period 2009-2010 have been used. In the stage of selecting variables, different models, variables affecting the turbulence of the efficiency of the industrial sector in the long run were estimated and the variables that had a significant effect on the transmission of fluctuations to the industrial sector were selected. Among the various domestic and foreign variables, uncertainty due to inflation, exchange rate, gold price and oil price have transmitted turbulence to the industrial sector in the stock exchange and in the long run. In addition, the results of the final model show that inflation is the most effective source of instability in the industrial sector in the Tehran Stock Exchange, which indicates that the capital market is more sensitive to domestic variables. According to the final model estimates, inflation, exchange rate and gold price uncertainty in the short and long term have had a positive and significant effect on industry turbulence. It is estimated

This study employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) as an innovative method in evaluating the effects of a policy to assess the effect of the 2011 economic sanctions on Iran's exports during the period 2001-2018. For this purpose, in addition to Iran, ten other countries have been considered as a donor pool to simulate the trend of Iran's exports before and after the economic sanctions. New Zealand, Turkey, the UAE and China have played the most important roles in this simulation. The results show that while Iran could have achieved more than $ 150 billion in exports for each of the years since the embargo, the sanctions have caused Iran to lose an average of $ 74 billion export income annually. According to the estimated model, the largest export gap is related to 2015, when sanctions caused Iran's export to reach $ 60 billion. While according to the counterfactual export pattern and in the absence of sanctions in this year, the amount of exports could reached $159.7 billion, and the maximum export gap has been recorded $99.7 billion. The placebo test confirms the reliability of the estimates made by extending the SCM to all members of the donor pool. The results of this study show that Iran's export is affected by demand side factors. Developing friendly political relations with business partners, avoiding international disputes, and building sustainable trade relations through business links between firms are among the policy recommendations

Oil shocks, due to economic sanctions and income restrictions, have cost the government dearly in recent years, and it is important to examine their effects, especially in terms of declining tax revenues. Unfortunately, the imposition of various international sanctions on Iran in recent years and declining oil revenues due to declining oil exports on the one hand, as well as declining crude oil prices globally, have had devastating effects on macroeconomic variables such as taxes, government spending and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of oil shocks on Iran's tax revenues using the Bayesian self-regression (BVAR) method and considering the variables of the total tax, indirect tax, direct tax, government expenditure, and GDP during the years 1991-2019. The results of the study of instantaneous reaction and analysis of variance functions show that oil revenue shocks, at a declining rate, have a positive effect on direct and indirect tax revenues, indicating the government's tendency to rely on tax revenues and expand tax bases. With declining oil revenues, if tax bases are not strengthened, tax revenues will fall and, assuming other conditions remain stable, will lead to a larger government budget deficit. The results indicate that the response of direct and indirect taxes to oil shocks is significant but small, that shows the poor performance of the country's tax system in response to oil developments. Therefore any decline in oil revenues, in addition to reducing tax revenues, also leads to a decrease in GDP and other government revenues; therefore, to increase tax revenues, fundamental measures and changes must be taken and strengthened within the government structure

Since its inception at the mid- 1387, Value added tax has performed as a growing and stable source of revenue for government. Nonetheless, the size of missing VAT income because of non-compliance with law (compliance gap) as well as ignoring income to achieve distributional targets or to facilitate implementation (policy gap) is a question. In other word, in this paper we are going to give an estimate of VAT gap and understand its evolution over time. To estimate VAT gap, in this paper we employ a macro economic approach rather than micro economic approach. Macro economic approach could be base on production or consumption. Production method which is adopted in this paper is based on input - output table. Relying on input - output table, the value of sales and buys can be estimated and according to definition by subtracting latter from former the value added can be computed. Based on computed value added and imposing standard tax rates and actual policy rates, potential and legal tax revenue can be computed. The difference between potential and legal tax revenue is called policy gap and if government's actual tax revenue become substracted from legal tax revenue, the result will be compliance gap. In this paper, we estimated 31 regional input-output tables during 1388-1394 and computed the VAT gap. Results indicate a volatile but decreasing VAT gap, so as compliance gap has decreased from 68% to 59.6% and policy gap from 40.2% to 31%. Furthermore, Tehran, Khorasan-e Razavi, Bushehr, Fars, Isfahan and Azarbaijan-e Sharghi are provinces with highest share of complia

This paper analyzes the incentives to increase the cost of public education, including the effect of the "cost sickness" scheme. According to the theory, the salary paid to teachers can explain the significant increase in tuition costs. Bamol divides the economy into two leading non-progressive parts. The leading sector includes the part of economic activities in which technology is crystallized as innovations and the accumulation of capital in it by activating economies of scale provides the basis for increasing per capita production. In this sector, the increase in wages is proportional to the increase in productivity. On the other hand, there are activities in which the human role is prominent and productivity growth occurs only occasionally and accidentally. In terms of education, they are located in the non-leading sector. In non-leading industries, the wage rate increases in proportion to the higher wage rate in the leading sector to retain workers despite the low productivity growth similar to the effect and increases the unit cost of services in the non-leading sector. This increase in cost translates into an additional increase in the cost of education, and because the demand for education is unbearable, it continues to increase the general cost of education. The present study reviews the article on unbalanced macroeconomic growth and crisis in urban areas of Bamol and examines the increase in costs in the Iranian education sector using the Bamol model and ARDL method during the period (1360-1397). Long-term and short-term results show that not only is there no sick disease, but also an increase in wages to productivity reduces production costs in that sector and can lead to prosperity in this sector.

The Hara forest, also known as the mangrove protected area, with an area of 200 square kilometers, is located in the Khoran Strait, between Qeshm Island and Khamir Port in Hormozgan Province. These forests provide countless services to the community in terms of ecology, economy and tourism, and are very important from this perspective. The purpose of this article is to help policy makers and planners to manage the forest efficiently and sustainably. For this purpose, using selection modeling analysis, the value of qualitative benefits provided by this forest to the community was estimated. For this purpose, the logit model with simple random parameters and then the logit model with combined random parameters (with action sentences) were used to estimate the heterogeneity in community preferences for different forest characteristics. The results of this study show that people's preferences are significantly heterogeneous. Also, in this study, the tendency of final payment for non-market characteristics of mangrove forest including natural landscape, ecological yield and biodiversity was estimated. Finally, the numbers obtained for the willingness to make the final payment were generalized to the whole community, resulting in the annual value of the qualitative benefits along with their total value. These numbers for the annual and total value (capital) are equal to 321109 and 1.536.084 billion rials, respectively. The calculated existential value shows that the community is willing to pay to protect this forest and there is a potential to use the results of the present study as a baseline study to improve the level of public awareness and witness a very high level of public participation in conservation projects. It was from this forest. The obtained numbers can also be used for economic-environmental evaluation of projects in and around this forest

The analysis of the price formula of the country's crude oil is very important in view of the effective parameters in each market and their price relations with the index-linked crude oil in explaining the country's crude oil price in these regions (Northwest Europe, Mediterranean and Asia). In this regard, Iranian oil rivals such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the like in the Asian market have been trying to gain more market share in Asia by changing the price formula for crude oil. Since it is the responsibility of selling and pricing crude oil to each region with the National Iranian Oil Company, then an examination of the effective parameters in each region can play an important role in determining the appropriate price formula. On the other hand, analyzing the behavior of the price of crude oil in the Asian market, taking into account the largest share of the export market, is effective in controlling the risk caused by fluctuations in crude oil prices and changes in the country's oil revenue. In the present paper, based on monthly data of the 2010-2016 time series and the multivariate GARCH method, the formula for the price of light crude oil of Iran in the Asian market based on the technical parameters of the market in this region is investigated. The results show that the price of Iranian crude oil in the Asian market is due to the quality difference between Saudi Arabia's crude oil and Iran, the amount of Cantago, or the backwardation of the Dubai crude oil market, the average Dubai and Oman crude oil in the Spot market. The tops of light petroleum (light crude oil) indirectly affects the price of light crude oil by influencing Oman and Dubai crude markets. Based on the estimated results, Dubai's crude oil is also a function of Brent crude oil and its behavior is based on changes in the European Market Indicator.