فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 100 (زمستان 1400)

Ensuring access to essential goods during hard times has always been the policy makers’ main concern. Using Household Expenditure and Income Survey data during 1984-1989, we estimate the welfare effects of rationing three essential goods: rice, cooking oil, and sugar. We find that households consumed higher than the efficient quantities of these rationed goods due to lower prices. Under the alternative policy of a cash transfer equal to the value of rations, we estimate a small increase in the aggregate welfare. The distribution of this overall small welfare gain is skewed toward the poor households. The welfare of the poorest quintile of households increases by more than 5 percent when cash transfers replace rationing.

In terms of financing, penetration in global markets and emphasis on comparative advantage, attracting FDI play a key role in boosting economic growth, providing foreign exchange and increasing non-oil exports. In this study, the effect of determinants on foreign-owned firms survival is investigated by the Complementary Log-Log Model. To achieve the purpose, the future status of valid foreign investment licenses in 2007 until 2019 was followed. The results suggest that after JCPOA until withdrawal of US from the agreement, foreign-owned firms were less likely to leave Iran than during the sanctions. The results also show that with increasing in age and size of capital, the hazard of foreign-owned firms exit will decrease. Foreign-owned firms from Europe were less likely to leave than other investors, as well as foreign-owned firms which active in the industrial sectors and some provinces with more than three million people were less likely to leave.

Banks are one of the most important economic pillars of countries that play a significant role in their growth and development. In Iran, due to the expansion of the financial and monetary system, banks have practically taken on the task of collecting and allocating economic resources. One of the important tasks of banks is the optimal management of assets and liabilities with the aim of maximizing returns while minimizing risk. The results of research in this regard show that the optimal allocation of resources leads to increased income and reduced bank risk, will be. In this study, we intend to optimize the real structure by optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities of commercial banks including Mellat, Saderat, Tejarat, Parsian, Pasargad, Eghtesad Novin, Sina, Karafarin, Dey and Middle East using the Mean-Variance model. Letchr('39')s compare the real and optimal structure of banks and then separate the banks into two categories of privatized state-owned banks and fully private banks, examine the effect of management on how to manage the resources and expenses of banks.The research findings show that the combination of bankschr('39') resources and expenditures on some assets and liabilities, including credit facilities granted to customers and banks, as well as current and investment deposits, is significantly different. It is calculated with the optimal combination. The research results also show that the combination of assets, liabilities and equity of private banks is more similar to the optimal composition than privatized state-owned banks, and these banks have performed better in managing their resources and expenditures.

This study seeks to model tax evasion and identify how effective factors affect tax evasion in the Iranian economy. Recent models show the failure of traditional models; Models do not have enough ability to model hidden variables such as tax evasion. The present study considers this failure in identifying explanatory variables and experimental model design. To achieve this, the Bayesian averaging method has been used in the period 1370 to 1397 in MATLAB 2021.In this study, 62 variables affecting tax evasion were entered into the model, and using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 1 to 12 non-fragile variables affecting tax evasion were identified. The results show that inflation is the most fragile variable affecting tax evasion. As a result, in tax evasion modeling, inflation has the highest direct relationship with tax evasion; Also, based on the results, the most important variables affecting tax evasion in modeling tax evasion in order of priority are inflation, exchange rate, tax culture, unemployment, tax fairness, tax effort, budget deficit, tax morale, privatization, tax complexity, value-added ratio. The GDP services sector, fair tax system. According to the results, both political and cultural, and economic factors have a significant impact on tax evasion.

The health of a bank helps to maintain the trust and confidence of the bank and also the interests of the beneficiaries. But balancing the interests of all stakeholders requires improving corporate governance in banks. Given the importance of the issue, this paper examines the effect of corporate governance on bankschr('39') regulatory rankings. For this purpose, the required criteria have been measured using the financial statements of the Iranianchr('39')s private banks in the period of 2006-2018 and the principles of the Basel Committee in the field of corporate governance. Then, the panel data method and Kaplan Meier were used to measure the effect of corporate governance on the regulatory rank.The results indicate good transparency and disclosure have positive and significant effect and board of directors has negative and significant effect on improving bankschr('39') regulatory rating. But good accountability has not effect on bankschr('39') regulatory rating. The degree of effectiveness of the board of directors is more important than other criteria of good transparency and disclosure, good accountability and transparency. Comparing with a good measure of accountability has a greater impact than others on improving bankschr('39') regulatory rating. Also, the more banks comply with corporate governance principles, the less time they will have to improve their regulatory rank. This is a shorter time for the board to be effective.

The construction industry in the housing sector plays an important role in economic growth due to its significant share in GDP compared to other sectors. One of the most important factors hindering the increase of private sector investment in the construction industry is the faltering of trust and confidence. Meanwhile, exchange rate uncertainty and inflation have the most negative impact on the investment of construction companies. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate on the investment of construction companies in the period 1996-2020. To estimate the model, first using exchange rate data; Exchange rate uncertainty was calculated by GARCH method, then using GMM method, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate on construction companies' investment data was investigated. The results show that a one percent increase in exchange rate uncertainty and inflation has reduced the investment of construction companies by 0/593 and 0/368 percent, respectively. Also, a one percent increase in economic growth has increased the investment of construction companies by 0/119 percent. Based on the effect of estimated coefficients, the share and importance of the construction sector; Identifying investment opportunities and threats in the construction industry, government efforts in the correct and scientific implementation of economic policies in order to stabilize the real exchange rate and price index and awareness of the impact of these variables when planning and setting policies it's important.

Value added tax has been focus on many countries in recent decades due to the low tax base consumption, low cost on identification, collection and transfer on tax burden to the end consumer in the economy. Therefore, its full implementation in Iran can improve the efficiency on the tax system. In this regard, policymakers' awareness on the effects on consolidated, distributive and allocative value added tax is essential. In this study, the performance on value added tax on inflation, income distribution and government capital assets ownership in the Iranian provinces over the period (2008-2016) was investigated using panel data method. The results show that VAT has led to lower inflation, improved income distribution and reduced ownership of government capital assets in the provinces. In general, depending on the welfare policies of countries and how to replace this tax with other taxes, the type of this effect can be different. In addition, directing VAT revenues to infrastructure spending and improving government services is of particular importance.

This research aims to investigate technological capabilities competitiveness of Iran’s petrochemical industry products in 2016 . The main questions of the study are 1) in which petrochemical industry products does Iran enjoys a revealed comparative advantage? 2) what are the opportunities for Iran to diversify petrochemical export basket? in order to answer these questions we have used an approach called economic complexity. Based on harmonized system at the 6-digit level (HS6) in 2016, our results indicate that, Iran had revealed comparative advantage in export of 35 petrochemical industry products. In order to evaluate opportunities, the proximity border of technological capabilities was mapped using 3 criterias of distance, product complexity and opportunity gain. The results identified 44 new products. These are products that lead the country to more technological capabilities and a higher level of complexity, and at the same time they are not far from the current technological capabilities of the country. Finally, to prioritize selected products, we examined the international markets of these products according to three criterias: Number of main competitors exporting, World trade volume and Number of countries importing the product , at the end 7 products were selected as priority products.

In this paper, we use the Synthetic control method to assess the impact of economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran's per capita GDP during 1990 to 2020. The US economic sanctions against the Iranian economy during this period has had a huge negative impact on the economy of Iran. Using the Synthetic control method, the economic cost of sanctions has been estimated in terms of per capita GDP. The results show that the effects of sanctions on the economy would be a significant reduction in per capita GDP by 33% in comparision with the lack of sanctions position. After intensifying santions in the Trump administration, negative effect has reached to 44% reduction in per capita GDP in 2020. Definitly, this reduction of per capita GDP will deccrease the walfare of Iranians in the long-run.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of social damages (divorce, crime and addiction) on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. To achieve this, the literature on endogenous growth models has been used and the relationships of economic agents have been explained in the form of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In the designed DSGE model, labor productivity and human capital are the main factors of economic growth and social damages are considered as one of the main factors of depreciation in the accumulation of human capital in society. To measure the effect of social damages on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, two scenarios of existence and non-existence of social damages have been defined in the model, and then in each of the existing cases, fiscal and monetary shocks were applied to the model. The results show a decrease in the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies when social damages are defined in the model.

In the economic literature, increasing each of the components of the monetary base by the same coefficient called the multiplier increases liquidity. But in reality, the degree of impact of each component of the monetary base on liquidity may be different. If so, in addition to the monetary base, the composition of the monetary base components can also affect liquidity.Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the impact of each of the monetary base components on liquidity. To do this, the research model was designed based on theoretical foundations. Data for the period 1978-2018 were collected from the time series database of the Central Bank. The model was estimated by Johansen-Joslius cointegration method. The results showed that all components of the monetary base have a positive and significant effect on liquidity. But the degree of impact or in other words the impact factor of these components are different from each other. So that banks' debt to the central bank with a coefficient of 8.146 has the greatest impact on liquidity. The net debt of the government to the central bank with a coefficient of 2.292 is in the second place and the foreign assets of the central bank with a coefficient of 1.499 have the least impact on liquidity.In terms of the impact on liquidity, the variable of banks' debt to the central bank varies approximately 3.5 times the net government debt to the central bank and 5.5 times the foreign assets of the central bank affect liquidity.

The trend of bank lending can help to predict future economic conditions, so that too fast or slow credit growth may indicate financial or economic crises. In the Iranian economy, most of the financial resources required by economic enterprises are provided through the provision of facilities by the banking network. Therefore, it is very important for policymakers to know the factors influencing the growth of banking facilities in order to protect their economy. Therefore, the study of factors affecting private banking facilities in the Iranian economy is of particular importance. Therefore, the factors affecting the facilities granted by banks to the non-governmental sector with quarterly data of Iranchr('39')s economy in the period 1379 to 1399 with a nonlinear Markov switching approach by variable probability transfer method are investigated. The results show that the growth of banking facilities during the credit boom increases with increasing economic growth, while during the credit recession does not affect economic growth. Also, during the credit crisis, inflation and exchange rates had a negative effect, and the growth rate of bank deposits and interest rates on facilities had a positive effect on the growth of bank facilities. During the credit boom, the exchange rate had a negative effect and the economic growth rate and the growth rate of bank deposits had a positive effect on the growth of bank facilities. Interest rates on deposits and non-current receivables did not have a significant effect on the growth rate of bank facilities. Therefore, the asymmetric effect of economic factors on the growth of banking facilities is evident according to this approach. Therefore, the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic factors during different periods is important in policy making and the use of linear models will have consequences in policy making. Also, the probability of transition from a boom regime to a credit crunch increases with the growth of economic growth in the previous season and decreases with the growth of banking facilities in the previous season.

According to the specific characteristics of the economic sectors and sub-sectors of each sector, it is likely that these sectors and their sub-sectors show different response to a monetary shock. The present study has been conducted on how the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks affect the growth rate of the industrial sector in terms of symmetry or asymmetry of effects in business and credit cycles. In this study, the effect of the mentioned shocks on the growth rate of the industry is investigated in three models separately (Model in conventional conditions and without economic fluctuations, model with business cycles and model with credit cycles), Using seasonal time series data from 1988 to 2019 and the nonlinear approach of Markov Switching, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the linear regression method. Based on the results of the SUR technique, in normal economic conditions, the industry and mining sector and its sub-sectors do not react significantly to the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks.  Using the regime switching probabilities and business and credit cycles derived from Markov methods MSMAH (2,5,0) and MSM (2) -AR (4), the linear regression results show the asymmetric effect of anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks in both business and credit cycles. In a way that, in the state of the business  cycles, unanticipated shocks are more effective in expansionary than in recession and in the state of the credit cycles, these shocks have a stronger effect on stimulating production in the conditions of credit slowdowns.