فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال پانزدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 56، زمستان 1400)

In this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide whether to fine or not, and in the second stage, the driver decides whether to pay a bribe or not. The driver compares the amount of the fine and the cost of the bribe. It can be concluded that the more lawful the police, the lower the bribe payment. Punishment of bribe recipients and payers can also prevent bribery and help eradicate possible corruption in this important organ of the country.

The main purpose of the article is to Identify of regions and activities that create greater potential value added tax for themselves and others. For this purpose, the column coefficient approach is used to calculate the input-output table of 9 regions including 24 activities for 2011. Findings indicate that although at the macro level, smaller regions create more potential value added tax capacity than larger ones, at the economic activity level, there is no direct relation between the share of value added of an activity and the potential VAT capacity of that activity. Based on the results, it is suggested that policy makers and regional planners pay special attention to the structure of the economy and the nature of the activities of that region. Also, the focus of regional development policies should be shifted to smaller areas that are more in line with space-based theories.

The purpose of this paper is to measure the average share of information and communication technology in long-term productivity growth and as well as the increasing intensity of ICT index in Iran's manufacturing industries at the level of double-digit codes (ISIC). For this purpose, the expanded growth accounting model in the period2005-2018was exploited. The research findings revealed that : The effects of ICT has a significant positive effect on the average long-term productivity growth in Iran's manufacturing industries. ICT's share of long-term productivity growth in The most intensive contribution of ICT has been recognized for coke and related products, electrical equipment and chemicals and related products. This effect has shown more than any other manufacturing industries in Iran and this amount has also improved over time. The lowest share of ICT in productivity growth in the long run is related to furniture, clothing and machinery and not classified equipments. The results  also showed that the average value of increasing ICT intensity index is insignificant meaning the more  and with increasing intensity of ICT use, the more intense effect on productivity growth increases.

Making more profit in organizations requires them to have accurate tools to strengthen the business for proper financial planning. So far, no comprehensive model for the financial planning of organizations with minimum deviation from predefined goals has been presented. The purpose of this study is to provide such a model to achieve more accurate management decisions. In this research, an intelligent adaptive control model has been developed using the Elman neural network adaptation algorithm in the system identification process. This model has been developed using data extracted from the official website of the Iranian Stock Exchange and Securities Organization. Some of the most important indicators of profit (as a measure of the company's financial performance) and also optimal profit amount as input and the allowable intervals of its changes to achieve the desired profit as output of the model have been determined and examined.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of different types of bank loans on income inequality in the economies of 24 selected developing countries using the econometric method of panel data during the period 2000-2019. The results showed that credits to the non-financial sector as well as consumption reduce inequality and credits to the financial and housing sectors increase inequality. Lending to the non-financial sector has also been declining, and lending to the consumer, financial and mortgage sectors has been on the rise. The findings also showed that the employment rate and housing prices, respectively, affect the effect of loans granted to the non-financial and housing sectors on income inequality. Allocate a significant portion of the credit to non-financial and productive businesses.

In the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the main model, while using the estimated parameters, the effects of oil shocks in recent years on selected macroeconomic variables have been evaluated. Determining the degree to which oil revenues affect economic indicators can, in addition to determining the degree of economic resilience, help policymakers determine future plans. The phenomenon of fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, due to the dependence of the structure of Iran's economy on oil revenues, affects all macroeconomic variables - both in the public and private sectors. Accordingly, it is proposed to reform the tax system and reduce dependence on oil revenues, diversify the government's revenue portfolio, commit to a balanced budget and prevent disproportionate growth of the monetary base, strengthen the role of the foreign exchange reserve fund and monetary discipline for the government.