نشریه مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا
پیاپی 5 (بهار 1401)

The victory of the Islamic Revolution and the presence of Iran as one of the future powers in the Islamic world and the international system is a turning point in serious competition in Iranian -American relations. Because Iran, as one of the key proposals in regional and global developments, is a threat to the profound interests of the United States and its allies. Accordingly, the United States has always tried to rely on its soft and hard power sources in the Iranians, relying on its soft and hard power sources, which has so far been unable to achieve this. The opposite, influence and influence of the values of the revolution on nations and countries in the region has become more and more unhappy with Israeli American interventions. It is also evaluated that the United States is going through the decline of power, and it is expected that future developments will provide conditions for the expansion and influence of its competitors such as China and Russia. In view of the above, the main question of the research can be drawn: What is the scenario or scenarios for the future of American power with emphasis on uncertainty? To answer the main question of the research, scenario writing and future scenarios are designed to American power and influenced by Iran's future position and the research achievements are exploratory. The text of the article consists of the sections of the subject, identifying actors, proponents, and identifying uncertainties, and ultimately designing the framework and writing scenarios.

Ethnicity; Ethnic tendencies and feelings and hostility to foreign groups that have several generations of permanence and persistence and are studied in the context of social disruptions. A phenomenon that reinforces feelings of kinship, racial affiliation, underestimation of the identity and culture of others, and intensifies separatism.By examining and analyzing this social problem through a grounded theory, a paradigm model based on the perceptions and interpretations of actors and experts has been presented. Causal conditions are the link between the set of factors and political-security and cultural-social interventions of foreign forces and internal factors such as discrimination and the weakness of diplomacy as the bedrock of external factors. The basis conditions include feelings of relative deprivation, geographical location, ethnocentrism, ethnic cohesion under nationalism, Iran-friendliness, Shiism, and Azeri identity-seeking, weak flaws, and non-segregated protests. Intervention conditions are the cohesion of foreign mass media in making waves, the weakness of national and local media, historical oblivion, the transformation of sports clubs into rallies, and the surfing of ethnic groups. Strategies include: enlightenment of public opinion, development of social justice, social pathology, strengthening of Islamic rituals, political-security confrontation with foreign forces, national identity and strengthening of national and local media .Consequences: Decreased national legitimacy and authority, threat to social security, weakening of beliefs, increasing social challenges, ethnic divergence, gap in national unity and the possibility of armed war and foreign interference.

The present study seeks to draw the requirements of the strategic relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its strategic partnership options with various blocks of power in a post -Western international system. Under the transition of the International System, what requirements should the macro -foreign policy approach and Iran's strategic partnership options have to consider? Due to the unique geostrategic position at the peripheral environmental equations, Iran has fundamentally affected the process of redistribution of power and wealth in the international system. Emerging powers such as Iran, once marginalized by the material and discourse of a Western order from the equations of the international system, were marginalized. They now have an unprecedented opportunity to challenge the dominant order with revisionists and to focus on international and regional change policy agenda. However, the strategic partnership of emerging powers in the transition of the international system is often limited to this unstable transition, and with another order, the contexts that form their strategic unity are transformed, and the new contexts necessarily cooperate and the transitional partnership in the strategic security areas is not reproduced. In the context of such an understanding, 'strategic loneliness' should not be considered as a prerequisite or prerequisite. Under the transition of the international system, which is the main characteristic of the redistribution of power, wealth and rewriting of international rules, strategic loneliness is not a relative advantage but a potential threat to Iran's strategic interests. “Diversity to Geopolitical Approach Foreign Policy”, “Multi-functionalism” through “Balance of Relations with Asia and Europe”, “Coalition Based on emerging issues” and ... are key requirements of the Islamic Republic of Iran's active and independent role in the Post -Western International System.

Assuming the US expulsion from the Persian Gulf, this article seeks to answer the question, what are the possible scenarios for how to fill the power vacuum in the region after the expulsion of American forces from the Persian Gulf and the reduction of its hegemony and presence in the region? The article considers three logical cases to answer this question: the first case is "filling this gap by supra-regional powers", the second case is "filling the gap by regional powers" and the third case is "partnership between regional powers and powers "There is a meta-region to fill the vacuum." The authors of the article have tried to show that the third case is more likely to occur in the medium term than the other two cases by enumerating possible examples for each of the aforementioned cases; This is because the arrangement of international power and the presupposition of the rule of rationality over the decisions of the stakeholders make the occurrence of this formulation more probable than the other two cases. The article seeks to provide a realistic understanding of the medium-term future of the Persian Gulf region after the US expulsion by adopting a method of realism and observing, collecting and refining data from sources owned by stakeholders in the event in question..

Afghanistan being situated in a geostrategic position, plays an important role in the developments in Asia and the Middle East. This position has made it very important for other global and regional actors to pay attention to domestic events in this country. In this regard, examining the compliance of the US military presence in Afghanistan and its withdrawal with the indicators of Just War as a tool it has used to justify its actions can indicate the real goals of the US presence in Afghanistan. Thus, the hypothesis of the article is that a military invasion of Afghanistan with the ideological backing of a Just War would expand US dominance and influence in the Central Asian region on the one hand, and secure its economic interests by imposing military spending on Afghanistan and other countries of the region, on the other hand; and leaving without a preamble is only in the direction of securing the same benefits. In fact, the United States pursued immoral goals in Afghanistan with moral justification, and when it failed to achieve them, abandoned those justifications and, in a hasty exit, showed that the immoral aspect of its presence has been heavier than its moral one.

It is difficult to analyze the foreign policy of the People's Republic of China in West Asia and accurately delineate its boundaries during the transitional period. It's also challenging to apprehend gradual changes in US foreign policy doctrine along with the ongoing shift in global balance of power. Nevertheless, the country's patterns of behavior in the face of emerging trends, developments, and issues, as well as the region's key players, have become so cohesive that we can get a clear understanding of China's foreign policy in West Asia. By examining the works of China's scientific society, this article seeks to answer the question, “What is the perception and image of the evolution of the American hegemonic position, the level and nature of its power in the West Asian in the scientific circles of China? And according to it, what strategy is on the agenda of China's foreign policy?” The present study finds that China's foreign policy perceptions of the US hegemonic position in West Asia are based on the assumption of strategic contraction and therefore it’s seeking an offshore balancing strategy. According to this approach, China's foreign policy strategy in West Asia is based on "strategic hedging and controlling it amid rivalry between regional and trans-regional powers", "establishing a stable framework for relations with all countries in the region to ensure energy security", "gradual consolidation of the boundaries of alternative regional order" and finally "great power responsibility and responsible participation in regional affairs"..