نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 49 (بهار 1401)

The exchange rate refers to the ratio of prices in two countries and its deviation from the balanced rate causes instability in macroeconomic variables such as Import, Export, price level, and financial markets. Also, regarding the increasing pace of the global economy toward a knowledge-based economy, it seems important to study the effect of the economic complexity on other economic variables. In this study, economic complexity, which indicates the degree of diversity and ubiquity of countries' products, has been used as one of the most important components of the knowledge-based economy. it is clear that more economic complexity leads to more competitive ability in the global market and, as a consequence, will lower the exchange rate. The present study has investigated the impact of Economic Complexity on exchange rates in selected developing knowledge-based countries during 2007-2019 using GMM. The results show that Economic Complexity had a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate. In addition, other control variables like money supply had a positive effect, and trade balance and political stability had a negative impact on the exchange rate. Therefore, governments' policies should lead to more economic complexity.

This study investigated trade integration and the role of Iran in ECO and D8 trade agreements in this study. The regional trade integration index and centrality indices for ECO and D8 agreements were measured by using the data of 150 countries during 1980-2019 and complex networks approach. The results from regional trade integration index revealed that trade relations of these two agreements’ members with each other, was very lower than their trade relations with other countries out of the agreements. Also, the findings from Iranian’s regional trade integration index in ECO and D8 agreements showed that trade relations of Iran with the members of these two agreements was very lower than trade relations with other countries. Therefore, ECO and D8 agreements have not had considerable impact on developing trade relations of Iran with other members of the afore mentioned agreements. strength centrality index indicated that bilateral trade of the country with the members of ECO and D8 has decreased during the years of study. Also, eigenvector centrality index for the members of ECO and D8 was relatively low in 1980,1990 and 2000 and it was improved in 2010 and 2019. Density index for ECO and D8 show that the trade relations between their members have insufficient integration.

Trade and climate change are some of the important factors affecting income inequality. With the globalization and trade interrelationships between countries, income inequality has been reduced to some extent. On the other hand, climate change as an important and current issue in the world has had great effects on economic growth and income inequality of countries. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between trade and climate change and income inequality. To examine the asymmetric effects of trade and climate change on income inequality in 60 countries, the quantile panel regression model is used by 2010 to 2020 data. In addition, the Climate Change Performance Index for climate change and the Trade Openness Index for trade has been used. The results show that climate change over the years has increased income inequality in selected countries. Also, the results show that the third to seventh quantiles of income have been most affected by climate change. On the other hand, trade between countries has reduced the inequality of selected countries in different income quantiles.

In today's world, the interconnected structures of modern economies have caused the crisis to spread from one sector or country to other countries or sectors of the economy. Empirical evidence has shown that markets are interconnected and do not move apart. In the present study, a new approach is presented to investigate the contagion effect in Iran stock market. First, with the economic analysis, a network of 36 selected industries of Iran's economy is formed in accordance with the industries active in the stock market and the weight of the edges that connect them is determined according to the input- output table of Iran. In the next step, a correlation network is formed between the stock market indices of these 36 industries by using centrality criteria, Key industries are identified and then attacked. Comparison of the results of the two networks show that only in a limited number of cases in both networks, the basic metals industry, the banking industry, investment and other financial intermediaries, and the agricultural industry have won first place in accordance with a number of centrality criteria. But in other cases, the two networks have not the same results, which shows that economic relations among industries do not dominate their stock market index relations alone. The results of this study help both policymakers and shareholders to make appropriate decisions as soon as they see a crisis in important industries of the stock market.

In this study, the effects of institutional factors and human capital on economic growth in developing countries are examined. For this purpose, by using the panel data during the years 2010-2018 for a selection of developing countries, the results show that institutional factors such as indicators of business regulation and emerging entrepreneurship foreign direct investment, human capital and the formation of gross domestic fixed capital has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of selected countries. In addition, the business regulation index, government spending on education and economic growth rate has ‌a positive and significant effect on the business climate index in developing countries. Therefore, based on the findings of the study, the need for development oriented strategic planning in order to implement institutional and legal requirements to facilitate business environment and encourage entrepreneurship, as well as reform and changing general, vocational and specialized education programs with the approach of training potential entrepreneurs, can provide suitable conditions for the emergence of entrepreneurial businesses, especially technology based.

Since Women are the foundation of economic development in any society, nowadays the world is more focused on their role in economic activity. Therefore, considering women as an active and constructive sector will certainly have a great impact on the development and increase of human resources in that society in terms of quality and quantity. The participation rate of women in Syria, like many countries in the Middle East, is lower than developed countries and even some developing countries. In this study, the effects of education, fertility rate, school enrollment rate, and migration rate on the rate of female labor force participation in the Syrian economy during the period 2000-2019 have been studied by using the auto-regressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the variables of education and migration rate (where men make up most of the migrants) have a positive and significant effect on women's economic participation rate. However, fertility rate and school enrollment rate have a negative effect on Syrian women's economic participation.